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Analysts Can't Agree: Bitcoin to $50K or $200K? Here's What Both Sides Are Saying.
Bitcoin is at $68,000.
And nobody can agree on where it's going next.
The bears say: We're heading to $40K-$50K before any recovery.
The bulls say: This is capitulation $87K to $200K+ is next.
The range: $40,000 to $200,000+.
That's a 150% spread in predictions.
Same market. Same data. Completely different conclusions.
Let me break down what each side is seeing and why both might be partially right.
The Full Spectrum: $40K to $200K
Extreme Bears: $40K-$50K
Who: ZordXBT, John Blank (Zacks), Polymarket traders
The call: Bitcoin drops to $40K-$50K, possibly wicking to $32K
Their argument:
Historical bear markets see 75-85% drops from ATHCurrent 46% drop ($126K → $70K) isn't enoughFinal capitulation hasn't happened yetPolymarket odds: 64% chance Bitcoin goes sub-$50K
Bears: $50K-$55K
Who: Standard Chartered, Canary Capital (Steven McClurg)
The call: Drop to $50K by summer, then recovery to $100K by EOY
Their argument:
ETF outflows continuing ($817M single day, $1.33B weekly)Average ETF buyer sitting on -25% loss (bought at $90K)Macro headwinds (high rates, sticky inflation)Four-year cycle entering bear phase
Standard Chartered's exact words: "We are going to see more pain and a final capitulation period for digital asset prices in the next few months."
Cautious Middle: $60K-$70K Range
Who: Grayscale, cycle-based analysts
The call: Hold current support, range-bound 2026
Their argument:
BTC correlating with high-growth tech stocksNot acting as "digital gold" yetMight be a "breather year" in the four-year cycleSupport should hold at $60K-$70K
Bulls (Near-Term): $87K-$95K
Who: Ainslie Research (Chris Tipper), on-chain analysts
The call: Relief rally to $87K-$95K, then consolidation
Their argument:
Bitcoin oversold vs 50/100-week moving averagesHistorical rallies of 170-220% after undervalued zonesOn-chain showing capitulation signalsShort-term bounce likely before next leg
Institutional Bulls: $143K-$150K
Who: Citi, Standard Chartered (end-2026 target), Grayscale
The call: $143K-$150K by end of 2026
Their argument:
ETF demand will returnInstitutional adoption still earlyFed rate cuts coming (eventually)Four-year cycle might break (no traditional bear in 2026)
Citi's framework: Base case $143K, bull case $189K, bear case $78K
Ultra Bulls: $175K-$200K+
Who: Grayscale (new ATH in H1 2026), CZ, crypto-native analysts
The call: New all-time high above $150K, possibly $200K+
Their argument:
Spot ETFs changed the game (no more 80% crashes)Institutional demand is structural, not cyclicalSupercycle thesis (2026 won't be a bear year)Bitcoin's scarcity + growing demand = inevitable
Grayscale's specific call: "Bitcoin's price will likely reach a new all-time high in the first half of the year"
The Bear Case: Why $50K Could Happen
1. ETF Outflows Are Real
The numbers:
ETF holdings down 100,000 BTC from October peakTotal AUM dropped 41%: $165B → $96BAverage ETF buyer entry price: $90KCurrent price: $70KLoss: -22%
What bears say: Institutions aren't buying the dip. They're selling. When your average buyer is underwater, they don't add they cut losses.
2. Historical Drawdowns Go Deeper
Past bear markets:
2018: -85% ($20K → $3K)2022: -78% ($69K → $15.5K)
Current:
2026: -46% ($126K → $70K)
What bears say: We're only halfway through a typical bear market. History says we go lower.
3. Macro Is Getting Worse
Fed not cutting rates yetInflation still sticky at 2.9-3.1%Dollar strengthening (bad for $BTC )Tech stocks correlating down
What bears say: Bitcoin trades like a risk asset. Risk-off environment = more downside.
4. Standard Chartered's Warning
October 2025: $200K for 2025, $300K for 2026
December 2025: Cut to $100K for 2025, $150K for 2026
February 2026: Cut again to $50K near-term, $100K for EOY 2026
What bears say: If a major bank keeps slashing forecasts, they're seeing real deterioration.
The Bull Case: Why $87K-$200K Could Happen
Now let me show you the data bulls are using.
1. On-Chain Says: Capitulation Zone
The signals:
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) below 1 = sellers realizing lossesLong-term holders selling at historic ratesExchange outflows accelerating (whales accumulating)Fear & Greed Index hit 5 (lowest ever, worse than FTX collapse)
What bulls say: Extreme fear + whale accumulation = classic bottom formation.
Example: On February 6, whales bought 66,940 BTC in a single day largest since 2022.
2. Undervalued vs Realized Price
Realized Price: $55K (average cost basis of all Bitcoin)
Current Price: $70K
What bulls say: We're trading near realized price. Historically, this is where bottoms form, not where crashes accelerate.
3. Negative Funding Rates = Short Squeeze Setup
Funding rates have been negative for multiple days.
Translation: Shorts are paying longs. Market is overleveraged to the downside.
What bulls say: When everyone's short, a bounce can trigger a massive short squeeze forcing shorts to buy back, spiking price.
4. Historical Rally Patterns
After extreme fear + capitulation:
2018: +316% rally (from $3.2K to $13K in 6 months)2020: +1,625% rally (from $4K to $69K)2022: +715% rally (from $15.5K to $126K)
What bulls say: If this is capitulation, the next rally could be 200-300%+. That's $140K-$210K from current levels.
Who's Right?
Honestly? Maybe both.
Here's my take on how this could play out:
Scenario 1: Bears Win Short-Term, Bulls Win Long-Term
BTC drops to $50K-$55K (capitulation)Stays there for weeks/monthsThen rallies to $87K-$100K by EOYNew ATH ($150K+) in 2027
Probability: 40%
This fits Standard Chartered's revised forecast and historical patterns.
Scenario 2: We Already Bottomed at $67K
$70K holdsRelief rally to $87K-$95KConsolidation, then continuation to $120K-$150K
Probability: 30%
This fits the bull case if Fear & Greed 5 marked the bottom.
Scenario 3: Deeper Crash to $40K Range
Breaks $60K supportCapitulation wick to $40K-$50KThen recovery begins
Probability: 20%
This fits the extreme bear case and Polymarket odds.
Scenario 4: Supercycle (No Traditional Bear)
Consolidates at $70K-$80KRallies to new ATH by mid-2026No deep bear market
Probability: 10%
This fits Grayscale's "end of four-year cycle" thesis.
The Key Data Points to Watch
Forget predictions. Here's what to actually monitor:
1. ETF Flows
If flows turn positive: Bulls are right.
If outflows continue: Bears are right.
Current: Negative. Watch for reversal.
2. Fear & Greed Index
Currently: 15 (Extreme Fear)
If it drops below 10: Possible final capitulation.
If it starts rising: Bottom might be in.
3. $60K Support
Holds: Bulls have a case.
Breaks: Bears take control, next stop $50K.
4. Funding Rates
Stay negative: Short squeeze setup.
Flip positive: Longs getting squeezed instead.
What Should You Do?
Here's my honest advice:
If You're Waiting to Buy
Don't go all-in at one level.
Layer your entries:
20% at current ($70K)30% at $60K50% at $50K
This way you get exposure if bulls are right, but have dry powder if bears are right.
If You're Already Holding
Don't panic sell.
If you believe long-term (2-5 years), this chop doesn't matter.
Bitcoin at $40K, $50K, or $70K all cheap if it's going to $150K-$200K eventually.
If You're Trading
Respect the range.
We're in $60K-$80K chop. Trade the bounces, take profits, don't over-leverage.
The Bottom Line
#bitcoin is at $70,000.
Bears see: $40K-$55K before recovery.
Bulls see: $87K-$200K+ next.
The truth? Nobody knows.
But here's what we DO know:
✅ #etf outflows are real (bearish)
✅ On-chain capitulation signals are real (bullish)
✅ Macro is challenging (bearish)
✅ Fear & Greed at historic lows (bullish)
✅ Historical bear markets go deeper (bearish)
✅ Historical bottoms have this exact setup (bullish)
Both sides have valid data.
The market will decide who's right.
What's your take are we going to $50K before $100K, or is $70K the bottom? And which analyst camp are you in? Let me know below.
And nobody can agree on where it's going next.
The bears say: We're heading to $40K-$50K before any recovery.
The bulls say: This is capitulation $87K to $200K+ is next.
The range: $40,000 to $200,000+.
That's a 150% spread in predictions.
Same market. Same data. Completely different conclusions.
Let me break down what each side is seeing and why both might be partially right.
