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Bitcoin struggles to break the $70,000 barrier, with the fear and greed index remaining in a state of 'extreme fear'
I accidentally came across a candlestick chart from the last bear market.
In the months before the actual collapse, the market was still discussing "Is this the bottom?",
no one would believe it would eventually drop to 9 dollars.
Every rebound at that time was seen as hope;
every drop was explained as "the last drop."
But a true bear market is never determined by a single large bearish candle,
it is slowly pushed towards an unimaginable abyss through the repeated consensus of "it will go back up."
The most cruel part of history lies here —
the top is built on optimism,
the bottom is hammered out of despair.
In the months before the actual collapse, the market was still discussing "Is this the bottom?",
no one would believe it would eventually drop to 9 dollars.
Every rebound at that time was seen as hope;
every drop was explained as "the last drop."
But a true bear market is never determined by a single large bearish candle,
it is slowly pushed towards an unimaginable abyss through the repeated consensus of "it will go back up."
The most cruel part of history lies here —
the top is built on optimism,
the bottom is hammered out of despair.
Polymarket users predict that the probability of Bitcoin reaching 60,000 dollars before it reaches 80,000 dollars is 68%.
Funds continue to flow out, $BTC maintains a downward trend🧐
Unlike the previous panic crash, there is now a lack of buying interest.
IV has not surged because this is not a sudden black swan event, but rather a known and ongoing selling pressure.
Institutions are no longer trying to catch the bottom, instead opting to sell a large number of call options, with the proportion of large call options soaring to 43.25%, far exceeding the 29.21% for large put options.
Institutional traders do not expect a rise, shifting to earn premiums, effectively putting a lid on the market and stifling rebound potential.
Skew has rebounded, but prices have fallen; this is not a divergence, but rather apathy.
The market has accepted the reality of the decline and is no longer frantically buying puts for hedging. This is a typical characteristic of a downward trend: low volatility, gradual decline.
Current prices are far from the pain point, and market makers are powerless to defend the market, only able to hedge in the direction of the trend. #btc
Unlike the previous panic crash, there is now a lack of buying interest.
IV has not surged because this is not a sudden black swan event, but rather a known and ongoing selling pressure.
Institutions are no longer trying to catch the bottom, instead opting to sell a large number of call options, with the proportion of large call options soaring to 43.25%, far exceeding the 29.21% for large put options.
Institutional traders do not expect a rise, shifting to earn premiums, effectively putting a lid on the market and stifling rebound potential.
Skew has rebounded, but prices have fallen; this is not a divergence, but rather apathy.
The market has accepted the reality of the decline and is no longer frantically buying puts for hedging. This is a typical characteristic of a downward trend: low volatility, gradual decline.
Current prices are far from the pain point, and market makers are powerless to defend the market, only able to hedge in the direction of the trend. #btc
Discover a very strange phenomenon
In this round, about 90% of KOLs publicly express their opinions on the bottom range around 40,000 to 50,000
The consensus in this range is a bit too strong
Just like the previous consensus guessing Bitcoin's peak at 150,000.
In this round, about 90% of KOLs publicly express their opinions on the bottom range around 40,000 to 50,000
The consensus in this range is a bit too strong
Just like the previous consensus guessing Bitcoin's peak at 150,000.
The fear and greed index of cryptocurrency has dropped to 5, lower than the COVID-19 index and the FTX index.
The Nine Gods Index is about to become ineffective.
It can be seen that the ahr999 hoarding indicator fluctuates lower with each round of bull market, and with the change in the funding structure of Bitcoin, many old indicators are not as accurate anymore.
This time the price peaked just slightly above the dollar-cost averaging line, and if one tries to carve a boat to seek a sword, it will be very tragic.
#BTC
This time, during the bear market bottom-fishing, I'm afraid we can't completely reference ahr999.
It can be seen that the ahr999 hoarding indicator fluctuates lower with each round of bull market, and with the change in the funding structure of Bitcoin, many old indicators are not as accurate anymore.
This time the price peaked just slightly above the dollar-cost averaging line, and if one tries to carve a boat to seek a sword, it will be very tragic.
#BTC
This time, during the bear market bottom-fishing, I'm afraid we can't completely reference ahr999.
Market View
Bitcoin is approaching the support at 64700, perhaps a position to go long
After consolidating between 69000-70000, Bitcoin has chosen to move down, currently running roughly according to the lines we drew
A small rebound after a short-term low at 65800
I believe there may be one more drop to 64700 and below
The specific area for buying should be between 64700-62700
The major support below is the bottom range of 57-40, and I still believe it won't reach that quickly (otherwise, I wouldn't know how to write the subsequent script)
Therefore, going long back at 60,000 is still worth considering
For the long term, I believe the range of 57-40 is a must-go, so 60,000 is not the lowest point of this bear market
If you do not participate in short-term/medium-term trading, you can also wait for the long-term buying area
Additionally, it can be seen that SOL has once again fallen below 80, and if it cannot stabilize at 80, I also believe that a final synchronized drop to 50 is a high-probability event
This does not mean I will short SOL; to a greater extent, if it can reach around 50, I would accumulate spot.
