YashasEdu
Writing uncomfortable truths about money, systems and what we pretend we believe.
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There are only 7 crypto pairs in the top 30 pairs by volume on $HYPE
Even "crypto traders" are no longer trading crypto lol
Even "crypto traders" are no longer trading crypto lol
In many defi sectors almost all revenue is captured by the top 2 market participants, basically most crypto verticals are turning into duopolies
CT is pattern-matching to 2022. Here's how to actually read this👇
Two scenarios matter right now:
1. If 6-month oil contracts stay below +20% → market sees this as temporary.
➢ Fed won't hike
➢ Liquidity stays intact
➢ Risk assets historically recover fast after short conflicts
2. If 6-month oil contracts push toward +25%+ → shock is turning structural
➢ That's when the 2022 comparison starts to hold
➢ Fed gets pressured
➢ Liquidity tightens
Right now they're at +12%. The market is NOT pricing 2022 and the difference is simple.
2022 = permanent supply rewiring. Took 12 months to fix and Fed had no choice but to hike.
2026 = blockade. War ends, oil moves. Fed at +1.2% real rates with room to wait. (I personally expect this war to continue until mid April)
One number tells you everything: watch 6-month oil futures.
Two scenarios matter right now:
1. If 6-month oil contracts stay below +20% → market sees this as temporary.
➢ Fed won't hike
➢ Liquidity stays intact
➢ Risk assets historically recover fast after short conflicts
2. If 6-month oil contracts push toward +25%+ → shock is turning structural
➢ That's when the 2022 comparison starts to hold
➢ Fed gets pressured
➢ Liquidity tightens
Right now they're at +12%. The market is NOT pricing 2022 and the difference is simple.
2022 = permanent supply rewiring. Took 12 months to fix and Fed had no choice but to hike.
2026 = blockade. War ends, oil moves. Fed at +1.2% real rates with room to wait. (I personally expect this war to continue until mid April)
One number tells you everything: watch 6-month oil futures.
Most are calling this move on $KAT , a CEX pump and to some extent it's true.
CEX users deposited nearly $334M in single-day inflows as TVL doubled in 24H but total network revenue is at $3.5M, driven by Vaultbridge interest.
➥ The real filter will be post-airdrop where mercenary capital leaves
➥ The 45-day vKAT cooldown structure means only aligned capital stays
➥ Phase 2 then expands emissions across lending, perps and yield markets (that's when actual usage shows up in the data)
TVL looks like a spike and revenue looks like a staircase atm but remember the staircase doesn't care about the airdrop.
CEX users deposited nearly $334M in single-day inflows as TVL doubled in 24H but total network revenue is at $3.5M, driven by Vaultbridge interest.
➥ The real filter will be post-airdrop where mercenary capital leaves
➥ The 45-day vKAT cooldown structure means only aligned capital stays
➥ Phase 2 then expands emissions across lending, perps and yield markets (that's when actual usage shows up in the data)
TVL looks like a spike and revenue looks like a staircase atm but remember the staircase doesn't care about the airdrop.
Total market cap of yield stablecoins reached $20.5B, up 2.5x YoY.
Largest YoY market cap growth:
1. $SKY $sUSDS: +$1.9B
2. $SYRUP $syrupUSDC: +$1.54B
3. $BUIDL: +$1.46B
4. $USYC: +$930M
5. $USTB: +$872M
OCC wants to ban yield on regulated stablecoins.
> Dimon says if you pay interest, get regulated like a bank
> Trump publicly sided with crypto
This sounds like political noise. It isn't. YBS are the only real threat to bank deposits right now.
Every person in that room knows exactly what's at stake.
Largest YoY market cap growth:
1. $SKY $sUSDS: +$1.9B
2. $SYRUP $syrupUSDC: +$1.54B
3. $BUIDL: +$1.46B
4. $USYC: +$930M
5. $USTB: +$872M
OCC wants to ban yield on regulated stablecoins.
> Dimon says if you pay interest, get regulated like a bank
> Trump publicly sided with crypto
This sounds like political noise. It isn't. YBS are the only real threat to bank deposits right now.
