Maherbro

I'm really glad you're here today.
After the sharp and very painful correction we saw earlier this week, gold has come roaring back.
Today the yellow metal has broken decisively above the $5,000 psychological level once again.
Spot gold and futures prices are trading in the $5,034 to $5,083 range, with gains of 2% to more than 3% in most sessions.
At the same time, the US Dollar Index is showing resilience — holding steady around 97.40 to 97.55.
In today's full update we are going to cover everything step by step:
$XAU

what exactly triggered this strong rebound
the technical levels that matter right now
why the dollar is not giving up much ground
the bigger macro and geopolitical picture
and most importantly — what smart money is likely doing and what you should be watching this week

So let's dive right in.

First — let's talk about gold and why it has bounced so aggressively today.

Just a couple of days ago we saw gold dip toward $4,650–$4,700 — a level that many traders were watching closely.
That zone acted as a very strong magnet for buyers.
Once prices reached there, we got:

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heavy bargain hunting from both retail and institutional accounts
massive short covering — a lot of traders had built large short positions during the sell-off and now had to buy back
a classic oversold bounce after one of the fastest corrections from the recent highs
renewed safe-haven interest because geopolitical headlines haven't gone away
and a modest pause in dollar strength which gave gold some breathing room

This combination created a powerful short squeeze and dip-buying wave.
It's a textbook example of how violent corrections in bull markets are often followed by equally violent recoveries.

Now let's look at the technical setup on gold — this is critical right now.

Support levels that worked:

$4,650–$4,700 — this zone held very well and became the launchpad for today's rally
$4,800–$4,850 — acted as intermediate support during the recovery

Current resistance levels to watch closely:

$5,000 — huge psychological round number (reclaimed today with strength)
$5,050–$5,100 — next immediate resistance cluster (previous highs and consolidation area)
$5,150–$5,200 — stronger resistance zone — if we get there this week it would be very bullish
$5,300+ — would signal resumption of the larger uptrend if cleared

What really matters now:
Can gold close the day and the week above $5,000 with conviction?
If yes — the correction probably ends here and we look higher.
If it fails to hold $5,000 on any pullback and drops back below $4,950–$4,980, then the risk of retesting $4,800 or even lower increases again.
Volatility is still very high — so tight risk management is essential.

Let's switch to the US Dollar Index.
The DXY is trading in a very tight range today — around 97.40 to 97.55.
It's basically flat to slightly up — no major weakness and no breakout higher either.

Why is the dollar holding firm despite gold's big rebound?
Several reasons:

The recent bounce from lower levels (mid-96s) has left the dollar less oversold
Ongoing uncertainty from the partial government shutdown — many key economic releases are delayed, so markets are in wait-and-see mode
Hawkish undertones around Fed policy and the next chair nomination are still supporting the dollar narrative
Short-term safe-haven flows in certain risk-off moments still favor the dollar
Rate-cut expectations for 2026 remain modest — not aggressive enough to cause a dollar collapse

Key DXY levels this week:

Support:

97.20–97.30 — minor support
96.80–97.00 — stronger technical floor

ResIstance:

97.60–97.80 — recent swing high area
98.00 — very important psychological and technical level
98.50 — next major zone if we get a real breakout

If DXY closes above 98.00 with volume, it would put fresh pressure on gold and most commodities.
On the other hand — a break below 97.20 would give gold and silver even more room to run.

Bigger macro picture — why this back-and-forth matters.

Gold remains in a long-term bull market.
The drivers are still very much in place:

Central banks around the world continue to add gold reserves
Geopolitical tensions (Middle East, trade conflicts, global uncertainty) are not resolving
Debt levels globally are still climbing
Inflation expectations have not collapsed — they remain sticky

The recent correction was sharp and painful — but it looks more like a healthy reset after a very extended rally rather than the end of the trend.

Institutions and smart money likely behaved in two ways during the dip:

Some reduced exposure or hedged to protect profits
Others used the weakness to add to long positions at better prices

Right now many are probably leaning long again after today's strong move.

What to watch closely over the next few days:

Gold's ability to defend $5,000 and push toward $5,100+

DXY reaction at 97.80–98.00 — breakout or rejection?

Any news on the government shutdown — data delays are creating uncertainty

Broader market risk sentiment — how equities, bond yields and oil behave

Geopolitical headlines — any escalation can flip the script very quickly

In the comments tell me: do you think gold holds above $5,000 this week and goes higher, or do we see more volatility and chop?
I read and reply to as many comments as possible.