我是你光哥

本文要讲一个问题，就是在AI全面取代人类的未来，人类在经济上要如何生活。

1.AI在未来会全面取代人类

AI未来会全面取代人类，这种取代会带来全面失业。不是某些人失业，而是全人类失业。

这种情况现在已经可以看出端倪。

AI开始取代程序员的工作，程序员开始失业。失业的程序员很多去开网约车，还有去做骑手外卖小哥 。可见的未来，无人驾驶技术也会慢慢成熟，无人机快递系统也在发展。网约车司机和外卖小哥在几年之后也会大规模失业。

类人型机器人也在发展。人形机器人的发展成型意味着AI会慢慢具有直接和物理世界互动的能力，而不再依赖数学模型和大语言模型接收外部信息。等到类人型机器人可以投放市场之后，更多的工作岗位将被取代。

在可预见的未来，AI还会发展出科研能力。一旦AI发展出科研能力，科技就可以在不依赖人类的情况下自行发展，不需要人类参与。到时候，科研人员也会集体失业。

也就是在未来，人类的所有工作都会被AI取代，不存在人类可以干的工作。

也许有人会觉得所有人都不工作是好事。他们觉得在未来世界，人们都会过得非常悠闲，所有的体力活都不用你来干了，没有人挨饿，想吃什么都有，大家更在意的是精神世界的追求。比如说谁的歌写得好，还有谁的故事编得好，谁的舞跳得好。还有，人类将会很少生病，因为我们一出生基因就被修改了，人很可能一直活着，当然不发生意外的话。

问题是，谁歌唱的好，谁舞跳的好，这些文艺产业都是头部市场。百分之九十九的钱都会被明星赚走。其他的从业者基本吃不饱饭。

这就涉及到另外一个问题，就是AI会对财富分配造成怎样的影响。

2.AI对财富分配造成怎样的影响

AI的这种发展会让现有的财富分配机制直接崩溃。

我这里以房地产为例，分析一下AI成熟之后对经济系统的影响。

房地产市场分为甲方（投资人）、乙方（建筑商）和业主（购房者）。

假设甲方投资十个亿建一处楼盘。其中有一个亿是乙方的工钱，乙方动用了五百个工人每个人赚了二十万。

未来有了AI和机器人，AI只需要十万的电费就能干工人一个亿的工作。所以，工人自然全部失业。甲方只需要花十万的电费就能省下一个亿的人工成本。

可见，在AI技术成熟的未来。贫富差距会变大，资金会流入投资人的口袋不再流出。

但是这又导致了另一个问题。就是资金流入甲方口袋，导致甲方的产品卖不出去了。

还是用刚才那个例子。甲方虽然节约了将近一个亿的成本，但是，社会上所有行业都用AI会导致所有人都失业，除了甲方以外所有人的收入都下降，后果就是没人有钱买房子了。十个亿盖的房子，没有AI的时候能卖一百亿，有了AI以后，一亿都卖不出去了。

上面说的这还是AI初级阶段的情况。

AI到了高级阶段，也就是AI有了科研能力之后。那就要讨论另外一个问题了，就是AI的利益诉求是什么。

科技如果可以不依赖人类自己发展，那科技自身就会从外界获取资源来满足自身的发展。对于科技而言，人类也会变成外界。

如果这样就得考虑一下，人类到底能做什么。

这里我引用一些著名学者凯文凯利（KK）在其著作《科技想要什么》中的观点。

KK说在技术元素的眼里吧，我们是漂浮在他们周围的创造他们的神秘腺体。

这个说法就把我们说成腺体了，有点憋屈，但仔细一想，还真是腺体。我觉得可能我们跟技术元素之间的关系，用一个中国人比较熟悉的概念来说就是经手人。我们都知道，像大型国企或者国家部委之间签合同的时候，具体负责执行的那个人就叫经手人。你说这个经手人重要吗？非常重要，因为所有的细节都是他在跑，而且他还有一定的决定权，很多事他说了就算，而且这个事跑下来对经手人也是有好处的。但是你说经手人不重要吧？也真是可以没有他，因为这个大事都是上面的领导们和老板们定下来的，这是一个大的趋势，为什么交给你呢？是因为你的办事能力强，所以交给你来跑，你要是不想干的话，有的是人干。所以，摆在我们每个人面前的也是经手人这个角色，你要是不支持技术元素，你可以去过你的田园生活，没问题，但是有的是人想当这个经手人。