Every person in that room knows exactly what's at stake.
Most people think robotics is a technology race.
It isn't. It's a trust and distribution problem.
Operations managers don't buy robots. They buy uptime, throughput, and provable ROI. The robot is just the delivery mechanism for those things.
What actually separates the teams winning right now:
➤ Purpose-built beats general-purpose (At least for now)
➤ Fewer parts means faster repairs, better uptime, cleaner unit economics
➤ Most buyers can't integrate or maintain robots. They want outcomes, not specs.
➤ If your deployment cost doesn't trend toward zero, you don't have a go-to-market. You have a pilot.
The companies figuring this out are building the service layer around the hardware. They handle integration, ops, maintenance. They're selling to operators, not engineers.
That's not the exciting part of robotics to talk about but it's where the real scale is.
2025 was demos. 2026 is when credibility becomes the filter. Some teams to keep an eye upon👇
It isn't. It's a trust and distribution problem.
Operations managers don't buy robots. They buy uptime, throughput, and provable ROI. The robot is just the delivery mechanism for those things.
What actually separates the teams winning right now:
➤ Purpose-built beats general-purpose (At least for now)
➤ Fewer parts means faster repairs, better uptime, cleaner unit economics
➤ Most buyers can't integrate or maintain robots. They want outcomes, not specs.
➤ If your deployment cost doesn't trend toward zero, you don't have a go-to-market. You have a pilot.
The companies figuring this out are building the service layer around the hardware. They handle integration, ops, maintenance. They're selling to operators, not engineers.
That's not the exciting part of robotics to talk about but it's where the real scale is.
2025 was demos. 2026 is when credibility becomes the filter. Some teams to keep an eye upon👇
So MetaDAO just launched a permissionless launchpad (Futardio) after two curated ICOs didn't land the way they hoped.
The bet is solo founders need capital.
Crypto is the best formation tool for it and unlike pump, buyers here get legal protections + liquidation rights.
Down nearly 60% from ATH, sitting at ~$97M mcap atm, it'll be worth watching how it performs.
The bet is solo founders need capital.
Crypto is the best formation tool for it and unlike pump, buyers here get legal protections + liquidation rights.
Down nearly 60% from ATH, sitting at ~$97M mcap atm, it'll be worth watching how it performs.
Sorry to break it to you but you literally have to face your fears and slaughter them.
Otherwise you will live a small life that you do not want. You literally have to view your biggest fears and attack them head on. You have to fall into the abyss to find your way out.
The easy path does not exist. You have to allow yourself to die a spiritual death over and over again in order to reinvent yourself into the person you are actually supposed to be and you have to be painfully honest with yourself and the people around you.
It's horrible but it's truly the only way.
Otherwise you will live a small life that you do not want. You literally have to view your biggest fears and attack them head on. You have to fall into the abyss to find your way out.
The easy path does not exist. You have to allow yourself to die a spiritual death over and over again in order to reinvent yourself into the person you are actually supposed to be and you have to be painfully honest with yourself and the people around you.
It's horrible but it's truly the only way.
$10T in stablecoin volume last month, which is more than most countries move in a year.
And every single compliant transfer still requires its own identity check from scratch. That's the bottleneck nobody's pricing in.
➣ $320B mcap
➣ $33T in transactions last year
Stablecoins are now becoming the global settlement infrastructure but the compliance layer is stuck in 2015. (new platform, new KYC, new chain, start over)
That's the gap idOS is sitting in👇
1. Reusable compliance credentials for stablecoin-native finance
2. Verify once, permission across chains
3. The more rails that plug in, the harder it becomes to replace
CCA sale Phase 2 is live now. With no minimums, full unlock at TGE on March 5.
At ~$36M implied mcap, it's pricing in almost zero adoption. Coinbase projects stablecoin market cap hitting $1.2T by 2028. If even a fraction of those flows need reusable identity, the current valuation looks like a rounding error.
And every single compliant transfer still requires its own identity check from scratch. That's the bottleneck nobody's pricing in.
