Nicolas de Luusc
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🇮🇳 **India’s Gold Imports Hit a New Record**
India’s gold imports have just surged to a fresh record high, signaling strong physical demand from the East. This robust buying activity reinforces the bullish momentum in the gold market, especially as global physical flows continue to tighten
Strong imports from India — one of the world’s largest gold consumers — suggest that underlying demand remains resilient despite price volatility. Combined with supportive macro factors such as softer real yields, currency uncertainty, and structural central bank accumulation, the physical market is adding another layer of strength to gold’s broader uptrend #CreatorpadVN
As Eastern demand accelerates, supply constraints in the physical market could amplify price movements, particularly if investment flows re-engage in parallel.
#GOLD #India $BNB
India’s gold imports have just surged to a fresh record high, signaling strong physical demand from the East. This robust buying activity reinforces the bullish momentum in the gold market, especially as global physical flows continue to tighten
Strong imports from India — one of the world’s largest gold consumers — suggest that underlying demand remains resilient despite price volatility. Combined with supportive macro factors such as softer real yields, currency uncertainty, and structural central bank accumulation, the physical market is adding another layer of strength to gold’s broader uptrend #CreatorpadVN
As Eastern demand accelerates, supply constraints in the physical market could amplify price movements, particularly if investment flows re-engage in parallel.
#GOLD #India $BNB
🚨 Mỹ đã triển khai quân sự ngay trước cửa nhà Iran.
Mỹ đang triển khai lực lượng quân sự khổng lồ ngay sát biên giới Iran. Hơn 50 máy bay chiến đấu, máy bay ném bom hạng nặng, các nhóm tác chiến tàu sân bay và các phi đội máy bay tiếp nhiên liệu. Và quy mô này vẫn đang tiếp tục tăng lên.
#CreatorpadVN $BNB
Đây là đợt tăng cường quân sự lớn nhất của Mỹ ở Trung Đông kể từ cuộc xâm lược Iraq năm 2003 — gần bằng quy mô của Chiến tranh vùng Vịnh năm 1991.
@Binance_vietnam
Mỹ đang triển khai lực lượng quân sự khổng lồ ngay sát biên giới Iran. Hơn 50 máy bay chiến đấu, máy bay ném bom hạng nặng, các nhóm tác chiến tàu sân bay và các phi đội máy bay tiếp nhiên liệu. Và quy mô này vẫn đang tiếp tục tăng lên.
#CreatorpadVN $BNB
Đây là đợt tăng cường quân sự lớn nhất của Mỹ ở Trung Đông kể từ cuộc xâm lược Iraq năm 2003 — gần bằng quy mô của Chiến tranh vùng Vịnh năm 1991.
@Binance_vietnam
🇺🇸 TARIFF SHOWDOWN: U.S. SUPREME COURT VS. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP
💥 Landmark Ruling
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Donald Trump exceeded his authority by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad tariffs without explicit Congressional approval. The decision marks a significant legal challenge to executive-driven trade policy.
⚖ Legal Implications
Tariffs enacted under IEEPA are considered unlawful under the ruling.An estimated $130–175 billion in collected tariff revenue could face potential refund risk (no final repayment decision yet).Importantly, the entire U.S. tariff framework is not invalidated, as the administration may rely on alternative legal authorities under existing trade laws.
🗣 Trump’s Response
Strongly criticized the decision, calling it “disgraceful.”Vowed to continue legal battles.Quickly signed a new executive order introducing a 10%–15% global tariff, citing a different statutory basis.
📈 Market Perspective
Major institutions, including Goldman Sachs, suggest the ruling does not signal the end of U.S. tariffs. The White House retains multiple legal mechanisms to maintain trade restrictions.
🎯 Bottom Line
This is not the end of Trump’s tariff policy — it is the beginning of a new legal confrontation between the executive branch and the judiciary. The outcome could reshape global trade flows, fiscal revenue expectations, and broader financial market stability.
#DonaldTrump #USTrade #usd #Macro #CreatorpadVN
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Donald Trump exceeded his authority by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad tariffs without explicit Congressional approval. The decision marks a significant legal challenge to executive-driven trade policy.