The Full Spectrum: $40K to $200K
Extreme Bears: $40K-$50K
Who: ZordXBT, John Blank (Zacks), Polymarket traders
The call: Bitcoin drops to $40K-$50K, possibly wicking to $32K
Their argument:
Historical bear markets see 75-85% drops from ATHCurrent 46% drop ($126K → $70K) isn't enoughFinal capitulation hasn't happened yetPolymarket odds: 64% chance Bitcoin goes sub-$50K
Bears: $50K-$55K
Who: Standard Chartered, Canary Capital (Steven McClurg)
The call: Drop to $50K by summer, then recovery to $100K by EOY
Their argument:
ETF outflows continuing ($817M single day, $1.33B weekly)Average ETF buyer sitting on -25% loss (bought at $90K)Macro headwinds (high rates, sticky inflation)Four-year cycle entering bear phase
Standard Chartered's exact words: "We are going to see more pain and a final capitulation period for digital asset prices in the next few months."
Cautious Middle: $60K-$70K Range
Who: Grayscale, cycle-based analysts
The call: Hold current support, range-bound 2026
Their argument:
BTC correlating with high-growth tech stocksNot acting as "digital gold" yetMight be a "breather year" in the four-year cycleSupport should hold at $60K-$70K
Bulls (Near-Term): $87K-$95K
Who: Ainslie Research (Chris Tipper), on-chain analysts
The call: Relief rally to $87K-$95K, then consolidation
Their argument:
Bitcoin oversold vs 50/100-week moving averagesHistorical rallies of 170-220% after undervalued zonesOn-chain showing capitulation signalsShort-term bounce likely before next leg
Institutional Bulls: $143K-$150K
Who: Citi, Standard Chartered (end-2026 target), Grayscale
The call: $143K-$150K by end of 2026
Their argument:
ETF demand will returnInstitutional adoption still earlyFed rate cuts coming (eventually)Four-year cycle might break (no traditional bear in 2026)
Citi's framework: Base case $143K, bull case $189K, bear case $78K
Ultra Bulls: $175K-$200K+
Who: Grayscale (new ATH in H1 2026), CZ, crypto-native analysts
The call: New all-time high above $150K, possibly $200K+
Their argument:
Spot ETFs changed the game (no more 80% crashes)Institutional demand is structural, not cyclicalSupercycle thesis (2026 won't be a bear year)Bitcoin's scarcity + growing demand = inevitable
Grayscale's specific call: "Bitcoin's price will likely reach a new all-time high in the first half of the year"
The Bear Case: Why $50K Could Happen
1. ETF Outflows Are Real
The numbers:
ETF holdings down 100,000 BTC from October peakTotal AUM dropped 41%: $165B → $96BAverage ETF buyer entry price: $90KCurrent price: $70KLoss: -22%
What bears say: Institutions aren't buying the dip. They're selling. When your average buyer is underwater, they don't add they cut losses.
2. Historical Drawdowns Go Deeper
Past bear markets:
2018: -85% ($20K → $3K)2022: -78% ($69K → $15.5K)
Current:
2026: -46% ($126K → $70K)
What bears say: We're only halfway through a typical bear market. History says we go lower.
3. Macro Is Getting Worse
Fed not cutting rates yetInflation still sticky at 2.9-3.1%Dollar strengthening (bad for $BTC )Tech stocks correlating down
What bears say: Bitcoin trades like a risk asset. Risk-off environment = more downside.
4. Standard Chartered's Warning
October 2025: $200K for 2025, $300K for 2026
December 2025: Cut to $100K for 2025, $150K for 2026
February 2026: Cut again to $50K near-term, $100K for EOY 2026
What bears say: If a major bank keeps slashing forecasts, they're seeing real deterioration.
The Bull Case: Why $87K-$200K Could Happen
Now let me show you the data bulls are using.
1. On-Chain Says: Capitulation Zone
The signals:
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) below 1 = sellers realizing lossesLong-term holders selling at historic ratesExchange outflows accelerating (whales accumulating)Fear & Greed Index hit 5 (lowest ever, worse than FTX collapse)
What bulls say: Extreme fear + whale accumulation = classic bottom formation.
Example: On February 6, whales bought 66,940 BTC in a single day largest since 2022.
2. Undervalued vs Realized Price
Realized Price: $55K (average cost basis of all Bitcoin)
Current Price: $70K
What bulls say: We're trading near realized price. Historically, this is where bottoms form, not where crashes accelerate.
3. Negative Funding Rates = Short Squeeze Setup
Funding rates have been negative for multiple days.
Translation: Shorts are paying longs. Market is overleveraged to the downside.
What bulls say: When everyone's short, a bounce can trigger a massive short squeeze forcing shorts to buy back, spiking price.
4. Historical Rally Patterns
After extreme fear + capitulation:
2018: +316% rally (from $3.2K to $13K in 6 months)2020: +1,625% rally (from $4K to $69K)2022: +715% rally (from $15.5K to $126K)
What bulls say: If this is capitulation, the next rally could be 200-300%+. That's $140K-$210K from current levels.
Who's Right?
Honestly? Maybe both.
Here's my take on how this could play out:
Scenario 1: Bears Win Short-Term, Bulls Win Long-Term
BTC drops to $50K-$55K (capitulation)Stays there for weeks/monthsThen rallies to $87K-$100K by EOYNew ATH ($150K+) in 2027
Probability: 40%
This fits Standard Chartered's revised forecast and historical patterns.
Scenario 2: We Already Bottomed at $67K
$70K holdsRelief rally to $87K-$95KConsolidation, then continuation to $120K-$150K
Probability: 30%
This fits the bull case if Fear & Greed 5 marked the bottom.
Scenario 3: Deeper Crash to $40K Range
Breaks $60K supportCapitulation wick to $40K-$50KThen recovery begins
Probability: 20%
This fits the extreme bear case and Polymarket odds.
Scenario 4: Supercycle (No Traditional Bear)
Consolidates at $70K-$80KRallies to new ATH by mid-2026No deep bear market
Probability: 10%
This fits Grayscale's "end of four-year cycle" thesis.
The Key Data Points to Watch
Forget predictions. Here's what to actually monitor:
1. ETF Flows
If flows turn positive: Bulls are right.
If outflows continue: Bears are right.
Current: Negative. Watch for reversal.
2. Fear & Greed Index
Currently: 15 (Extreme Fear)
If it drops below 10: Possible final capitulation.
If it starts rising: Bottom might be in.
3. $60K Support
Holds: Bulls have a case.
Breaks: Bears take control, next stop $50K.
4. Funding Rates
Stay negative: Short squeeze setup.
Flip positive: Longs getting squeezed instead.
What Should You Do?
Here's my honest advice:
If You're Waiting to Buy
Don't go all-in at one level.
Layer your entries:
20% at current ($70K)30% at $60K50% at $50K
This way you get exposure if bulls are right, but have dry powder if bears are right.
If You're Already Holding
Don't panic sell.
If you believe long-term (2-5 years), this chop doesn't matter.
Bitcoin at $40K, $50K, or $70K all cheap if it's going to $150K-$200K eventually.
If You're Trading
Respect the range.
We're in $60K-$80K chop. Trade the bounces, take profits, don't over-leverage.
The Bottom Line
#bitcoin is at $70,000.
Bears see: $40K-$55K before recovery.
Bulls see: $87K-$200K+ next.
The truth? Nobody knows.
But here's what we DO know:
✅ #etf outflows are real (bearish)
✅ On-chain capitulation signals are real (bullish)
✅ Macro is challenging (bearish)
✅ Fear & Greed at historic lows (bullish)
✅ Historical bear markets go deeper (bearish)
✅ Historical bottoms have this exact setup (bullish)
Both sides have valid data.
The market will decide who's right.
What's your take are we going to $50K before $100K, or is $70K the bottom? And which analyst camp are you in? Let me know below.
This is interesting.
Whale “0x4A2” just deposited $2M in $USDC into HyperLiquid and opened 20x leveraged long positions on $ETH and $SOL .
What makes it more notable? This same whale reportedly lost over $6.88M previously.
Going back in with high leverage after a large loss is bold. 20x isn’t small it leaves very little room for error, especially in a volatile market.
Now the question is:
Is this a confident comeback attempt… or another high-risk move?
Either way, when whales take aggressive positions like this, it’s worth watching closely.
Whale “0x4A2” just deposited $2M in $USDC into HyperLiquid and opened 20x leveraged long positions on $ETH and $SOL .
What makes it more notable? This same whale reportedly lost over $6.88M previously.
Going back in with high leverage after a large loss is bold. 20x isn’t small it leaves very little room for error, especially in a volatile market.
Now the question is:
Is this a confident comeback attempt… or another high-risk move?
Either way, when whales take aggressive positions like this, it’s worth watching closely.
I also feel like it could go below $70k, but not if $BTC holds it current Price
В Целом, по моему, ниже 70-ти маловероятно, но в моменте до 67-68$ может спуститься и быстро Восстановиться 70+$
can't argue that man, fact
It will go under 40 if BTC reached 40,000
$ETH is in an interesting position right now.
There’s a large liquidity cluster around $2,200, meaning a lot of stops and leveraged positions are sitting there. That level could act like a magnet if price starts moving up.
There’s also liquidity near $1,900, but it’s much smaller compared to the upside.