➣ $320B mcap
➣ $33T in transactions last year
Stablecoins are now becoming the global settlement infrastructure but the compliance layer is stuck in 2015. (new platform, new KYC, new chain, start over)
That's the gap idOS is sitting in👇
1. Reusable compliance credentials for stablecoin-native finance
2. Verify once, permission across chains
3. The more rails that plug in, the harder it becomes to replace
CCA sale Phase 2 is live now. With no minimums, full unlock at TGE on March 5.
At ~$36M implied mcap, it's pricing in almost zero adoption. Coinbase projects stablecoin market cap hitting $1.2T by 2028. If even a fraction of those flows need reusable identity, the current valuation looks like a rounding error.
The whole AI kills software debate is asking the wrong question.
The internet didn't kill retail. It created a $5T layer on top of it that didn't exist before. AI is doing the same thing, except faster.
‣ Labs are automating their own research pipelines, compounding progress without adding headcount
‣ Software companies are expanding into markets that were too complex to touch before
And onchain you can already see it too. AI agents are the only sector starting to recover👇
1. AI agents have seen huge growth (100%+ returns) in the last 7D
2. DEX activity on Base is pushing past BSC
3. Net-new economic activity that literally did not exist 6 months ago
Remember AI doesn't compress markets. It builds new ones on top of them. Most people won't connect the dots until the repricing is done.
$pippin $VIRTUAL $VVV are the leaders in here.
The internet didn't kill retail. It created a $5T layer on top of it that didn't exist before. AI is doing the same thing, except faster.
‣ Labs are automating their own research pipelines, compounding progress without adding headcount
‣ Software companies are expanding into markets that were too complex to touch before
And onchain you can already see it too. AI agents are the only sector starting to recover👇
1. AI agents have seen huge growth (100%+ returns) in the last 7D
2. DEX activity on Base is pushing past BSC
3. Net-new economic activity that literally did not exist 6 months ago
Remember AI doesn't compress markets. It builds new ones on top of them. Most people won't connect the dots until the repricing is done.
$pippin $VIRTUAL $VVV are the leaders in here.
There's one onchain metric I keep coming back to.
Supply in Profit vs Supply in Loss.
Right now about 11M $BTC sits in profit while ~9M is underwater. Not dramatic on its own. But when those two numbers start converging i.e when nearly as many coins are losing money as making it. That's the market telling you something.
It means weak hands are done. Capitulation is almost complete.
That exact convergence caught the 2015 bottom. The 2019 bottom. COVID crash. FTX collapse.
Every. Single. One.
The gap is tightening right now. Worth watching closely.
Supply in Profit vs Supply in Loss.
Right now about 11M $BTC sits in profit while ~9M is underwater. Not dramatic on its own. But when those two numbers start converging i.e when nearly as many coins are losing money as making it. That's the market telling you something.
It means weak hands are done. Capitulation is almost complete.
That exact convergence caught the 2015 bottom. The 2019 bottom. COVID crash. FTX collapse.
Every. Single. One.
The gap is tightening right now. Worth watching closely.
Prediction markets just posted their first down month since August.
Still did $23.4B in Feb.
• Kalshi: $9.8B (↑ from $8.9B), now clearly leading
• Polymarket: $7.6B (flat/down MoM)
• Opinion: $3.1B (sharp cooldown from $8.1B)
Still did $23.4B in Feb.
• Kalshi: $9.8B (↑ from $8.9B), now clearly leading
• Polymarket: $7.6B (flat/down MoM)
• Opinion: $3.1B (sharp cooldown from $8.1B)
$AAVE cross $1T in all-time loans, it also has more active loans than every other lending protocol combined.
Revenue looks even better.
Revenue looks even better.
PerpDEXs did $6.7T in volume last year. Up 346%.
Here's why this matters:
➤ CEX open interest dropped 20%. DEX open interest up 229%. Capital is migrating onchain
➤ $HYPE hit $2.9T volume, more than double Coinbase International
➤ HIP-3 made perp listings permissionless. Now you can trade gold, crude oil, pre-IPO stocks onchain
➤ These markets never close. When news breaks Sunday night, onchain prices it before Monday open
PerpDEXs aren't competing with Binance anymore. They're competing with the CME.