⚖ Legal Implications
Tariffs enacted under IEEPA are considered unlawful under the ruling.An estimated $130–175 billion in collected tariff revenue could face potential refund risk (no final repayment decision yet).Importantly, the entire U.S. tariff framework is not invalidated, as the administration may rely on alternative legal authorities under existing trade laws.
🗣 Trump’s Response
Strongly criticized the decision, calling it “disgraceful.”Vowed to continue legal battles.Quickly signed a new executive order introducing a 10%–15% global tariff, citing a different statutory basis.
📈 Market Perspective
Major institutions, including Goldman Sachs, suggest the ruling does not signal the end of U.S. tariffs. The White House retains multiple legal mechanisms to maintain trade restrictions.
🎯 Bottom Line
This is not the end of Trump’s tariff policy — it is the beginning of a new legal confrontation between the executive branch and the judiciary. The outcome could reshape global trade flows, fiscal revenue expectations, and broader financial market stability.
#DonaldTrump #USTrade #usd #Macro #CreatorpadVN
#creatorpadvn $BTC $BNB
🇺🇸 **U.S. Fiscal Outlook: $23 Trillion in Deficits Ahead?**
Projections show that the U.S. federal budget deficit could accumulate **around $23 trillion between 2026 and 2035**, with annual deficits approaching — and potentially exceeding — **$3 trillion by the middle of the next decade**.
What makes this more concerning is that these estimates **do not assume a recession**. The persistent shortfall reflects **structural pressures**, including rising mandatory spending (Social Security, Medicare) and growing interest payments on existing debt.
📊 **Why this matters:**
* Fiscal sustainability is becoming more fragile
* Debt issuance is likely to increase significantly over the medium and long term
* Higher supply of Treasuries could impact yields and liquidity conditions
* Long-term implications for the USD and risk assets
The key takeaway: this isn’t a cyclical deficit story — it’s structural. And structural imbalances tend to reshape markets over time.
#USD #FiscalPolicy #USDebt #Treasuries #Macro #GlobalMarkets
🇺🇸 **U.S. Fiscal Outlook: $23 Trillion in Deficits Ahead?**
Projections show that the U.S. federal budget deficit could accumulate **around $23 trillion between 2026 and 2035**, with annual deficits approaching — and potentially exceeding — **$3 trillion by the middle of the next decade**.
What makes this more concerning is that these estimates **do not assume a recession**. The persistent shortfall reflects **structural pressures**, including rising mandatory spending (Social Security, Medicare) and growing interest payments on existing debt.
📊 **Why this matters:**
* Fiscal sustainability is becoming more fragile
* Debt issuance is likely to increase significantly over the medium and long term
* Higher supply of Treasuries could impact yields and liquidity conditions
* Long-term implications for the USD and risk assets
The key takeaway: this isn’t a cyclical deficit story — it’s structural. And structural imbalances tend to reshape markets over time.
#USD #FiscalPolicy #USDebt #Treasuries #Macro #GlobalMarkets
#fogo $FOGO 🌎 **Tariff Relief for Major Exporters After US Court Ruling**
China, India, and Brazil are among the countries now benefiting from **lower effective tariffs on exports to the United States**, after a federal court ruled that President Trump’s use of the *International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)* to impose tariffs was unlawful.
Although Trump later announced plans for a **15% global tariff**, Bloomberg Economics estimates the effective average tariff rate would land closer to **12%** — the lowest level since the so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs introduced in April.
📊 **Why this matters:**
* Eases near-term trade pressure on key emerging markets
* Could support global supply chains and commodity demand
* May reduce upward pressure on the USD if tariff intensity softens
* Improves short-term sentiment for risk assets
That said, policy uncertainty remains high. Markets will now watch for legal appeals, political responses, and potential adjustments to the tariff framework.
#Tariffs #USD #Macro #EmergingMarkets #GlobalTrade #China #India #Brazil
China, India, and Brazil are among the countries now benefiting from **lower effective tariffs on exports to the United States**, after a federal court ruled that President Trump’s use of the *International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)* to impose tariffs was unlawful.
Although Trump later announced plans for a **15% global tariff**, Bloomberg Economics estimates the effective average tariff rate would land closer to **12%** — the lowest level since the so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs introduced in April.