With US CPI data coming out today, volatility is expected. If the print is bullish, ETH could push higher and market makers may target the heavy liquidity above, squeezing late shorts.
If CPI comes in negative, we could see a move toward the lower liquidity instead.
Right now, it’s all about which side gets hunted first.
#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
There’s a large liquidity cluster around $2,200, meaning a lot of stops and leveraged positions are sitting there. That level could act like a magnet if price starts moving up.
There’s also liquidity near $1,900, but it’s much smaller compared to the upside.
With US CPI data coming out today, volatility is expected. If the print is bullish, ETH could push higher and market makers may target the heavy liquidity above, squeezing late shorts.
If CPI comes in negative, we could see a move toward the lower liquidity instead.
Right now, it’s all about which side gets hunted first.
#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
There are about 80 active dApps on Solana right now.
How many have you actually tried?
Some people say you can basically do everything on Solana trade, stake, lend, mint NFTs, use DeFi tools, even play games. And looking at the ecosystem, it’s not just hype. The variety is there.
From DEXs and liquid staking to NFT marketplaces and payment apps, Solana has built a pretty wide range of tools. The real question isn’t whether it can do everything it’s whether users are actually using all those tools consistently.
What’s your take is Solana really becoming the all-in-one chain, or is it still growing into that role?
$SIREN $BULLA $SOL
How many have you actually tried?
Some people say you can basically do everything on Solana trade, stake, lend, mint NFTs, use DeFi tools, even play games. And looking at the ecosystem, it’s not just hype. The variety is there.
From DEXs and liquid staking to NFT marketplaces and payment apps, Solana has built a pretty wide range of tools. The real question isn’t whether it can do everything it’s whether users are actually using all those tools consistently.
What’s your take is Solana really becoming the all-in-one chain, or is it still growing into that role?
$SIREN $BULLA $SOL
it's going to bounce back maybe haha
I was trading forex last year and i made over 600K by trading forex 🫡📈
Then one of friend told me to buy crypto, and i put my 600K into crypto
Now it's 70K only 🤬
$SIREN $BULLA $PIPPIN
Then one of friend told me to buy crypto, and i put my 600K into crypto
Now it's 70K only 🤬
$SIREN $BULLA $PIPPIN
Just a reminder we’ve been in moments like this before.
Uncertainty, volatility, fear in the market… and every time it feels like “this time is different.” But history shows that cycles repeat.
$BTC , $ETH , $SOL , XRP,BNB these aren’t random projects anymore. They’ve survived crashes, regulations, liquidity shocks, and full-blown bear markets. Yet they’re still here.
That doesn’t mean price can’t drop more in the short term. It just means the bigger picture hasn’t disappeared.
Markets move in cycles. Panic fades. Structure rebuilds. Strong assets tend to outlast the noise.
Zoom out sometimes it helps.
#MarketSentimentToday
Uncertainty, volatility, fear in the market… and every time it feels like “this time is different.” But history shows that cycles repeat.
$BTC , $ETH , $SOL , XRP,BNB these aren’t random projects anymore. They’ve survived crashes, regulations, liquidity shocks, and full-blown bear markets. Yet they’re still here.
That doesn’t mean price can’t drop more in the short term. It just means the bigger picture hasn’t disappeared.
Markets move in cycles. Panic fades. Structure rebuilds. Strong assets tend to outlast the noise.
Zoom out sometimes it helps.
#MarketSentimentToday
Decided to check out the $KAS chart to see how it’s handling the current market conditions.
Right now, it’s consolidating between 0.03136 and 0.0306565. Price is moving sideways within that range, which suggests the market is waiting for a clear direction.
So far, bulls are doing a decent job defending the 0.0306565 level. As long as that support holds, the structure remains stable. But if it breaks, we could see increased downside pressure.
For now, it’s a tight range watching for either a clean breakout above or a breakdown below before making any strong conclusions
#Kaspa
Right now, it’s consolidating between 0.03136 and 0.0306565. Price is moving sideways within that range, which suggests the market is waiting for a clear direction.
So far, bulls are doing a decent job defending the 0.0306565 level. As long as that support holds, the structure remains stable. But if it breaks, we could see increased downside pressure.
For now, it’s a tight range watching for either a clean breakout above or a breakdown below before making any strong conclusions
#Kaspa
Why Solana's Next Stop Might Be $70 (And Why It'll Hold There)
Solana is at $80.
Down 61% from its $205 all-time high in November 2024.
And I think it's going lower to $70.
But here's the thing: I think it holds there.
Not because of hopium. Because the fundamentals at $70 are too strong to break without a broader market collapse.
Everyone's focused on the price crash.
But they're missing what's happening underneath: Solana's fundamentals are quietly crushing it.
Let me show you why $70 is the line in the sand.
Why $80 to $70 Makes Sense
Before I show you why $70 holds, let me explain why I think we're going there first.
The Short-Term Bearish Setup
Current price: $80
Target: $70
Drop: -12.5%
Why this move makes sense:
1. Bitcoin correlation
If $BTC drops to $60K-$66K (like many analysts expect), Solana follows.
Historically, when BTC drops 10-15%, $SOL drops 15-20%.
2. Altcoin weakness
We're in a risk-off environment. Altcoins get hit harder than BTC.
$80 → $70 fits the pattern.
3. Technical levels
$70 is where major support sits:
Previous consolidation zone (August 2024)Psychological levelWhere DeFi TVL math changes (more on this below)
So yes, I think we dip to $70.
But here's why I think it HOLDS there.
The Big News Nobody Noticed: PayPal Made Solana Its Default
PayPal has quietly made Solana the default network for its blockchain integrations.
Not Ethereum. Not Bitcoin. Solana.
What This Actually Means
PayPal isn't just "adding Solana support." They're defaulting to it.
The timeline:
May 2024: PYUSD (PayPal stablecoin) launches on SolanaApril 2025: SOL added to PayPal/Venmo for buying/selling2026: Solana becomes the default blockchain choice
Why it matters:
When a payments giant with 400+ million users picks Solana as their primary blockchain infrastructure, that's not a test. That's adoption.
What PayPal said:
"The Solana network's speed and scalability make it the ideal blockchain for new payment solutions that are accessible, cost-effective, and instantaneous."
Translation: Ethereum too slow and expensive. Solana actually works for real payments.
The Four Strength Indicators Everyone's Ignoring
1. DeFi TVL Hit All-Time High
Total Value Locked: 80M+ SOL ($6.7 billion)
This is MORE than when Solana was at $200+.
Translation: People aren't leaving. They're depositing MORE capital into Solana DeFi, even as price falls.
Why this matters: TVL shows real usage, not speculation. When TVL rises while price falls, it means fundamentals > hype.
2. Stablecoin Inflows: #1 Across ALL Chains
In the past 24 hours, Solana ranked #1 for stablecoin inflows among all blockchains.
Not Ethereum. Not Base. Not Arbitrum. Solana.
Current stablecoin supply on Solana: $14.6 billion
USDC: $8.6B (59%)USDT: $4.8B (33%)PYUSD: $0.7B (growing)
Why this matters: Stablecoins = actual money being used. When stablecoins flow INTO a chain during a bear market, it signals confidence.
3. RWAs (Real-World Assets) Crushing It
Solana RWA TVL: Over $1 billion
This includes:
Tokenized money market fundsTokenized equitiesInstitutional-grade assets
Why this matters: RWAs aren't speculative. They're real financial institutions putting real assets onchain. They chose Solana.
4. PayPal Default = Institutional Validation
Beyond just being "available" on PayPal, Solana is now the preferred chain.
What PayPal built on Solana:
PYUSD stablecoin (using Token Extensions)Instant settlement infrastructureCross-border payment railsMicrotransaction capability
Why this matters: PayPal doesn't bet on losing horses. They did extensive testing and chose Solana over every other option.
Why These Fundamentals Support $70
Here's the logic:
1. DeFi TVL = Floor at $70
Total Value Locked: 80M+ SOL
At current $80/SOL: That's $6.4 billion in DeFi TVL.
At $70/SOL: That's $5.6 billion in DeFi TVL.
Here's the important part: This TVL is at all-time highs in SOL terms.
Translation: People aren't leaving. They're depositing MORE SOL into DeFi, even as price falls.
Why $70 is the floor:
At $70, the TVL-to-market-cap ratio becomes extremely attractive.
Solana market cap at $70: ~$37 billion
DeFi TVL: $5.6 billion
Ratio: 15% of market cap locked in DeFi
For context:
Ethereum: ~8% of market cap in DeFiBNB Chain: ~3% of market cap in DeFi
At $70, Solana's DeFi-to-market-cap ratio is 2x Ethereum's.
For price to go significantly below $70, you'd need massive DeFi exits. And they're not happening TVL keeps growing.
2. Stablecoin Inflows = Demand
When $14.6 billion in stablecoins sits on a chain, people are using it.
For what?
Trading (Jupiter doing $700M+ daily volume)Payments (PYUSD transfers)Yield (lending/staking)DeFi (liquidity pools)
As long as stablecoins keep flowing IN, there's buying pressure.