再退一步说，就算是现在真出了一个科技狂人吧，发明了个炸弹把整个人类都炸了，人类的文明全毁了。那对技术元素来说，无非就是浪费一点时间，就像刘欢那首歌唱的从头再来，那就再从地球上进化一个生物呗，但是这个事还得办，只不过把技术元素推举上去的这个功劳，也就是中国历史里常说的这个定策之功就不属于人类了。但是我相信绝大多数人都会顺应这个时代，去做一个尽职的经手人。

当然，经手人或者腺体是AI还没有发展到有科研能力时候的状态。等到科技可以不依赖人类自己发展，人类就会变得连腺体都不算。

这么一说，很多人又担心了，说AI，或者说科技因子会不会把我们人类灭掉，或者会不会把我们都抓起来当奴隶呢？KK认为不会，为什么不会呢？因为这种做法太low了，就是像谁强大了就把对手灭掉或者吃掉这种事，只有比较初级阶段的动物还有人类才会这么做。况且，人类的能力比AI弱太多了，用人类当奴隶效率太低了吧。

按照KK的说法，科技也就是技术元素，它想要的是大家一起进行一个无限博弈。什么是无限博弈？就是谁也不把谁灭掉，谁也别把谁欺负死，而是在一个越来越复杂、越来越自由的系统里，大家长期互动，长期进行良性博弈。

我们过去人类的历史更多是有限博弈，也就是成王败寇的逻辑，比如象棋就是一个典型的有限博弈，结果一定是谁把谁给将死了。网游魔兽世界就是个无限博弈，没有终局，游戏也没有目的，玩游戏的过程本身就是目的。

对不住各位观众，燕国地图有点长。说到这里，就要隆重有请本文的主角Web3出场。

3.Web3的作用

Web3的游戏机制可以让参与者通过玩游戏赚钱。

如果web3的链游和AI结合，又可以通过游戏采集用户的行为数据，用来给AI提供关于人类社区行为模式的研究数据。

而游戏发放的代币相当于是AI给人类的酬劳。

就像凯文凯利说的，未来人类不需要劳动。唯一的价值就是给AI提供数据。那么，这样的话web3就是人类未来唯一可遇赖以为生的工作。

就像电影《黑客帝国》里的AI把人类当做电池提供能源，而现实中的AI将人类用作数据来源。

"90% of the people in the world are idiots."

This is a fundamental common sense in the financial industry.

The person who put forward this idea is the financial tycoon George Soros.

Soros proposed this theory because there are several phenomena in the financial market.

One is that if 90% of people reach a consensus and believe that the price of a financial product will soar in the future, then that product will definitely plummet. Just like Bitcoin a few years ago. When almost the entire society thought it was valuable and everyone was chasing after it, it plummeted.

Another phenomenon is that in the financial market, 90% of people lose money, and 10% of people make money. The 10% are the players, and the 90% are the leeks. The players can cut the leeks however they want, and the leeks have no ability to resist, nor will they resist. Even if the players cut the leeks to the point of bankruptcy, the leeks will only commit suicide, not反抗 the players.

Official media always propagates that one cannot get rich overnight in the financial industry. In fact, this statement is not accurate. There are indeed people who get rich overnight in the financial industry, but it's just the 10% who get rich overnight, while the 90% go bankrupt. The money of the 90% who go bankrupt is transferred to the accounts of the 10%, and naturally, the 10% become rich overnight.