Here's why this matters:
➤ CEX open interest dropped 20%. DEX open interest up 229%. Capital is migrating onchain
➤ $HYPE hit $2.9T volume, more than double Coinbase International
➤ HIP-3 made perp listings permissionless. Now you can trade gold, crude oil, pre-IPO stocks onchain
➤ These markets never close. When news breaks Sunday night, onchain prices it before Monday open
PerpDEXs aren't competing with Binance anymore. They're competing with the CME.
While $HNT is down 90%+ from highs and most people have moved on:
‣ It did ~$9.5M in revenue over 2025 (In last 2 months it's already running ~$2.3M)
‣ Monthly revenue went from near zero in 2023 to peaking at ~$1.9M in a Dec 2025
‣ Token turned net deflationary in mid-2025 and Q4 2025 saw the largest quarterly net burn ever
‣ Mobile revenue did $2.28M worth of HNT in buybacks until December
‣ Has 3M+ daily users, 43K+ hotspots regularly and nearly 6.71% of the circ supply is staked so far
Token is down but fundamentals of the Helium have never been stronger.
‣ It did ~$9.5M in revenue over 2025 (In last 2 months it's already running ~$2.3M)
‣ Monthly revenue went from near zero in 2023 to peaking at ~$1.9M in a Dec 2025
‣ Token turned net deflationary in mid-2025 and Q4 2025 saw the largest quarterly net burn ever
‣ Mobile revenue did $2.28M worth of HNT in buybacks until December
‣ Has 3M+ daily users, 43K+ hotspots regularly and nearly 6.71% of the circ supply is staked so far
Token is down but fundamentals of the Helium have never been stronger.
Venezuela. Syria. Iran.
Three countries in 14 months. Looks like chaos but there's a pattern as every target sits on oil, minerals or a shipping chokepoint.
1. Venezuela: captured Maduro, got 80M barrels flowing to US refineries
2. Syria: lifted sanctions, flipped it from isolated to invested
3. Iran: took out Khamenei, now the Strait of Hormuz is a live risk
This isn't conventional war. It's hostile M&A at the nation-state level. US has converted military opsainto commercial contracts at a speed we haven't seen before.
Three countries in 14 months. Looks like chaos but there's a pattern as every target sits on oil, minerals or a shipping chokepoint.
1. Venezuela: captured Maduro, got 80M barrels flowing to US refineries
2. Syria: lifted sanctions, flipped it from isolated to invested
3. Iran: took out Khamenei, now the Strait of Hormuz is a live risk
This isn't conventional war. It's hostile M&A at the nation-state level. US has converted military opsainto commercial contracts at a speed we haven't seen before.
$883M went into crypto startups in February which sounds healthy until you zoom out.
➠ VC deal count is lowest in 5.5 years
➠ Funding is ~80% below the 2022 peak
And the money that is flowing is concentrating in fewer niches like stablecoin infra, custody, compliance tooling.
85% of tokens launched in 2025 trade below their opening price and VCs have noticed this.
The narrative and a deck era is dead, now revenue is the new pitch.
➠ VC deal count is lowest in 5.5 years
➠ Funding is ~80% below the 2022 peak
And the money that is flowing is concentrating in fewer niches like stablecoin infra, custody, compliance tooling.
85% of tokens launched in 2025 trade below their opening price and VCs have noticed this.
The narrative and a deck era is dead, now revenue is the new pitch.
2.9M people used the Helium network yesterday and contributed to burning $HNT
Monthly Network performance
- Daily Active Users: +47%
- Mobile Hotspots growth: +24%
- Data Transfer: +39%
- $HNT burned: +125%
The momentum is real.
Monthly Network performance
- Daily Active Users: +47%
- Mobile Hotspots growth: +24%
- Data Transfer: +39%
- $HNT burned: +125%
The momentum is real.
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