📊 **Why this matters:**
* Eases near-term trade pressure on key emerging markets
* Could support global supply chains and commodity demand
* May reduce upward pressure on the USD if tariff intensity softens
* Improves short-term sentiment for risk assets
That said, policy uncertainty remains high. Markets will now watch for legal appeals, political responses, and potential adjustments to the tariff framework.
#Tariffs #USD #Macro #EmergingMarkets #GlobalTrade #China #India #Brazil
Greenland Shifts Focus Back to Tourism as Geopolitical Noise Fades
🌍 After months of headlines surrounding former President Trump’s takeover rhetoric, attention around Greenland is cooling — and the Arctic territory is redirecting focus toward economic development, particularly tourism.
In 2025, direct U.S. flights to Nuuk helped double international arrivals compared to the previous year. With tensions easing, Greenland is prioritising infrastructure upgrades and expanding air connections ahead of the 2026 summer season.
While logistical challenges remain, officials are betting that global curiosity — initially sparked by geopolitics — can translate into long-term tourism growth.
📌 What was once a geopolitical flashpoint is now turning into an economic opportunity story.
#Geopolitics #GreenlandTrade #GlobalTrend
In 2025, direct U.S. flights to Nuuk helped double international arrivals compared to the previous year. With tensions easing, Greenland is prioritising infrastructure upgrades and expanding air connections ahead of the 2026 summer season.
While logistical challenges remain, officials are betting that global curiosity — initially sparked by geopolitics — can translate into long-term tourism growth.
📌 What was once a geopolitical flashpoint is now turning into an economic opportunity story.
#Geopolitics #GreenlandTrade #GlobalTrend
Vitalik Selling ETH Again — Bearish Signal or Routine Move?
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has resumed selling $ETH after a two-week pause.
🔹 In the past 2 days: 1,869 ETH sold (~$3.67M)
🔹 ETH price dropped from $1,988 → $1,875 (-5.7%)
🔹 Earlier in February: 6,958 ETH (~$14.78M) sold
🔹 ETH fell from $2,360 → $1,825 (-22.7%) during that period
On-chain data shows he withdrew 3,500 ETH from Aave (Feb 22) and sold portions via Cow Protocol.
📊 Is this a dump?
While traders quickly label this as bearish, context matters:
• Total ETH sold since early Feb ≈ $15M
• ETH market cap ≈ $226B
• The amount represents <0.002% of total supply
Historically, Vitalik’s sales are linked to:
DonationsPersonal expensesEthereum Foundation treasury management
Not coordinated “panic selling".
⚠️ Market psychology matters more than size
Even if the amount is small, optics can impact sentiment — especially during a dip.
If ETH continues sliding, narratives may intensify.
If ETH stabilises, this is likely to fade into routine treasury activity.
📌 Watch:
• $1,850 support zone
• Broader risk sentiment
• BTC correlation
For now, this looks more like liquidity management than capitulation — but in crypto, perception can move faster than fundamentals.
#ETH #Vitalik
🔹 In the past 2 days: 1,869 ETH sold (~$3.67M)
🔹 ETH price dropped from $1,988 → $1,875 (-5.7%)
🔹 Earlier in February: 6,958 ETH (~$14.78M) sold
🔹 ETH fell from $2,360 → $1,825 (-22.7%) during that period
On-chain data shows he withdrew 3,500 ETH from Aave (Feb 22) and sold portions via Cow Protocol.
📊 Is this a dump?
While traders quickly label this as bearish, context matters:
• Total ETH sold since early Feb ≈ $15M
• ETH market cap ≈ $226B
• The amount represents <0.002% of total supply
Historically, Vitalik’s sales are linked to:
DonationsPersonal expensesEthereum Foundation treasury management
Not coordinated “panic selling".
⚠️ Market psychology matters more than size
Even if the amount is small, optics can impact sentiment — especially during a dip.
If ETH continues sliding, narratives may intensify.
If ETH stabilises, this is likely to fade into routine treasury activity.
📌 Watch:
• $1,850 support zone
• Broader risk sentiment
• BTC correlation
For now, this looks more like liquidity management than capitulation — but in crypto, perception can move faster than fundamentals.