Moreover, Soros often deals with people who make money in the financial market. He found that these 10% of people differ from ordinary people in terms of behavior patterns, ways of thinking, and even moral values.

Soros simply summarized and generalized this phenomenon based on his experience in finance without delving into the reasons. I will try to analyze the reasons for this phenomenon below.

The reasons for this phenomenon are not due to low intelligence but due to two more important reasons:

First, a lack of professional knowledge, and second, herd mentality or the "sheep effect."

Lack of professional knowledge means that people specialize in different fields. With the development of technology, the total amount of knowledge in modern society far exceeds what one person can learn in a lifetime, so modern academia can only study by dividing disciplines, with different people learning knowledge in different fields. This results in everyone's knowledge being limited to specific areas, and they become almost ignorant outside their areas of expertise. For example, a basketball player may not be able to play soccer, many famous scientists may not be able to take care of themselves in daily life, and many university professors may be scammed by fraudsters using very clumsy methods, because their knowledge is limited to specific areas, and their intelligence is close to that of an idiot in other areas. Fraudsters can use interdisciplinary knowledge to defraud these university professors.

Herd mentality or the "sheep effect" refers to a person's tendency to follow the crowd when they lack professional knowledge or have intellectual deficiencies and cannot think independently about something. This behavior pattern is rational to some extent because if one doesn't understand, following others is not wrong. But the premise is that others understand. If the crowd one follows is made up of idiots, it will lead to everyone engaging in idiotic behavior.

In fact, almost all group-living animals have the instinct to follow the crowd. Humans can domesticate these group-living animals by using this instinct. For example, sheep also have the instinct to follow the crowd; they will follow the shepherd, even if the shepherd leads them to the slaughterhouse. Humans can also be domesticated in the same way, and many fraudsters are well aware of this. This is why rumors always spread faster than truth; rumors can spread by using the sheep effect, while truth is incomprehensible to those who lack professional knowledge and the ability to think independently.

In fact, some other bad things also stem from the herd instinct. For example, people form groups based on certain cultural values or ideologies, which are actually a variant of the sheep effect. For instance, online groups like Huanghan, Ming fans, Manchu remnants, Mongolian remnants, environmentalists, animal rights activists, white leftists, feminists, etc., are mostly of this type. Anyone with a bit of social experience knows that humans form groups based on common economic interests, not ideologies, and it is easy to manipulate, incite, or divide and disintegrate these groups using economic means.

Soros' theory can be used to refute the Western political and judicial systems.

The essence of Western political and judicial systems is democracy, which makes decisions based on consensus.

However, since 90% of people are idiots, consensus is not only not fact but also seriously deviates from the truth.

Take the Western judicial system as an example.

The Western judicial system equates jury consensus with fact. Moreover, in cases with insufficient evidence, the jury can engage in "mental evidence," meaning the inner conviction of the jury can serve as evidence. Furthermore, the jury cannot be questioned; questioning the jury is considered contempt of court, and the judge can directly find you guilty.
The issue is that lawyers all know that to turn an ironclad case around, it's best to sway the jury. Because judges are difficult to fool, while juries are easily swayed.
Although lawyers dare not openly question the jury, deep down, they really do regard the jury as a bunch of idiots.
It's evident that the Western democratic system is like a group of mentally challenged individuals in a psychiatric hospital, where suddenly one person declares, "The sun rises from the west." The others, due to herd mentality, chime in and say, "The sun rises from the west." Then, "The sun rises from the west" becomes the consensus, and these individuals take it as the truth, refusing to accept that the sun rises from the east.
However, don't think that Soros would oppose the Western democratic system. On the contrary, Soros has spent a large amount of money promoting the Western democratic system globally. For instance, Soros heavily funded the democratic parties in Ukraine, and the current Russia-Ukraine conflict can actually be traced back to Soros's political investments in Ukraine twenty years ago.
This precisely reflects Soros's shrewdness.
If there were no ninety percent of idiots in the world, who would financial tycoons like Soros scalp?
To play the pig-slaughtering game, one must first learn how to raise pigs.
Soros's method of doing things is like hearing a mentally challenged person say, "The sun rises from the west," and replying, "Wow, you're so smart, I didn't know that before." Soros uses this approach to get along with the mentally challenged and then says to them, "Since we have such a good relationship, why don't you give me those pieces of paper with numbers and famous faces on them." Then, the mentally challenged person gives all their money to Soros.
Reflecting on myself, I realize I'm still too young, hotheaded, and too honest.
If a fool does something foolish to offend me, I would directly call him an idiot and then argue with the idiot for a long time. But in hindsight, arguing with an idiot is a very idiotic thing to do.
When dealing with a fool who offends me by doing foolish things, I should think of a way to move all the fool's money into my house, leaving the fool penniless.