Bitcoin is approaching the support at 64700, perhaps a position to go long
After consolidating between 69000-70000, Bitcoin has chosen to move down, currently running roughly according to the lines we drew
A small rebound after a short-term low at 65800
I believe there may be one more drop to 64700 and below
The specific area for buying should be between 64700-62700
The major support below is the bottom range of 57-40, and I still believe it won't reach that quickly (otherwise, I wouldn't know how to write the subsequent script)
Therefore, going long back at 60,000 is still worth considering
For the long term, I believe the range of 57-40 is a must-go, so 60,000 is not the lowest point of this bear market
If you do not participate in short-term/medium-term trading, you can also wait for the long-term buying area
Additionally, it can be seen that SOL has once again fallen below 80, and if it cannot stabilize at 80, I also believe that a final synchronized drop to 50 is a high-probability event
This does not mean I will short SOL; to a greater extent, if it can reach around 50, I would accumulate spot.
Domestic: The blockchain industry will eventually come to an end
As the pressure from regulatory authorities increases and compliance progress accelerates, the entire blockchain industry will decline to leave only a small number of protocols and specific use cases within 5 years. The overall market value will shrink to less than one-tenth of the current level.
The biggest reasons are two points: 1. Lack of use cases 2. Compliance pressure. Among them, 2 is the most fundamental issue.
Lack of use cases
As we all know, the characteristics of blockchain are a) No need for trust b) Distributed c) Transparency d) Immutability
However, the core issue is,
- What practical problems can these characteristics solve that could not be solved before?
- How many people are willing to pay for these characteristics?
The biggest reasons are two points: 1. Lack of use cases 2. Compliance pressure. Among them, 2 is the most fundamental issue.
Lack of use cases
As we all know, the characteristics of blockchain are a) No need for trust b) Distributed c) Transparency d) Immutability
However, the core issue is,
- What practical problems can these characteristics solve that could not be solved before?
- How many people are willing to pay for these characteristics?
The global uncertainty index has risen parabolically, reaching a historic high.
What is everyone worried about? 🤔
What is everyone worried about? 🤔
BTC Spot Bottoming Four Stages:
Below 50,000: Sell everything that can be sold
Below 40,000: Sell everything that can be sold for a body
Below 30,000: Borrow everything that can be borrowed
Below 20,000: Sell all the organs that can be sold
Below 10,000: Remember to call me to sell together 😂
The later it gets, the more it tests true love.
Below 50,000: Sell everything that can be sold
Below 40,000: Sell everything that can be sold for a body
Below 30,000: Borrow everything that can be borrowed
Below 20,000: Sell all the organs that can be sold
Below 10,000: Remember to call me to sell together 😂
The later it gets, the more it tests true love.
Many people haven't figured out which stage of the bear market we are currently in, yet they keep saying we're at the bottom 😅 It's really embarrassing. Let me explain, all bear markets are divided into 5 stages. We are currently in the transition period between stages 1 and 2.
1⃣ The first stage makes people truly believe that a bear market has arrived, generally with a decline of 40%-50%, so-called halving, which has to make everyone really feel the pain once.
2⃣ The second stage makes people doubt that the bull market is over, generally recovering some of the lost ground, and in this process, many speculative projects will emerge, like the running shoes from back in the day.
3⃣ The third stage sees prices drop to the point where everyone doubts life itself, leading to DeFi liquidations, the fall of giant whales, and star projects crashing; at this point, prices should drop 70%-80% compared to the peak.
4⃣ The fourth stage is the final divergence and sideways trading, where everyone believes the bottom has been formed, and then positions are established.
5⃣ The fifth stage is the final drop, where the last remaining believers sell at a loss.
So far, it is clearly at the end of the first stage. If you have lost money in this stage, don't feel discouraged now. Hold on, and wait for the second stage to turn around.
1⃣ The first stage makes people truly believe that a bear market has arrived, generally with a decline of 40%-50%, so-called halving, which has to make everyone really feel the pain once.
2⃣ The second stage makes people doubt that the bull market is over, generally recovering some of the lost ground, and in this process, many speculative projects will emerge, like the running shoes from back in the day.
3⃣ The third stage sees prices drop to the point where everyone doubts life itself, leading to DeFi liquidations, the fall of giant whales, and star projects crashing; at this point, prices should drop 70%-80% compared to the peak.
4⃣ The fourth stage is the final divergence and sideways trading, where everyone believes the bottom has been formed, and then positions are established.
5⃣ The fifth stage is the final drop, where the last remaining believers sell at a loss.
So far, it is clearly at the end of the first stage. If you have lost money in this stage, don't feel discouraged now. Hold on, and wait for the second stage to turn around.
The global uncertainty index has reached a historical high.
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