Laury05

What to Buy? A Tiered Framework for a "Deglobalizing, High-Distrust" World

The core idea here is hedging against the failures of the traditional system while still participating where you must.

Tier 1: Real Assets & Hard Stores of Value

These are the direct hedges against currency debasement and systemic risk.

· Physical Gold & Silver: The classic. Not for yield, but for wealth preservation. Consider a core holding (5-10%) and ignore short-term moves. Gold miners (GDX, individual producers) offer leveraged exposure but carry operational risk.
· Energy & Critical Commodities: You own things the world must have. Uranium (URA, URNM) is a unique play on re-industrialization and energy security. Copper (COPX) is essential for electrification. Oil & Gas majors with strong dividends can hedge inflation.
· Agricultural Land & Water Rights: Hardest for retail investors to access directly, but consider ETFs like MOO (agribusiness) or FIW (water utilities) as proxies.

Tier 2: Geopolitical & Monetary Hedges

· Singapore, Swiss, or Australian Assets: Jurisdictions seen as stable, rule-of-law havens. Think ETFs like EWS (Singapore) or EWL (Switzerland). Their currencies (SGD, CHF, AUD) can also be a dollar hedge.
· Bitcoin & (Select) Crypto Assets: This is the controversial, high-conviction hedge. It's the digital analog to gold—sovereign, hard-capped, and exists outside the traditional banking system. Treat it as a high-risk, high-potential portion of your "hard asset" allocation (e.g., 1-3% of total portfolio). Ethereum can be seen as a tech/utility bet within this space.
· Non-U.S. / Non-China Value Plays: Look for companies in Japan (EWJ, DXJ) benefiting from corporate reform and a weak Yen, or in India (INDA, SMIN) as a long-term demographic/outsourcing alternative to China. Mexico (EWW) is a direct beneficiary of near-shoring.

Tier 3: Resilient Equity Exposure

You can't go to 100% gold and bunkers. You need productive assets.

· Defensive Sectors with Pricing Power: Healthcare (XLV), Consumer Staples (XLP), and Utilities (XLU) are less about growth and more about necessity.
· Military & Defense Contractors (ITA, PPA): In a fragmented world, defense spending is secular, not cyclical.
· "Own the Index" with a Hedge: If you must own the S&P 500 (IVV, VOO), pair it with a long-volatility hedge (like VIX calls or a small allocation to managed futures (CTA) strategies like DBMF) or simply hold more cash to buy dips.

Tier 4: What You Don't Do (The "Avoid" List)

· Long-duration U.S. Treasuries (unless you're betting on a deep recession).
· Excessive reliance on any single fiat currency (hold a basket).
· Pure-play Chinese equities as a core, trusted holding.
· Over-levered real estate in overvalued markets.