3. Institutional Adoption = Credibility
PayPal making Solana their default isn't random.
They chose it because:
✅ Fast (400ms finality)✅ Cheap (fees under $0.01)✅ Scalable (handles millions of transactions/day)✅ Reliable (survived DDoS attacks in 2025)
When institutions validate a chain, retail follows.
4. Network Activity = Real Usage
Daily metrics:
2.5 million active addresses85 million transactions$3.5 billion DEX volume99.9%+ uptime
These aren't speculation numbers. These are USAGE numbers.
The Counterargument: What Could Break $70?
Let me be honest about the risks.
Risk #1: Broader Market Crash
If Bitcoin drops to $40K-$50K, everything goes lower.
Solana's fundamentals won't save it from macro.
Risk #2: Stablecoin Outflows Reverse
Recent data showed some stablecoin outflows.
If that accelerates (users pulling capital OUT), $70 won't hold.
Current status: Inflows are positive again, but watch this closely.
Risk #3: Regulatory Issues
Solana faces a class-action lawsuit.
If something bad develops legally, confidence could crack.
Risk #4: Network Issues
Solana's had outages before (2021-2022).
One major failure during high volume? Price dumps.
Mitigation: Firedancer client (coming 2026) should fix this.
What I'm Watching
If you're trying to figure out if $70 holds, watch these:
1. Stablecoin Supply
Currently: $14.6B (growing)
If it drops below $13B: Red flag.
If it grows above $16B: Bullish confirmation.
2. DeFi TVL in SOL Terms
Currently: 80M+ SOL
If it drops below 70M SOL: People are exiting.
If it stays above 80M: Fundamentals holding.
3. Daily Active Addresses
Currently: 2.5 million
If it drops below 2M: Usage declining.
If it grows above 3M: Network effect accelerating.
4. PayPal PYUSD Growth
Currently: $700M market cap
Watch for: $1B milestone.
If PYUSD grows while price is down, it proves payments use case is real.
The Bottom Line
Solana is at $80.
My call: It dips to $70, then holds.
Why the dip?
Bitcoin correlation (if BTC goes to $60K-$66K)Risk-off environment (altcoins get hit harder)Technical pullback (healthy retest of support)
Why it holds at $70?
✅ PayPal made it the default blockchain (institutional validation)✅ DeFi TVL at all-time highs in SOL terms (15% of market cap locked)✅ Stablecoin inflows leading all chains ($14.6B on-chain)✅ RWAs over $1B (real institutional capital)✅ Network usage metrics strong (2.5M addresses, 85M txns/day)
The math:
At $70, Solana's fundamentals are too strong to ignore:
DeFi TVL ratio 2x Ethereum'sStablecoin supply = real demandPayPal infrastructure = institutional adoptionNetwork activity = genuine usage
Could it go below $70? Only if:
Bitcoin crashes to $40K-$50K (macro collapse)DeFi TVL exits (not happening)Stablecoins flow out (currently flowing IN)Network fails (hasn't happened since 2022)
My bet: $70 is where smart money accumulates.
Not because Solana is "cheap." But because the fundamentals support that price and breaking below would require fundamentals to deteriorate. They're not. They're strengthening.
What's your take do you think Solana dips to $70, or does $80 hold? And if it hits $70, are you buying? Let me know some also say $50 is still possible
Down 61% from its $205 all-time high in November 2024.
And I think it's going lower to $70.
But here's the thing: I think it holds there.
Not because of hopium. Because the fundamentals at $70 are too strong to break without a broader market collapse.
Everyone's focused on the price crash.
But they're missing what's happening underneath: Solana's fundamentals are quietly crushing it.
Let me show you why $70 is the line in the sand.
Why $80 to $70 Makes Sense
Before I show you why $70 holds, let me explain why I think we're going there first.
The Short-Term Bearish Setup
Current price: $80
Target: $70
Drop: -12.5%
Why this move makes sense:
1. Bitcoin correlation
If $BTC drops to $60K-$66K (like many analysts expect), Solana follows.
Historically, when BTC drops 10-15%, $SOL drops 15-20%.
2. Altcoin weakness
We're in a risk-off environment. Altcoins get hit harder than BTC.
$80 → $70 fits the pattern.
3. Technical levels
$70 is where major support sits:
Previous consolidation zone (August 2024)Psychological levelWhere DeFi TVL math changes (more on this below)
So yes, I think we dip to $70.
But here's why I think it HOLDS there.
The Big News Nobody Noticed: PayPal Made Solana Its Default
PayPal has quietly made Solana the default network for its blockchain integrations.
Not Ethereum. Not Bitcoin. Solana.
What This Actually Means
PayPal isn't just "adding Solana support." They're defaulting to it.
The timeline:
May 2024: PYUSD (PayPal stablecoin) launches on SolanaApril 2025: SOL added to PayPal/Venmo for buying/selling2026: Solana becomes the default blockchain choice
Why it matters:
When a payments giant with 400+ million users picks Solana as their primary blockchain infrastructure, that's not a test. That's adoption.
What PayPal said:
"The Solana network's speed and scalability make it the ideal blockchain for new payment solutions that are accessible, cost-effective, and instantaneous."
Translation: Ethereum too slow and expensive. Solana actually works for real payments.
The Four Strength Indicators Everyone's Ignoring
1. DeFi TVL Hit All-Time High
Total Value Locked: 80M+ SOL ($6.7 billion)
This is MORE than when Solana was at $200+.
Translation: People aren't leaving. They're depositing MORE capital into Solana DeFi, even as price falls.
Why this matters: TVL shows real usage, not speculation. When TVL rises while price falls, it means fundamentals > hype.
2. Stablecoin Inflows: #1 Across ALL Chains
In the past 24 hours, Solana ranked #1 for stablecoin inflows among all blockchains.
Not Ethereum. Not Base. Not Arbitrum. Solana.
Current stablecoin supply on Solana: $14.6 billion
USDC: $8.6B (59%)USDT: $4.8B (33%)PYUSD: $0.7B (growing)
Why this matters: Stablecoins = actual money being used. When stablecoins flow INTO a chain during a bear market, it signals confidence.
3. RWAs (Real-World Assets) Crushing It
Solana RWA TVL: Over $1 billion
This includes:
Tokenized money market fundsTokenized equitiesInstitutional-grade assets
Why this matters: RWAs aren't speculative. They're real financial institutions putting real assets onchain. They chose Solana.
4. PayPal Default = Institutional Validation
Beyond just being "available" on PayPal, Solana is now the preferred chain.
What PayPal built on Solana:
PYUSD stablecoin (using Token Extensions)Instant settlement infrastructureCross-border payment railsMicrotransaction capability
Why this matters: PayPal doesn't bet on losing horses. They did extensive testing and chose Solana over every other option.
Why These Fundamentals Support $70
Here's the logic:
1. DeFi TVL = Floor at $70
Total Value Locked: 80M+ SOL
At current $80/SOL: That's $6.4 billion in DeFi TVL.
At $70/SOL: That's $5.6 billion in DeFi TVL.
Here's the important part: This TVL is at all-time highs in SOL terms.
Translation: People aren't leaving. They're depositing MORE SOL into DeFi, even as price falls.
Why $70 is the floor:
At $70, the TVL-to-market-cap ratio becomes extremely attractive.
Solana market cap at $70: ~$37 billion
DeFi TVL: $5.6 billion
Ratio: 15% of market cap locked in DeFi
For context:
Ethereum: ~8% of market cap in DeFiBNB Chain: ~3% of market cap in DeFi
At $70, Solana's DeFi-to-market-cap ratio is 2x Ethereum's.
For price to go significantly below $70, you'd need massive DeFi exits. And they're not happening TVL keeps growing.
2. Stablecoin Inflows = Demand
When $14.6 billion in stablecoins sits on a chain, people are using it.
For what?
Trading (Jupiter doing $700M+ daily volume)Payments (PYUSD transfers)Yield (lending/staking)DeFi (liquidity pools)
As long as stablecoins keep flowing IN, there's buying pressure.
3. Institutional Adoption = Credibility
PayPal making Solana their default isn't random.
They chose it because:
✅ Fast (400ms finality)✅ Cheap (fees under $0.01)✅ Scalable (handles millions of transactions/day)✅ Reliable (survived DDoS attacks in 2025)
When institutions validate a chain, retail follows.
4. Network Activity = Real Usage
Daily metrics:
2.5 million active addresses85 million transactions$3.5 billion DEX volume99.9%+ uptime
These aren't speculation numbers. These are USAGE numbers.
The Counterargument: What Could Break $70?
Let me be honest about the risks.
Risk #1: Broader Market Crash
If Bitcoin drops to $40K-$50K, everything goes lower.
Solana's fundamentals won't save it from macro.
Risk #2: Stablecoin Outflows Reverse
Recent data showed some stablecoin outflows.
If that accelerates (users pulling capital OUT), $70 won't hold.
Current status: Inflows are positive again, but watch this closely.