#ETH #Vitalik
📆 **ECONOMIC CALENDAR — WEEK OF FEB 23–28, 2026 (U.S. ET)
----------------------------------------------------
1️⃣ **President Donald Trump Speech**
📅 **Tuesday — 9:00 PM ET**
(Originally Wednesday 09:00 Vietnam time)
$BTC
2️⃣ **Initial Jobless Claims (U.S.)**
📅 **Thursday — 8:30 AM ET**
(Already aligned with standard U.S. release time)
$ETH
3️⃣ **Producer Price Index (PPI) — January**
📅 **Friday — 8:30 AM ET**
(Already aligned with standard U.S. release time)
---
📊 **Key Focus:**
• Political tone from the White House
• Labor market momentum
• Inflation pressure via PPI
Expect volatility around headline releases 👀
----------------------------------------------------
1️⃣ **President Donald Trump Speech**
📅 **Tuesday — 9:00 PM ET**
(Originally Wednesday 09:00 Vietnam time)
$BTC
2️⃣ **Initial Jobless Claims (U.S.)**
📅 **Thursday — 8:30 AM ET**
(Already aligned with standard U.S. release time)
$ETH
3️⃣ **Producer Price Index (PPI) — January**
📅 **Friday — 8:30 AM ET**
(Already aligned with standard U.S. release time)
---
📊 **Key Focus:**
• Political tone from the White House
• Labor market momentum
• Inflation pressure via PPI
Expect volatility around headline releases 👀
Trung Quốc đang rơi vào một trạng thái mà các nhà kinh tế gọi là “giảm phát chu kỳ”, và lần này nó kéo dài bất thường. $BTC
Chỉ số giảm phát GDP âm quý thứ 11 liên tiếp, sản xuất giảm giá tháng thứ 40, trong khi tiêu dùng nội địa vẫn yếu vì khủng hoảng bất động sản chưa xử lý xong. Khi người dân thắt chặt chi tiêu, doanh nghiệp phải hạ giá để bán được hàng. Khi giá giảm, lợi nhuận co lại. Khi lợi nhuận co lại, đầu tư giảm. Và thế là vòng xoáy tự củng cố.
Điểm đáng chú ý là Trung Quốc hiện không thiếu năng lực sản xuất – họ thừa công suất. Các nhà máy vẫn chạy, nhưng cầu nội địa không hấp thụ hết. Kết quả là xuất khẩu phải gánh phần dư thừa, gây áp lực giảm giá toàn cầu, đặc biệt với kim loại công nghiệp và hàng hóa trung gian.
Về vĩ mô, giảm phát kéo dài có hai hệ quả lớn. Một là nợ trở nên nặng hơn theo thời gian vì thu nhập danh nghĩa không tăng. Hai là chính sách tiền tệ mất hiệu lực tương đối – hạ lãi suất không khiến người dân tiêu dùng mạnh hơn nếu kỳ vọng giá còn giảm.
Với thị trường hàng hóa, đây là biến số cần theo dõi kỹ. Giảm phát ở Trung Quốc thường gây áp lực lên kim loại công nghiệp trong ngắn hạn, nhưng paradox nằm ở chỗ: càng giảm phát sâu, xác suất kích thích quy mô lớn càng tăng. Và mỗi lần Trung Quốc bơm mạnh, chu kỳ hàng hóa lại có cơ hội xoay trục $BNB
Giảm phát không chỉ là câu chuyện của giá cả. Nó là câu chuyện về niềm tin và cấu trúc tăng trưởng. Và khi một nền kinh tế lớn thứ hai thế giới mắc kẹt trong vòng xoáy này, thị trường toàn cầu không thể đứng ngoài cuộc.
Chỉ số giảm phát GDP âm quý thứ 11 liên tiếp, sản xuất giảm giá tháng thứ 40, trong khi tiêu dùng nội địa vẫn yếu vì khủng hoảng bất động sản chưa xử lý xong. Khi người dân thắt chặt chi tiêu, doanh nghiệp phải hạ giá để bán được hàng. Khi giá giảm, lợi nhuận co lại. Khi lợi nhuận co lại, đầu tư giảm. Và thế là vòng xoáy tự củng cố.