BTC is a product of apocalypticism and messianic belief.

Apocalypticism is about proclaiming that the end of the world is near, or in other words, saying that the world is very dark. Then it proclaims that there will be a messiah to save us.

BTC uses this very strategy. It starts by saying that the 2008 financial crisis was caused by the official control of the US dollar exchange rate, leading to inflation. This is equivalent to saying that reality is dark and the end of the world is coming. Then, it claims that BTC has a limited supply and can fight against inflation. This is like packaging BTC as a messiah.

Throughout history, this pattern has been common. It first appeared in Persia, where the cult of Mithras and Zoroastrianism were both messianic beliefs. The Persian king packaged himself as a messiah, expanding under the banner of the messiah, claiming it was not expanding but the salvation of all beings.

Later, messianic belief spread westward and influenced Christianity. The last chapter of the Christian Bible, Revelation, is a prophecy of the end of the world, with Jesus being the messiah.

Messianic belief also spread eastward and combined with Buddhism, giving rise to the beliefs in the rebirth of Maitreya and the White Lotus Society. In Buddhism, Amitabha is the Buddha of the Western Paradise, and Maitreya is the Buddha of the future, with one ruling the Paradise (Utopia) and the other ruling the (future world). They are clearly two messiahs. The White Lotus Society developed from this kind of belief.

There are many similar cases, such as Hong Xiuquan's Taiping Heavenly Kingdom movement, which was also a product of messianic belief. Stalin also packaged himself as a messiah.

The reason messianic belief can generate massive attention is that human intelligence is inherently sensitive to disasters. Therefore, apocalypticism easily attracts attention. And when apocalypticism is followed by a messianic belief, the attention becomes explosive.

Human intelligence is naturally sensitive to disasters. This is because human intelligence evolved to adapt to the environment.

For example, imagine a primitive hunter on the African savannah seeing the grass move. Would he first assume there's a lion in the grass, or that the wind is blowing it? The correct answer is that he would assume there's a lion and run away. Because even if the grass was just moved by the wind, he doesn't lose anything by running, just consider it exercise. But if there really was a lion in the grass and he didn't run, he could lose his life.

This example shows that humans, to adapt to the environment, will prioritize the assumption that there are factors in the environment that threaten their safety.

Apocalypticism and messianic belief play on this "bug" in the human mind, provoking sensitive nerves. They say that reality is too dark and a messiah is needed.

BTC follows this pattern. It promotes the idea that official control of currency will lead to an economic crisis, which is akin to apocalypticism, proclaiming the end of the world. Then, it packages BTC as a messiah that can replace fiat currency and counter official control.

However, a problem arises. The absence of official control doesn't mean no one is controlling. A large amount of BTC is in the hands of exchanges and mining operations. They can manipulate the coin's price by pumping and dumping with the BTC they hold.

Therefore, the so-called decentralization of blockchain actually has its issues. Removing one center just leads to the formation of a new center.