Risk #3: Regulatory Issues
Solana faces a class-action lawsuit.
If something bad develops legally, confidence could crack.
Risk #4: Network Issues
Solana's had outages before (2021-2022).
One major failure during high volume? Price dumps.
Mitigation: Firedancer client (coming 2026) should fix this.
What I'm Watching
If you're trying to figure out if $70 holds, watch these:
1. Stablecoin Supply
Currently: $14.6B (growing)
If it drops below $13B: Red flag.
If it grows above $16B: Bullish confirmation.
2. DeFi TVL in SOL Terms
Currently: 80M+ SOL
If it drops below 70M SOL: People are exiting.
If it stays above 80M: Fundamentals holding.
3. Daily Active Addresses
Currently: 2.5 million
If it drops below 2M: Usage declining.
If it grows above 3M: Network effect accelerating.
4. PayPal PYUSD Growth
Currently: $700M market cap
Watch for: $1B milestone.
If PYUSD grows while price is down, it proves payments use case is real.
The Bottom Line
Solana is at $80.
My call: It dips to $70, then holds.
Why the dip?
Bitcoin correlation (if BTC goes to $60K-$66K)Risk-off environment (altcoins get hit harder)Technical pullback (healthy retest of support)
Why it holds at $70?
✅ PayPal made it the default blockchain (institutional validation)✅ DeFi TVL at all-time highs in SOL terms (15% of market cap locked)✅ Stablecoin inflows leading all chains ($14.6B on-chain)✅ RWAs over $1B (real institutional capital)✅ Network usage metrics strong (2.5M addresses, 85M txns/day)
The math:
At $70, Solana's fundamentals are too strong to ignore:
DeFi TVL ratio 2x Ethereum'sStablecoin supply = real demandPayPal infrastructure = institutional adoptionNetwork activity = genuine usage
Could it go below $70? Only if:
Bitcoin crashes to $40K-$50K (macro collapse)DeFi TVL exits (not happening)Stablecoins flow out (currently flowing IN)Network fails (hasn't happened since 2022)
My bet: $70 is where smart money accumulates.
Not because Solana is "cheap." But because the fundamentals support that price and breaking below would require fundamentals to deteriorate. They're not. They're strengthening.
What's your take do you think Solana dips to $70, or does $80 hold? And if it hits $70, are you buying? Let me know some also say $50 is still possible
I had a good short on $ME until that beautiful, strong long candle took me out.
Still keeping an eye on the ME chart to see if we’re heading lower from here.
Still keeping an eye on the ME chart to see if we’re heading lower from here.
Feb 12 Update:
The flows in crypto ETFs are telling a story this week.
#Bitcoin ETFs:
1D NetFlow: -3,711 $BTC (-$252.63M) 🔴
7D NetFlow: -1,985 BTC (-$135.12M) 🔴
Bitcoin continues to see outflows on a daily scale, hinting that some investors might be taking profits or reallocating. Even over the week, though slightly smaller, the net outflow shows that caution is still lingering.
#Ethereum ETFs:
1D NetFlow: -27,535 $ETH (-$54.77M) 🔴
7D NetFlow: -63,996 ETH(-$127.29M) 🔴
Ethereum’s outflows are more pronounced, especially over the week. It looks like larger holders are moving out, maybe waiting for a clearer signal before jumping back in.
#Solana ETFs:
1D NetFlow: +1,708 $SOL (+$140K) 🟢
7D NetFlow: -53,134 $SOL (-$4.36M) 🔴
Solana is a mixed bag. A small inflow today shows some renewed interest, but the weekly outflow suggests that overall sentiment is still cautious.
Takeaway: Investors are leaning on selective caution big moves are still being made, but #bitcoin and #Ethereum see more exits than entries, while Solana is trying to catch some attention again. Watching these flows can give clues on where institutional money is rotating next.
The flows in crypto ETFs are telling a story this week.
#Bitcoin ETFs:
1D NetFlow: -3,711 $BTC (-$252.63M) 🔴
7D NetFlow: -1,985 BTC (-$135.12M) 🔴
Bitcoin continues to see outflows on a daily scale, hinting that some investors might be taking profits or reallocating. Even over the week, though slightly smaller, the net outflow shows that caution is still lingering.
#Ethereum ETFs:
1D NetFlow: -27,535 $ETH (-$54.77M) 🔴
7D NetFlow: -63,996 ETH(-$127.29M) 🔴
Ethereum’s outflows are more pronounced, especially over the week. It looks like larger holders are moving out, maybe waiting for a clearer signal before jumping back in.
#Solana ETFs:
1D NetFlow: +1,708 $SOL (+$140K) 🟢
7D NetFlow: -53,134 $SOL (-$4.36M) 🔴
Solana is a mixed bag. A small inflow today shows some renewed interest, but the weekly outflow suggests that overall sentiment is still cautious.
Takeaway: Investors are leaning on selective caution big moves are still being made, but #bitcoin and #Ethereum see more exits than entries, while Solana is trying to catch some attention again. Watching these flows can give clues on where institutional money is rotating next.
$ME is in a clear free fall right now.
There was an attempt from bulls to step in around the 0.1785 level, but sellers quickly regained control. That tells you the downside pressure is still strong.
At this point, I’m expecting a bit of consolidation maybe some sideways movement as the market cools off before another potential leg down.
For now, structure favors the bears. Let’s see how price reacts after this pause.
There was an attempt from bulls to step in around the 0.1785 level, but sellers quickly regained control. That tells you the downside pressure is still strong.
At this point, I’m expecting a bit of consolidation maybe some sideways movement as the market cools off before another potential leg down.
For now, structure favors the bears. Let’s see how price reacts after this pause.
$BTC liquidity map is getting interesting.
On the 1-week liquidation heatmap, there’s clear heavy liquidity stacked above $72K–$75K, while another dense cluster sits down near $65K.
Right now, price is chopping right in the middle of those two zones almost like it’s stuck between magnets.
And we all know how this usually plays out. Liquidity tends to get hunted. Price often moves toward where the most stops and liquidations are sitting before making a real decision.
The big question now is simple:
Does BTC sweep the upside liquidity above $72K first, or flush down into the $65K zone before any real reversal?
For now, it’s a waiting game but one side is likely getting taken out before the next major move begins.
#BTC
On the 1-week liquidation heatmap, there’s clear heavy liquidity stacked above $72K–$75K, while another dense cluster sits down near $65K.
Right now, price is chopping right in the middle of those two zones almost like it’s stuck between magnets.
And we all know how this usually plays out. Liquidity tends to get hunted. Price often moves toward where the most stops and liquidations are sitting before making a real decision.
The big question now is simple:
Does BTC sweep the upside liquidity above $72K first, or flush down into the $65K zone before any real reversal?
For now, it’s a waiting game but one side is likely getting taken out before the next major move begins.
#BTC
Quick update on the $ZAMA chart.
Bulls tried hard to defend the 1.804 level and held it for a while, but bears eventually broke through and the dip continued. Once that support gave way, momentum clearly shifted to the downside.
Now price is approaching the 0.017 area, which looks like the next key support and it’s close to breaking.
If that level flips into resistance, I’ll be watching for a pullback to that zone for a possible entry.
For now, structure is still bearish. I’ll wait for confirmation instead of rushing in.
#Zama
Bulls tried hard to defend the 1.804 level and held it for a while, but bears eventually broke through and the dip continued. Once that support gave way, momentum clearly shifted to the downside.
Now price is approaching the 0.017 area, which looks like the next key support and it’s close to breaking.
If that level flips into resistance, I’ll be watching for a pullback to that zone for a possible entry.
For now, structure is still bearish. I’ll wait for confirmation instead of rushing in.
#Zama
Insane volatility in the markets right now.
All the gains made after the U.S. unemployment data just got wiped out in a matter of hours. What looked like a relief rally quickly turned into a full reset.
The S&P 500 is down 0.3%, Nasdaq down 0.35%, and the Russell 2000 is leading losses at -1.25%. That tells you risk appetite is fading fast, especially in small-cap stocks.
Crypto didn’t escape it either.
$BTC slipped below $66,000, $ETH touched $1,900, and nearly $90 billion has been erased from the total crypto market cap. Most assets are now sitting at their daily lows.
This is what happens when the market shifts from optimism to uncertainty in seconds. One minute it’s “soft landing,” next minute it’s “risk-off.”
Right now, it’s less about narratives and more about liquidity. When momentum fades, everything gets repriced quickly.
#ETH #BTC
All the gains made after the U.S. unemployment data just got wiped out in a matter of hours. What looked like a relief rally quickly turned into a full reset.
The S&P 500 is down 0.3%, Nasdaq down 0.35%, and the Russell 2000 is leading losses at -1.25%. That tells you risk appetite is fading fast, especially in small-cap stocks.
Crypto didn’t escape it either.
$BTC slipped below $66,000, $ETH touched $1,900, and nearly $90 billion has been erased from the total crypto market cap. Most assets are now sitting at their daily lows.