Điểm đáng chú ý là Trung Quốc hiện không thiếu năng lực sản xuất – họ thừa công suất. Các nhà máy vẫn chạy, nhưng cầu nội địa không hấp thụ hết. Kết quả là xuất khẩu phải gánh phần dư thừa, gây áp lực giảm giá toàn cầu, đặc biệt với kim loại công nghiệp và hàng hóa trung gian.
Về vĩ mô, giảm phát kéo dài có hai hệ quả lớn. Một là nợ trở nên nặng hơn theo thời gian vì thu nhập danh nghĩa không tăng. Hai là chính sách tiền tệ mất hiệu lực tương đối – hạ lãi suất không khiến người dân tiêu dùng mạnh hơn nếu kỳ vọng giá còn giảm.
Với thị trường hàng hóa, đây là biến số cần theo dõi kỹ. Giảm phát ở Trung Quốc thường gây áp lực lên kim loại công nghiệp trong ngắn hạn, nhưng paradox nằm ở chỗ: càng giảm phát sâu, xác suất kích thích quy mô lớn càng tăng. Và mỗi lần Trung Quốc bơm mạnh, chu kỳ hàng hóa lại có cơ hội xoay trục $BNB
Giảm phát không chỉ là câu chuyện của giá cả. Nó là câu chuyện về niềm tin và cấu trúc tăng trưởng. Và khi một nền kinh tế lớn thứ hai thế giới mắc kẹt trong vòng xoáy này, thị trường toàn cầu không thể đứng ngoài cuộc.
🇺🇸🇹🇼 U.S. Prepares Potential $20B Arms Package for Taiwan
The Trump administration is reportedly preparing a new arms sale to Taiwan worth up to $20B. While not finalized, sources suggest the discussions are credible.
This package would add to the previously announced $11B deal in December, and may include:
MIM-104 Patriot air defense systemsNASAMS air defense systemsTwo additional undisclosed defense systems
If approved, this would rank among the largest U.S. arms sales to Taiwan in history, likely escalating tensions with China.
📌 Notably, a Trump–Xi meeting is scheduled for April, meaning geopolitical stakes could rise quickly depending on how Beijing responds.
Market angle:
Heightened cross-strait tension could impact:
👉 Semiconductor supply chains
👉 Defense stocks
👉 Safe-haven flows (USD, gold)
👉 Broader Asia risk sentiment
Geopolitics is quietly moving back to center stage.
This package would add to the previously announced $11B deal in December, and may include:
MIM-104 Patriot air defense systemsNASAMS air defense systemsTwo additional undisclosed defense systems
If approved, this would rank among the largest U.S. arms sales to Taiwan in history, likely escalating tensions with China.
📌 Notably, a Trump–Xi meeting is scheduled for April, meaning geopolitical stakes could rise quickly depending on how Beijing responds.
Market angle:
Heightened cross-strait tension could impact:
👉 Semiconductor supply chains
👉 Defense stocks
👉 Safe-haven flows (USD, gold)
👉 Broader Asia risk sentiment
Geopolitics is quietly moving back to center stage.
🇺🇸🤝🇹🇼 U.S.–Taiwan Strike Major Trade Deal
The United States has reached a new trade agreement with Taiwan, cutting tariffs to 15% while Taiwan will remove up to 99% of trade barriers and commit to purchasing $84B worth of U.S. goods.
📌 This marks a sharp shift from early 2025, when Trump threatened 32% retaliatory tariffs, later revised to 20% in August — signaling negotiations have moved toward cooperation rather than confrontation.
📊 Market Implications:
👉 Stronger trade flows could support global supply chains, especially in tech and manufacturing.
👉 Reduced tariff risk helps stabilize export outlooks.
👉 A pro-trade signal may improve risk sentiment across equities and crypto.
Bottom line: Less friction, more flow — a constructive backdrop for global markets if momentum holds 👀
📌 This marks a sharp shift from early 2025, when Trump threatened 32% retaliatory tariffs, later revised to 20% in August — signaling negotiations have moved toward cooperation rather than confrontation.
📊 Market Implications:
👉 Stronger trade flows could support global supply chains, especially in tech and manufacturing.
👉 Reduced tariff risk helps stabilize export outlooks.
👉 A pro-trade signal may improve risk sentiment across equities and crypto.