Btc是末世论和救世主信仰的产物。
末世论就是宣扬世界末日快到了，或者换个说法，说世界很黑暗。然后宣扬说有一个救世主会拯救我们。
Btc用的就是这个套路。先说，2008年金融危机是因为官方控制美元的汇率导致通货膨胀引发的。这就相当于说现实很黑暗，世界末日快来了。然后，说btc有数量上限。可以对抗通货膨胀。相当于把btc包装成了一个救世主。
历史上这种套路屡见不鲜。最早应该出现在波斯，波斯的密特拉信仰和拜火教都是救世主信仰。波斯王把自己包装成救世主。打着救世主的旗号侵略扩张不是侵略，而是拯救芸芸众生。
后来救世主信仰向西传播影响了基督教。基督教《圣经》最后一章启示录，就是预言世界末日的，而耶稣就是救世主。
类似的情况还有很多，洪秀全的拜上帝会也是救世主信仰的产物。斯大林也把自己包装成救世主。
救世主信仰之所以能调动天量流量，是因为人类智能天生对灾难敏感，所以，末世论很容易吸引流量。而在末世论之后在附带一个救世主信仰，那流量更是爆炸。
人类智能天生对灾难比较敏感。出现这种情况的原因是，人类的智能源于进化，需要适应环境。
举个例子，假设一个原始人在非洲大草原上打猎，看见草丛动了一下。他会优先预设草丛里有个狮子，还是草丛是被风吹的动了一下？正确答案是，他会预设草丛里有狮子扭头就跑。因为就算草丛只是被风吹动了，他跑了也不亏，就当锻炼身体了。但是，如果草丛里有狮子，他没跑的话，命就没了。
从这个例子可以看出，人类为了适应环境，会优先预设环境中存在威胁自身安全的因素。
末世论和救世主信仰就是触动了人类头脑中的这个bug发挥作用，挑动人类的敏感神经。说现实太黑暗了，需要一个救世主。
Btc也是这个套路。宣传官方操控货币会导致经济危机，相当于末世论，宣扬世界末日。然后，把btc包装成一个救世主，能够取代法币对抗官方的操控。
但是，问题来了。官方不操控不代表没人操控。大量的btc在交易所和矿场手里。交易所和矿场可以利用手里的btc拉盘砸盘，操纵币价。
所以，区块链的所谓去中心化其实是有问题的。去掉了一个中心，又会形成新的中心。

八月六号不少高管陆续从OpenAI离职，但那些加入Anthropic公司的，基本都是之前OpenAI里反对商业化的人，或者说是原先就在研究AI安全的团队。而像卡帕西等科学家，离开了OpenAI后并没有加盟到对手公司。

这也就意味着，经过这轮高管人员的动荡和清洗，OpenAI内部几乎就不存在反对商业化的人了。对于CEO奥尔特曼来说，他可能更容易放开手脚去做事情，而不至于被内部势力所掣肘。也许会带来wld的上涨。

说实话，对于OpenAI的这波人员变动，我第一时间想到的就是当年的仙童公司。吴军老师在《浪潮之巅》里有一章专门讲了仙童公司的影响，我跟大家分享一下。

仙童公司对世界的贡献，不仅仅是发明了集成电路，更重要的是，它把半导体变成了一个全球性的行业。经常有人说，“没有当年的仙童，就没有现在的硅谷”。这种说法并不夸张，要知道在上世纪60年代末，全世界的IT巨头聚在一起开会时，发现九成的人都在仙童公司工作过。而且因为里面的人不断出去创业，所以有了遍地开花的子公司或者孙公司。截止到2017年，从仙童公司直接或者间接分离出去的大中型公司多达百家，里面就有英特尔、AMD这些知名企业。

而提到仙童，就不得不提到一个日子，1957年9月18日。那天，发明集成电路的诺伊斯、提出摩尔定律的摩尔、成立了著名投资基金凯鹏华盈的克莱纳等八位响当当的半导体专家，集体向当时的老板肖克利提交了辞职报告，从肖克利半导体公司离开。