This is what happens when the market shifts from optimism to uncertainty in seconds. One minute it’s “soft landing,” next minute it’s “risk-off.”
Right now, it’s less about narratives and more about liquidity. When momentum fades, everything gets repriced quickly.
#ETH #BTC
Someone just paid $128,322 in $ETH gas fees for a single transaction.
Yeah… just the fee. Not the transaction amount the fee.
For context, gas fees on Ethereum are what you pay validators to process and confirm your transaction. The more complex or urgent the transaction, the higher the gas. When the network is congested, fees can spike hard.
Now, paying over $128K in gas usually means one of a few things:
• It was a very large transaction (possibly millions being moved).
• It involved a complex smart contract interaction.
• The sender manually set an extremely high priority fee.
• Or it was simply a costly mistake.
Sometimes whales don’t care about the fee if they’re moving serious size and need instant execution. In volatile markets, speed matters more than cost. Other times, bots miscalculate gas settings and overpay massively.
Either way, moves like this tell you one thing: big money is active on-chain.
When people are willing to burn six figures just to get a transaction through, it means something important is happening behind the scenes.
The real question is was this urgency, strategy, or an expensive error?
#ETH
Yeah… just the fee. Not the transaction amount the fee.
For context, gas fees on Ethereum are what you pay validators to process and confirm your transaction. The more complex or urgent the transaction, the higher the gas. When the network is congested, fees can spike hard.
Now, paying over $128K in gas usually means one of a few things:
• It was a very large transaction (possibly millions being moved).
• It involved a complex smart contract interaction.
• The sender manually set an extremely high priority fee.
• Or it was simply a costly mistake.
Sometimes whales don’t care about the fee if they’re moving serious size and need instant execution. In volatile markets, speed matters more than cost. Other times, bots miscalculate gas settings and overpay massively.
Either way, moves like this tell you one thing: big money is active on-chain.
When people are willing to burn six figures just to get a transaction through, it means something important is happening behind the scenes.
The real question is was this urgency, strategy, or an expensive error?
#ETH
$GHST bounced right off the 0.128 area, exactly where we were watching for a reaction.
That zone acted as short-term support, and buyers stepped in cleanly from there. Price is now pushing up, but the key is whether it can build structure above this level.
If momentum holds and we start seeing higher lows, that bounce could mean something. If not, it might just turn into another consolidation phase.
For now, 0.128 proved important let’s see what price does next.
#GHST
That zone acted as short-term support, and buyers stepped in cleanly from there. Price is now pushing up, but the key is whether it can build structure above this level.
If momentum holds and we start seeing higher lows, that bounce could mean something. If not, it might just turn into another consolidation phase.
For now, 0.128 proved important let’s see what price does next.
#GHST
$GHST had a strong pump, but now it’s clearly correcting.
On the 1H timeframe, it’s been breaking key support levels and forming lower highs, which shows sellers are in control for now.
Price is currently heading toward the 0.128 zone that’s the next level I’m watching.
If we get a clean reaction there, I’ll look for a possible entry. But no rush. I need proper confirmation first.
For now, momentum is still slightly bearish.
#GHST
On the 1H timeframe, it’s been breaking key support levels and forming lower highs, which shows sellers are in control for now.
Price is currently heading toward the 0.128 zone that’s the next level I’m watching.
If we get a clean reaction there, I’ll look for a possible entry. But no rush. I need proper confirmation first.
For now, momentum is still slightly bearish.
#GHST
I Just Listened to CZ's All-In Podcast. Here's What I Learned
I spent 90+ minutes listening to CZ's first major interview since getting out of prison.
The All-In Podcast dropped it yesterday, and honestly? I wasn't expecting much. I figured it'd be the usual crypto hype, carefully scripted PR answers, maybe some generic "#bitcoin to the moon" takes.
I was wrong.
CZ was... real. Honest. No filter.
And he said some things that completely changed how I'm thinking about this market.
The biggest one?
He thinks 2026 might break the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle.
Not a typical bear year. A continuation.
But that's just one piece. He also opened up about what prison was actually like, how the Trump pardon felt, why he's genuinely happy he doesn't run Binance anymore, and why he believes AI agents are going to become crypto's biggest users.
Let me break down what I picked up the stuff that actually matters.
What I Learned About His Prison Time
First, let's talk about where he's been.
CZ spent 4 months in federal prison after pleading guilty to anti-money laundering violations. The settlement? $4.3 billion. One of the largest in corporate history.
What Prison Was Actually Like
I was curious about this part. What's it like when you go from running a multi-billion dollar exchange to... federal prison?
He was surprisingly open about it.
On the social hierarchy:
"There are levels. Some people have been there 10+ years. You respect seniority."
He talked about how there's a whole social structure inside. You don't just show up and act like you're CZ, crypto billionaire. You're just another inmate.
On the mental side:
"I went in knowing it was finite. 4 months. Some guys don't have a release date. That's a different kind of hell."
This hit me. Knowing you have an end date changes everything. Imagine being in there without knowing when or if you're getting out.
The unexpected part:
"I had time to think. No distractions. No pressure. Just... space."
He actually described prison as mentally clarifying.
Think about it: when you're running Binance, your brain never stops. Emails, crises, decisions 24/7.
Prison? Forced pause.
"I actually got a lot of mental clarity," he said.
I wasn't expecting that take.
The Trump Pardon Question
Then the hosts asked about the pardon.
Trump granted CZ clemency in January 2025, cutting his sentence.
How did it feel?
"Relief. Not celebration. Just... relief."
I appreciated the honesty there. He didn't try to make it some triumphant moment.
The pay-to-play question:
The hosts directly asked: "Was there a deal? Did you pay for this?"
CZ's answer: "Absolutely not."
He said he had zero contact with the Trump administration about it. It came as a surprise.
"People want to create conspiracies. There was no deal. I didn't lobby for it. It happened."
So why did Trump do it?
CZ thinks it's part of a bigger shift in how the U.S. government sees crypto.
"The tide has turned. Crypto isn't the enemy anymore. Regulators are realizing they need to work WITH the industry, not against it."
That part made sense to me. The political winds have definitely changed since 2023.
He's Actually Happy He Doesn't Run Binance Anymore
This was the quote that stuck with me most:
"I am actually grateful that I don't have to run Binance anymore. The mental load is gone."
Wait, what?
This is the guy who built Binance from zero to the largest crypto exchange on the planet.
And he's... relieved to not run it?
Yeah. He is.
His explanation hit different:
"Money is just one thread in a spiderweb. If you pull it too hard, the rest of the web family, health, peace snaps."
That's real.
Running Binance was consuming him. Every waking moment. Every decision. Every crisis.
Now? He's free.
"I'm a normal dude," he said. "You don't need to be super smart to be successful, just consistent and a bit lucky."
I found that refreshing. No ego. No "I'm a genius" flex. Just honesty.
The 2026 Prediction That Got My Attention
Okay, now the market stuff.
How Bitcoin Cycles Usually Work
Historically, Bitcoin follows this pattern:
Year 1: Bull market, new ATH
Year 2: Crash, bear market
Year 3: Bottoming, accumulation
Year 4: Recovery, new ATH
Then repeat.
So:
2021: Peaked at $69K
2022: Crashed to $15.5K
2023: Bottomed around $25K-$30K
2024: Recovery, then new ATH at $126K
2026: ??? (Should be a bear year, right?)
CZ Says: Maybe Not This Time
Here's where it got interesting.
CZ thinks 2026 could break the cycle.
Not a typical bear year. Maybe a continuation.
His reasoning:
1. The ETFs changed everything.
"The ETFs provide a floor. We're not going to see 80% crashes like we used to."
He explained that institutional money doesn't panic. When Bitcoin drops, they buy more.
Retail? We panic sell.
Institutions? They accumulate.
2. Countries are buying Bitcoin now.
El Salvador. Bhutan. Probably others we don't know about yet.
Nation-states don't dump in bear markets. They're long-term holders.
3. Retail hasn't even FOMO'd yet.
"Institutions are in. But retail? They're not euphoric yet. That's still coming."
His point: If retail piles in AFTER institutions have already positioned, the cycle extends longer.
What a Supercycle Would Look Like
Instead of:
2026: Crash to $50K2027: Bottom and recover
Maybe:
2026: Consolidate at $150K2027: Continue to $300K
That's a supercycle.
Do I Buy It?
Honestly? I'm torn.
The ETFs ARE different. We've never had $50+ billion in institutional vehicles before.
And if countries are quietly stacking, that's new too.
But... cycles exist for a reason. Euphoria builds. Leverage piles up. Then everything crashes.
I think CZ might be right that crashes will be shallower (50% instead of 80%).
But cycles ending completely? That feels optimistic.
We'll see.
His $200K Bitcoin Take
The hosts tried to get CZ to make price predictions.
He mostly dodged.
"I don't do 3month, 6month calls. That's just noise."
But long-term?
He's sure Bitcoin hits $200,000.
"It's not IF. It's WHEN. 5-10 years."