Bottom line: Less friction, more flow — a constructive backdrop for global markets if momentum holds 👀
🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims Dip — Labor Market Still Holding
First-time unemployment claims fell by 5,000 to 227,000 for the week ending Feb 12.
🔹 4-week average: Rose to 219,500 (+7,000)
🔹 Insured unemployment rate: Steady at 1.2%
🔹 Continuing claims: Climbed to 1.862M (+21,000)
🔹 4-week average continuing claims: Slightly lower at 1.846M
📊 Takeaway:
The U.S. labor market remains resilient, even as short-term fluctuations appear.
👉 Layoffs aren’t accelerating
👉 Employment conditions still relatively stable
👉 No clear stress signal — yet
For now, the job market looks more like cooling than cracking, keeping the macro outlook balanced 👀
🔹 4-week average: Rose to 219,500 (+7,000)
🔹 Insured unemployment rate: Steady at 1.2%
🔹 Continuing claims: Climbed to 1.862M (+21,000)
🔹 4-week average continuing claims: Slightly lower at 1.846M
📊 Takeaway:
The U.S. labor market remains resilient, even as short-term fluctuations appear.
👉 Layoffs aren’t accelerating
👉 Employment conditions still relatively stable
👉 No clear stress signal — yet
For now, the job market looks more like cooling than cracking, keeping the macro outlook balanced 👀
📉 **U.S. Hiring Rate Drops to Crisis-Level Territory**
The U.S. hiring rate fell to **3.3% in Dec 2025**, matching levels seen during the **2020 crisis** and marking one of the **lowest readings in ~13 years**. It’s even weaker than the 2001 recession and is approaching territory last seen during the **2008 financial crisis**.
⚠️ January data adds to the concern:
U.S. companies announced just **5,306 hiring plans** — the **lowest January figure since Challenger began tracking in 2009**.
📊 **What it signals:**
The labor market may be losing momentum faster than expected.
👉 Slower hiring → softer consumption risk
👉 Growth expectations could cool
👉 Pressure may build on the Fed to shift policy
Markets often react before the data confirms a trend — and this is a signal worth watching closely 👀
The U.S. hiring rate fell to **3.3% in Dec 2025**, matching levels seen during the **2020 crisis** and marking one of the **lowest readings in ~13 years**. It’s even weaker than the 2001 recession and is approaching territory last seen during the **2008 financial crisis**.
⚠️ January data adds to the concern:
U.S. companies announced just **5,306 hiring plans** — the **lowest January figure since Challenger began tracking in 2009**.
📊 **What it signals:**
The labor market may be losing momentum faster than expected.
👉 Slower hiring → softer consumption risk
👉 Growth expectations could cool
👉 Pressure may build on the Fed to shift policy
Markets often react before the data confirms a trend — and this is a signal worth watching closely 👀
📊 **MARKET NEWS SNAPSHOT — Feb 9, 2026** 📊
Here are the key headlines investors are watching:
🇺🇸 **Warsh Calls for Fed–Treasury Coordination**
Kevin Warsh suggested closer alignment between the **Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury**, a move that could reshape policy expectations and liquidity outlook.
🌍 **U.S.–Iran Tensions Rising**
Continued U.S. military deployments to the Middle East are fueling fears of escalation — a potential trigger for **oil volatility and risk-off sentiment**.
🇯🇵 **Japan Election Shock**
**Takaichi wins decisively**, opening the door for a stronger military role, tax cuts, expanded fiscal spending, and deeper U.S.–Japan ties — all supportive for growth but potentially impactful for currency flows.
📉 **Inflation Expectations Ease**
The NY Fed survey shows **1-year inflation expectations falling from 3.4% → 3.1%**, while 3-year and 5-year views remain stable near 3%.
👉 A subtle signal that inflation fears may be cooling.
📌 **Big Picture:**
Geopolitics are heating up, policy narratives are shifting, and inflation expectations are stabilizing — a mix that could **keep volatility elevated across stocks, bonds, and crypto** 👀
Here are the key headlines investors are watching:
🇺🇸 **Warsh Calls for Fed–Treasury Coordination**
Kevin Warsh suggested closer alignment between the **Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury**, a move that could reshape policy expectations and liquidity outlook.