这一天后来被《纽约时报》称为是人类历史上最重要的十个日子之一，因为他们创立了仙童，从此也开创了一个巨大的产业。

当时，在有着“独裁”作风的肖克利看来，这八个人不是一般的辞职，而是学生背叛老师，话说重一点儿就是欺师灭祖，所以他称呼这八个人为“八叛徒”。

不过随着未来半导体和IT的发展，“叛徒”这个词在硅谷文化里成了褒义词，代表着一种叛逆传统的创业精神。

所以，回到现在OpenAI离职潮这件事上，虽然不少骨干离开了OpenAI，但是这批人也正是AI领域传播火种的大神，完全有可能在未来推动AI的巨大发展。

最后，我好奇的一点是，为什么这几个人都选择在8月6号这天发表离开的声明？

然后我就去查找了一下资料，发现这一天在历史上，全球范围内的知名事件只有一个，那就是1945年8月6日，美国在日本广岛投下了名为“小男孩”的原子弹，这是人类历史上首次使用核武器。

当然了，OpenAI再怎么动荡，其实都是他们家自己的事情。对于整个AI生态来说，有可能是一件好事。
$SOL

根据恐惧与贪婪指数（Fear & Greed Index）判断买入时机，主要基于对市场投资者情绪的分析。以下是一些具体的步骤和考虑因素：

一、理解恐惧与贪婪指数

恐惧与贪婪指数是由CNN Money等机构开发的一项指标，用于衡量市场上投资者的情绪状态。它通常通过多个指标（如垃圾债券需求、市场波动率、股票价格宽度、避风港需求等）的综合加权计算得出，数值范围一般为0到100。其中，数值越低表示投资者情绪越恐惧，而数值越高则表示投资者情绪越贪婪。

二、判断买入时机的原则

市场情绪处于恐惧状态：

当恐惧与贪婪指数处于较低水平（如0-25，表示极度恐惧；或26-44，表示恐惧）时，通常意味着市场投资者普遍感到恐慌，市场情绪较为悲观。
在这种情况下，股票价格可能会因为过度抛售而低于其实际价值，为投资者提供了潜在的买入机会。

结合其他市场指标：

虽然恐惧与贪婪指数是一个重要的参考指标，但投资者在判断买入时机时还应结合其他市场指标（如技术指标、基本面指标等）进行综合分析。
例如，可以观察市场的估值水平、成交量变化、政策环境等因素，以进一步确认市场的真实情况和潜在的投资机会。

考虑个人风险偏好和投资策略：

不同的投资者有不同的风险偏好和投资策略。因此，在根据恐惧与贪婪指数判断买入时机时，投资者还应考虑自己的风险承受能力和投资目标。
如果投资者风险偏好较低，可能更倾向于在恐惧与贪婪指数处于较低水平时逐步建仓；而如果投资者风险偏好较高，则可能更愿意在市场情绪稍有好转时积极买入。
三、具体操作建议

关注指数变化：

投资者应定期关注恐惧与贪婪指数的变化情况，以便及时了解市场投资者情绪的变化趋势。
可以通过财经网站、投资软件等渠道获取最新的恐惧与贪婪指数数据。

设定买入阈值：

投资者可以根据自己的风险偏好和投资策略设定一个买入阈值（如恐惧与贪婪指数低于30时考虑买入）。
当指数达到或低于这个阈值时，可以开始考虑买入相关资产。

分批买入：

为了降低投资风险和提高投资收益的稳定性，投资者可以采取分批买入的策略。
即在设定的买入阈值附近分多个批次逐步建仓，以平均化买入成本并降低单一交易的风险。

总之，根据恐惧与贪婪指数判断买入时机需要综合考虑多个因素并结合个人风险偏好和投资策略进行决策。同时也要注意市场情绪的变化是动态的和复杂的，投资者应保持谨慎并密切关注市场动态。