Why He's So Confident
I wrote down his reasoning:
1. Math is simple.
21 million Bitcoin max. Demand keeps growing. Price has to go up.
2. We're still early.
"Institutions just started getting in. This isn't the middle. It's the beginning."
3. Fiat keeps failing.
"When national currencies collapse, people look for alternatives. Bitcoin is that."
He didn't give a timeline. But his conviction was clear.
$200K is coming. Just... eventually.
The AI + Crypto Idea That Blew My Mind
CZ's not just sitting around post-Binance.
He's building Giggle Academy (free education platform) and investing in AI + Crypto.
And he made a prediction that I can't stop thinking about:
AI Agents Will Use Crypto More Than Humans
Here's the thesis he laid out:
AI agents need money to operate.
To:
Pay for computing powerBuy dataHire servicesTransact with other AI agents
But they can't use traditional banks.
Why?
Can't open bank accounts (no KYC/identity)Can't pass verificationCan't hold credit cards
So what's the solution?
Crypto.
"AI agents need native digital currency. They CAN'T use banks. Crypto is their only option."
Why This Actually Makes Sense
Think about it:
If millions of AI agents are operating globally, all needing to transact, they can't exactly walk into a Chase branch and open an account.
They need:
Digital wallets (check)Instant transactions (check)No permission required (check)
That's crypto.
What This Means
If CZ's right, crypto adoption won't be about convincing people.
It'll be about AI agents using it by default because they have no other choice.
That's infrastructure-level demand.
Not speculative. Not optional.
Required.
"We won't need to sell people on crypto. AI will just use it," he said.
I'm still processing this one. But it makes way more sense than I expected.
His Brutal Take on Meme Coins
The hosts brought up meme coins.
CZ didn't sugarcoat it.
"90% of them will fail."
Why Most Will Die
"Most have no utility. No culture. No real community. Just speculation."
He said only the ones with actual cultural staying power survive.
Example: $DOGE coin.
"Doge has been around for years. Real community. Cultural value. That's not going away."
But the random dog coin from last week?
"Gone in 6 months."
What I Took From This
If you're holding meme coins, ask yourself:
Will people care about this in 2 years?Does it have real community beyond just pumping?Or is it pure hype?
If it's just hype, he's saying: take profits now.
I appreciated the honesty. No shilling. Just reality.
Regulation: The Fragmented Mess
CZ was asked about the state of crypto regulation globally.
His take: It's a mess. And it's getting worse.
The problem:
Every country has different rules.
What's legal in the U.S. is illegal in China.
What's allowed in Europe is banned in India.
What flies in Dubai gets you arrested in Nigeria.
The result?
Crypto companies are drowning in compliance costs.
"You need a different legal team for every jurisdiction. It's unsustainable."
The solution?
CZ advocates for "Regulatory Passporting" similar to the EU's MiCA framework.
"If you get licensed in one region, it should apply across multiple countries. Like the EU passport system."
Will it happen?
"It's the only realistic path forward. Otherwise, only giant companies can afford compliance. That kills innovation."
Binance's Future: Survival Over Growth
CZ stepped down as Binance CEO as part of the DOJ settlement.
New leadership. New structure. New phase.
What's Binance's strategy now?
"Survival over growth."
CZ was candid:
"The hyper-growth days are over. Now it's about compliance, stability, and surviving long-term."
Binance is transitioning from a "move fast and break things" startup to a traditional corporate structure.
Why?
Because global regulators demand it.
Does CZ support this?
Yes.
"Binance needs to mature. That means slower growth, but more stability. I'm okay with that."
He genuinely seems relieved to not be dealing with it anymore.
ETFs: The "Floor" That Changed Everything
One of CZ's most important points:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are preventing the 80% crashes of the past.
How?
"ETFs provide a floor. When price drops, institutions BUY. They don't panic sell like retail."
Historical crashes:
2018: -85% (from $20K to $3K)2022: -78% (from $69K to $15.5K)
Current crash:
2026: -46% (from $126K to $67K... so far)
The difference?
#ETFs .
"Institutions see $70K Bitcoin and think 'discount.' Retail sees it and thinks 'it's going to zero.'"
That behavioral difference creates a price floor.
The implication:
Bear markets might be shallower going forward.
Not 80% crashes. Maybe 50-60% max.
But they might also last longer.
Instead of a quick capitulation wick, we get a slow grind down as institutions accumulate.
What I'm Taking Away From All This
After listening to the full 90 minutes, here's what stuck with me:
1. The 2026 Supercycle Idea
CZ thinks the traditional 4-year cycle might break because:
ETFs provide a floorCountries are buyingRetail hasn't peaked yet
My take: Possible. But I'm not betting my whole portfolio on it. Cycles have a way of reasserting themselves.
2. Bitcoin to $200K
He's certain. "When, not if." 5-10 years.
My take: Seems reasonable long-term. Just don't expect it next month.
3. AI Agents + Crypto
AI needs crypto because they can't use banks.
My take: This is the idea I can't stop thinking about. If it plays out, it's a game-changer.
4. 90% of Meme Coins Die
Only ones with real culture survive.
My take: He's right. History will prove it.
5. ETFs Changed Everything
They prevent 80% crashes.
My take: Already seeing it. Current crash is 46%, not 80%.
6. He's Happier Now
"Grateful I don't run Binance anymore."
My take: Money isn't everything. Mental peace matters.
My Bottom Line
Honestly? This was one of the most refreshing crypto interviews I've heard in a while.
No hype. No shilling. Just a guy who's been through hell and come out with clarity.
His message:
Crypto's future is bright (institutions, AI, adoption)But it won't be a straight lineMost garbage will die (meme coins)Bitcoin will hit $200K eventually2026 might surprise us
Whether you agree or not, CZ's thought deeply about where this is all going.
And I think his insights are worth paying attention to.
If you listened to the podcast too what did you pick up?
Do you buy the supercycle thesis? And what about the AI + crypto idea? Let me know what you think.
The All-In Podcast dropped it yesterday, and honestly? I wasn't expecting much. I figured it'd be the usual crypto hype, carefully scripted PR answers, maybe some generic "#bitcoin to the moon" takes.
I was wrong.
CZ was... real. Honest. No filter.
And he said some things that completely changed how I'm thinking about this market.
The biggest one?
He thinks 2026 might break the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle.
Not a typical bear year. A continuation.
But that's just one piece. He also opened up about what prison was actually like, how the Trump pardon felt, why he's genuinely happy he doesn't run Binance anymore, and why he believes AI agents are going to become crypto's biggest users.
Let me break down what I picked up the stuff that actually matters.
What I Learned About His Prison Time
First, let's talk about where he's been.
CZ spent 4 months in federal prison after pleading guilty to anti-money laundering violations. The settlement? $4.3 billion. One of the largest in corporate history.
What Prison Was Actually Like
I was curious about this part. What's it like when you go from running a multi-billion dollar exchange to... federal prison?
He was surprisingly open about it.
On the social hierarchy:
"There are levels. Some people have been there 10+ years. You respect seniority."
He talked about how there's a whole social structure inside. You don't just show up and act like you're CZ, crypto billionaire. You're just another inmate.
On the mental side:
"I went in knowing it was finite. 4 months. Some guys don't have a release date. That's a different kind of hell."
This hit me. Knowing you have an end date changes everything. Imagine being in there without knowing when or if you're getting out.
The unexpected part:
"I had time to think. No distractions. No pressure. Just... space."
He actually described prison as mentally clarifying.
Think about it: when you're running Binance, your brain never stops. Emails, crises, decisions 24/7.
Prison? Forced pause.
"I actually got a lot of mental clarity," he said.
I wasn't expecting that take.
The Trump Pardon Question
Then the hosts asked about the pardon.
Trump granted CZ clemency in January 2025, cutting his sentence.
How did it feel?
"Relief. Not celebration. Just... relief."
I appreciated the honesty there. He didn't try to make it some triumphant moment.
The pay-to-play question:
The hosts directly asked: "Was there a deal? Did you pay for this?"
CZ's answer: "Absolutely not."
He said he had zero contact with the Trump administration about it. It came as a surprise.
"People want to create conspiracies. There was no deal. I didn't lobby for it. It happened."
So why did Trump do it?
CZ thinks it's part of a bigger shift in how the U.S. government sees crypto.
"The tide has turned. Crypto isn't the enemy anymore. Regulators are realizing they need to work WITH the industry, not against it."
That part made sense to me. The political winds have definitely changed since 2023.
He's Actually Happy He Doesn't Run Binance Anymore
This was the quote that stuck with me most:
"I am actually grateful that I don't have to run Binance anymore. The mental load is gone."
Wait, what?
This is the guy who built Binance from zero to the largest crypto exchange on the planet.
And he's... relieved to not run it?
Yeah. He is.
His explanation hit different:
"Money is just one thread in a spiderweb. If you pull it too hard, the rest of the web family, health, peace snaps."
That's real.
Running Binance was consuming him. Every waking moment. Every decision. Every crisis.