🌍 **U.S.–Iran Tensions Rising**
Continued U.S. military deployments to the Middle East are fueling fears of escalation — a potential trigger for **oil volatility and risk-off sentiment**.
🇯🇵 **Japan Election Shock**
**Takaichi wins decisively**, opening the door for a stronger military role, tax cuts, expanded fiscal spending, and deeper U.S.–Japan ties — all supportive for growth but potentially impactful for currency flows.
📉 **Inflation Expectations Ease**
The NY Fed survey shows **1-year inflation expectations falling from 3.4% → 3.1%**, while 3-year and 5-year views remain stable near 3%.
👉 A subtle signal that inflation fears may be cooling.
📌 **Big Picture:**
Geopolitics are heating up, policy narratives are shifting, and inflation expectations are stabilizing — a mix that could **keep volatility elevated across stocks, bonds, and crypto** 👀
🌍 Is the USD Entering a Structural Downtrend?
Investors should look beyond short-term data and focus on structural policy shifts now unfolding $BTC
Before becoming U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent spoke of a “new Bretton Woods,” while Stephen Mirandubbed it the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” — a framework aimed at rebalancing global trade through geopolitical alignment, tariffs, and a weaker U.S. dollar.
This may already be in motion. Since Trump took office on Jan 20, 2025, the trade-weighted USD has fallen nearly 9%. A key signal is the Japanese yen, which has recently strengthened after long resistance, hinting at possible U.S.–Japan policy coordination.
⚠️ The risk: a deliberate USD weakening could destabilize U.S. mega-cap equities, now heavily owned by both foreign investors (~30%) and U.S. households at record levels.
#WhenWillBTCRebound If global capital flows reverse, volatility could spike fast.
In a world of flexible FX, capital flows — not rates — may be the most underestimated risk.
Before becoming U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent spoke of a “new Bretton Woods,” while Stephen Mirandubbed it the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” — a framework aimed at rebalancing global trade through geopolitical alignment, tariffs, and a weaker U.S. dollar.
This may already be in motion. Since Trump took office on Jan 20, 2025, the trade-weighted USD has fallen nearly 9%. A key signal is the Japanese yen, which has recently strengthened after long resistance, hinting at possible U.S.–Japan policy coordination.
⚠️ The risk: a deliberate USD weakening could destabilize U.S. mega-cap equities, now heavily owned by both foreign investors (~30%) and U.S. households at record levels.
#WhenWillBTCRebound If global capital flows reverse, volatility could spike fast.
In a world of flexible FX, capital flows — not rates — may be the most underestimated risk.
Mùa Tết Nguyên Đán: Kim loại quý & Đồng thường diễn biến ra sao?
Dữ liệu giai đoạn 2007–2025 cho thấy một mô hình khá rõ ràng quanh Tết Nguyên đán — thời điểm thanh khoản và dòng tiền tại châu Á có nhiều thay đổi.
🔎 10 ngày trước Tết:
Giá kim loại thường nhích tăng nhẹ, đặc biệt là nhóm kim loại công nghiệp như đồng và bạch kim, khi hoạt động sản xuất và nhu cầu tích trữ vẫn duy trì.
📈 Sau Tết (10–30 ngày):
Trái với quan điểm cho rằng thị trường sẽ hạ nhiệt, kim loại nhìn chung giữ được nền hỗ trợ và tăng trưởng ổn định.
⭐ Điểm đáng chú ý:
Bạc là cái tên nổi bật nhất — trung bình tăng khoảng +5% trong 30 ngày sau Tết.
Ngay cả khi loại bỏ năm 2011 (tăng đột biến +27%), bạc vẫn ghi nhận mức tăng trung bình ~3,8%.
📌 Hàm ý cho nhà đầu tư:
Tết không chỉ là câu chuyện mùa vụ — mà còn phản ánh chu kỳ nhu cầu và dòng tiền khu vực. Nếu lịch sử lặp lại, giai đoạn sau kỳ nghỉ có thể là lúc thị trường kim loại bắt đầu một nhịp vận động mới 👀
🔎 10 ngày trước Tết:
Giá kim loại thường nhích tăng nhẹ, đặc biệt là nhóm kim loại công nghiệp như đồng và bạch kim, khi hoạt động sản xuất và nhu cầu tích trữ vẫn duy trì.