Now? He's free.
"I'm a normal dude," he said. "You don't need to be super smart to be successful, just consistent and a bit lucky."
I found that refreshing. No ego. No "I'm a genius" flex. Just honesty.
The 2026 Prediction That Got My Attention
Okay, now the market stuff.
How Bitcoin Cycles Usually Work
Historically, Bitcoin follows this pattern:
Year 1: Bull market, new ATH
Year 2: Crash, bear market
Year 3: Bottoming, accumulation
Year 4: Recovery, new ATH
Then repeat.
So:
2021: Peaked at $69K
2022: Crashed to $15.5K
2023: Bottomed around $25K-$30K
2024: Recovery, then new ATH at $126K
2026: ??? (Should be a bear year, right?)
CZ Says: Maybe Not This Time
Here's where it got interesting.
CZ thinks 2026 could break the cycle.
Not a typical bear year. Maybe a continuation.
His reasoning:
1. The ETFs changed everything.
"The ETFs provide a floor. We're not going to see 80% crashes like we used to."
He explained that institutional money doesn't panic. When Bitcoin drops, they buy more.
Retail? We panic sell.
Institutions? They accumulate.
2. Countries are buying Bitcoin now.
El Salvador. Bhutan. Probably others we don't know about yet.
Nation-states don't dump in bear markets. They're long-term holders.
3. Retail hasn't even FOMO'd yet.
"Institutions are in. But retail? They're not euphoric yet. That's still coming."
His point: If retail piles in AFTER institutions have already positioned, the cycle extends longer.
What a Supercycle Would Look Like
Instead of:
2026: Crash to $50K2027: Bottom and recover
Maybe:
2026: Consolidate at $150K2027: Continue to $300K
That's a supercycle.
Do I Buy It?
Honestly? I'm torn.
The ETFs ARE different. We've never had $50+ billion in institutional vehicles before.
And if countries are quietly stacking, that's new too.
But... cycles exist for a reason. Euphoria builds. Leverage piles up. Then everything crashes.
I think CZ might be right that crashes will be shallower (50% instead of 80%).
But cycles ending completely? That feels optimistic.
We'll see.
His $200K Bitcoin Take
The hosts tried to get CZ to make price predictions.
He mostly dodged.
"I don't do 3month, 6month calls. That's just noise."
But long-term?
He's sure Bitcoin hits $200,000.
"It's not IF. It's WHEN. 5-10 years."
Why He's So Confident
I wrote down his reasoning:
1. Math is simple.
21 million Bitcoin max. Demand keeps growing. Price has to go up.
2. We're still early.
"Institutions just started getting in. This isn't the middle. It's the beginning."
3. Fiat keeps failing.
"When national currencies collapse, people look for alternatives. Bitcoin is that."
He didn't give a timeline. But his conviction was clear.
$200K is coming. Just... eventually.
The AI + Crypto Idea That Blew My Mind
CZ's not just sitting around post-Binance.
He's building Giggle Academy (free education platform) and investing in AI + Crypto.
And he made a prediction that I can't stop thinking about:
AI Agents Will Use Crypto More Than Humans
Here's the thesis he laid out:
AI agents need money to operate.
To:
Pay for computing powerBuy dataHire servicesTransact with other AI agents
But they can't use traditional banks.
Why?
Can't open bank accounts (no KYC/identity)Can't pass verificationCan't hold credit cards
So what's the solution?
Crypto.
"AI agents need native digital currency. They CAN'T use banks. Crypto is their only option."
Why This Actually Makes Sense
Think about it:
If millions of AI agents are operating globally, all needing to transact, they can't exactly walk into a Chase branch and open an account.
They need:
Digital wallets (check)Instant transactions (check)No permission required (check)
That's crypto.
What This Means
If CZ's right, crypto adoption won't be about convincing people.
It'll be about AI agents using it by default because they have no other choice.
That's infrastructure-level demand.
Not speculative. Not optional.
Required.
"We won't need to sell people on crypto. AI will just use it," he said.
I'm still processing this one. But it makes way more sense than I expected.
His Brutal Take on Meme Coins
The hosts brought up meme coins.
CZ didn't sugarcoat it.
"90% of them will fail."
Why Most Will Die
"Most have no utility. No culture. No real community. Just speculation."
He said only the ones with actual cultural staying power survive.
Example: $DOGE coin.
"Doge has been around for years. Real community. Cultural value. That's not going away."
But the random dog coin from last week?
"Gone in 6 months."
What I Took From This
If you're holding meme coins, ask yourself:
Will people care about this in 2 years?Does it have real community beyond just pumping?Or is it pure hype?
If it's just hype, he's saying: take profits now.
I appreciated the honesty. No shilling. Just reality.
Regulation: The Fragmented Mess
CZ was asked about the state of crypto regulation globally.
His take: It's a mess. And it's getting worse.
The problem:
Every country has different rules.
What's legal in the U.S. is illegal in China.
What's allowed in Europe is banned in India.
What flies in Dubai gets you arrested in Nigeria.
The result?
Crypto companies are drowning in compliance costs.
"You need a different legal team for every jurisdiction. It's unsustainable."
The solution?
CZ advocates for "Regulatory Passporting" similar to the EU's MiCA framework.
"If you get licensed in one region, it should apply across multiple countries. Like the EU passport system."
Will it happen?
"It's the only realistic path forward. Otherwise, only giant companies can afford compliance. That kills innovation."
Binance's Future: Survival Over Growth
CZ stepped down as Binance CEO as part of the DOJ settlement.
New leadership. New structure. New phase.
What's Binance's strategy now?
"Survival over growth."
CZ was candid:
"The hyper-growth days are over. Now it's about compliance, stability, and surviving long-term."
Binance is transitioning from a "move fast and break things" startup to a traditional corporate structure.
Why?
Because global regulators demand it.
Does CZ support this?
Yes.
"Binance needs to mature. That means slower growth, but more stability. I'm okay with that."
He genuinely seems relieved to not be dealing with it anymore.
ETFs: The "Floor" That Changed Everything
One of CZ's most important points:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are preventing the 80% crashes of the past.
How?
"ETFs provide a floor. When price drops, institutions BUY. They don't panic sell like retail."
Historical crashes:
2018: -85% (from $20K to $3K)2022: -78% (from $69K to $15.5K)
Current crash:
2026: -46% (from $126K to $67K... so far)
The difference?
#ETFs .
"Institutions see $70K Bitcoin and think 'discount.' Retail sees it and thinks 'it's going to zero.'"
That behavioral difference creates a price floor.
The implication:
Bear markets might be shallower going forward.
Not 80% crashes. Maybe 50-60% max.
But they might also last longer.
Instead of a quick capitulation wick, we get a slow grind down as institutions accumulate.
What I'm Taking Away From All This
After listening to the full 90 minutes, here's what stuck with me:
1. The 2026 Supercycle Idea
CZ thinks the traditional 4-year cycle might break because:
ETFs provide a floorCountries are buyingRetail hasn't peaked yet
My take: Possible. But I'm not betting my whole portfolio on it. Cycles have a way of reasserting themselves.
2. Bitcoin to $200K
He's certain. "When, not if." 5-10 years.
My take: Seems reasonable long-term. Just don't expect it next month.
3. AI Agents + Crypto
AI needs crypto because they can't use banks.
My take: This is the idea I can't stop thinking about. If it plays out, it's a game-changer.
4. 90% of Meme Coins Die
Only ones with real culture survive.
My take: He's right. History will prove it.
5. ETFs Changed Everything
They prevent 80% crashes.
My take: Already seeing it. Current crash is 46%, not 80%.
6. He's Happier Now
"Grateful I don't run Binance anymore."
My take: Money isn't everything. Mental peace matters.
My Bottom Line
Honestly? This was one of the most refreshing crypto interviews I've heard in a while.
No hype. No shilling. Just a guy who's been through hell and come out with clarity.
His message:
Crypto's future is bright (institutions, AI, adoption)But it won't be a straight lineMost garbage will die (meme coins)Bitcoin will hit $200K eventually2026 might surprise us
Whether you agree or not, CZ's thought deeply about where this is all going.
And I think his insights are worth paying attention to.
If you listened to the podcast too what did you pick up?
Do you buy the supercycle thesis? And what about the AI + crypto idea? Let me know what you think.
$GHST had a strong pump, but now it’s clearly correcting.
On the 1H timeframe, it’s been breaking key support levels and forming lower highs, which shows sellers are in control for now.
Price is currently heading toward the 0.128 zone that’s the next level I’m watching.
If we get a clean reaction there, I’ll look for a possible entry. But no rush. I need proper confirmation first.
For now, momentum is still slightly bearish.
#GHST
On the 1H timeframe, it’s been breaking key support levels and forming lower highs, which shows sellers are in control for now.
Price is currently heading toward the 0.128 zone that’s the next level I’m watching.
If we get a clean reaction there, I’ll look for a possible entry. But no rush. I need proper confirmation first.
For now, momentum is still slightly bearish.
#GHST
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