📈 Sau Tết (10–30 ngày):
Trái với quan điểm cho rằng thị trường sẽ hạ nhiệt, kim loại nhìn chung giữ được nền hỗ trợ và tăng trưởng ổn định.
⭐ Điểm đáng chú ý:
Bạc là cái tên nổi bật nhất — trung bình tăng khoảng +5% trong 30 ngày sau Tết.
Ngay cả khi loại bỏ năm 2011 (tăng đột biến +27%), bạc vẫn ghi nhận mức tăng trung bình ~3,8%.
📌 Hàm ý cho nhà đầu tư:
Tết không chỉ là câu chuyện mùa vụ — mà còn phản ánh chu kỳ nhu cầu và dòng tiền khu vực. Nếu lịch sử lặp lại, giai đoạn sau kỳ nghỉ có thể là lúc thị trường kim loại bắt đầu một nhịp vận động mới 👀
💵⚖️ USD vs Precious Metals: The Inverse Relationship Is Back
After a long period of distortion from geopolitics and safe-haven flows, the classic inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar and precious metals is re-emerging.
As the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rebounds, the precious metals index has weakened, with the 60-day correlation now around −0.35 — a clear sign that USD is regaining its traditional influence over gold, silver, and the broader metals complex.
📌 Why this matters:
Every USD uptick driven by rates, U.S. data, or expectations of delayed Fed easing now becomes a direct headwind for metals, especially after an extended rally.
🔎 Bottom line:
The long-term bullish structure in metals remains intact, but the short-term outlook hinges heavily on whether the USD continues to recover.
Chasing longs at elevated levels?
This is the phase where caution matters most 👀
As the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rebounds, the precious metals index has weakened, with the 60-day correlation now around −0.35 — a clear sign that USD is regaining its traditional influence over gold, silver, and the broader metals complex.
📌 Why this matters:
Every USD uptick driven by rates, U.S. data, or expectations of delayed Fed easing now becomes a direct headwind for metals, especially after an extended rally.
🔎 Bottom line:
The long-term bullish structure in metals remains intact, but the short-term outlook hinges heavily on whether the USD continues to recover.
Chasing longs at elevated levels?
This is the phase where caution matters most 👀
📉 **Shanghai Gold Turns to Discount — Demand Cooling?** $
Gold in Shanghai is now trading at a **-0.24% discount vs LBMA**, signaling that **physical demand in China may be softening in the short term**. $BTC
But this doesn’t point to a supply issue.
👉 More likely: **profit-taking** after the recent rally
👉 Or **temporary demand fatigue** as prices reset
⚠️ The discount remains small — meaning this is **not a trend reversal**, just a short-term supply–demand adjustment.
Big picture?
Gold’s structure still looks intact… but the market may need a breather before the next move 👀
Gold in Shanghai is now trading at a **-0.24% discount vs LBMA**, signaling that **physical demand in China may be softening in the short term**. $BTC
But this doesn’t point to a supply issue.
👉 More likely: **profit-taking** after the recent rally
👉 Or **temporary demand fatigue** as prices reset
⚠️ The discount remains small — meaning this is **not a trend reversal**, just a short-term supply–demand adjustment.
Big picture?
Gold’s structure still looks intact… but the market may need a breather before the next move 👀
🚨 U.S. Delays January Jobs Report Amid Partial Government Shutdown
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed that the January 2026 employment report will not be released on schedule due to the ongoing partial government shutdown.
⚠️ Even if the government reopens soon, key datasets may still face delays, including the December JOLTS report. A new release timeline will be announced once funding is restored.
📊 Why this matters:
Markets are suddenly missing one of the most critical indicators of U.S. economic health.
👉 Less data = more uncertainty
👉 More uncertainty = higher volatility
👉 Fed expectations become harder to price
⚠️ Even if the government reopens soon, key datasets may still face delays, including the December JOLTS report. A new release timeline will be announced once funding is restored.
📊 Why this matters:
Markets are suddenly missing one of the most critical indicators of U.S. economic health.
👉 Less data = more uncertainty
👉 More uncertainty = higher volatility
👉 Fed expectations become harder to price
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