Dom Nguyen - Dom Trading

🚨 IT’S ESCALATING: INSIDERS ARE DUMPING STOCK AT A 2021-LEVEL PACE

The selling pressure behind the scenes just intensified.
Over the last 24 hours:
Proposed sales: ~$36.3M
Actual sales: ~$53M
Total buys: ~$1.26M
That’s roughly $70 sold for every $1 bought.
This is the kind of imbalance we last saw near prior cycle highs.
When the people closest to the books are aggressively reducing exposure, it’s not random.
Where Selling Is Concentrated
Notable heavy insider selling in:
UWM Holdings Corporation (UWMC) ~ $9M
C3.ai (AI) ~ $6M
ON Semiconductor (ON) ~ $5.8M
Roku (ROKU) ~ $4.5M
That’s size. And it’s broad.
Insiders sell for many reasons — taxes, diversification, liquidity.
But they typically buy for only one reason: they believe shares are undervalued.
Right now, buying is almost nonexistent.
What This Means
This doesn’t guarantee an immediate crash.
But it does signal:
Elevated caution internally
Reduced conviction at current prices
Potential distribution into strength
Combine that with high index concentration and tightening liquidity conditions, and risk/reward shifts fast.
I’ll continue tracking filings as they hit.
When I make a material portfolio move, I’ll share it publicly.
Stay sharp.

🚨 WARNING: IF JAPAN HIKES TO 1.00%, GLOBAL LIQUIDITY COULD SNAP

According to Bank of America, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates to 1.00% in April.
Japan hasn’t seen 1.00% since the mid-1990s.
And if you think Japan doesn’t matter to global markets…
You’re underestimating one of the biggest liquidity engines in the world.
Why This Is a Big Deal
Japan isn’t just another economy.
It’s the world’s cheap funding hub.
For decades, ultra-low Japanese rates fueled global carry trades — borrowing in yen, investing in higher-yielding assets worldwide.
When Japan tightens, that trade unwinds.
And unwinds are not gentle.
The 1994–1995 Precedent
The last time Japan operated in this zone, the global system was already fragile.
In 1994, the bond market experienced the “Great Bond Massacre” — roughly $1.5 trillion in bond value was wiped out globally.
Then in early 1995, stress escalated.
On April 19, 1995, USD/JPY collapsed to ~79.75 — a historic low for the dollar.
Later that year?
Japan had to reverse course.
The BOJ cut its discount rate back down to 0.50% by September 1995.
That tells you something important:
When Japan tightens into a stressed system, it rarely stays contained.
Why It Matters Today
Japan holds roughly $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries.
That makes it one of the largest foreign creditors of the United States.
If domestic yields rise in Japan:
• Japanese capital has incentive to come home
• Global bond demand shifts
• Funding conditions tighten
• Carry trades unwind
This isn’t just about “rates going up.”
It’s about global liquidity plumbing.
Markets may not be pricing this risk right now.
But if tightening collides with a fragile macro setup, repricing can happen fast.
This is not panic.
It’s positioning awareness.
When a structural cheap-money anchor starts lifting rates, volatility tends to follow.
Stay alert.

🚨 CRITICAL WARNING: THE S&P 500 IS MORE CONCENTRATED THAN AT ANY TIME IN 60 YEARS

Wake up.
This hasn’t happened in over six decades.
Ignore it at your own risk.
The S&P 500 is hovering near all-time highs.
Sounds bullish.
But underneath the surface, the structure is flashing red.
After studying market structure for 20 years, I’ve never seen concentration like this.
Right now, index performance is being driven by a handful of mega-cap names — not the broader U.S. economy.
Here’s the breakdown:
Top 10 companies: ~38.74% of the entire index
Magnificent Seven: ~32.98% of the index
Remaining 493 companies: Fighting over what’s left
The last time the S&P was this top-heavy?
The mid-1960s.
For comparison:
• During the dot-com peak, the top 10 made up roughly 27–29%.
• During the Nifty Fifty era, concentration reached the mid-to-high 30% range.
We’re back at those extremes.
Let that sink in.
If just a few mega-cap names roll over, the entire index could drop sharply — even if the broader economy doesn’t collapse.
This is what structural fragility looks like.
Price is masking risk.
Until this divergence resolves, caution is warranted.
And I don’t expect it to resolve quickly — in fact, concentration could get even worse before it breaks.
For transparency, I’m still holding:
VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH)
Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE)
Nutrien (NTR)
These are multi-year positions.
My capital is rotating away from crowded tech exposure and toward energy and agriculture — sectors tied to tangible demand and hard assets.
Right now, the ice feels thin.
I’m not deploying size aggressively.
When that changes, I’ll say it publicly.
Stay alert.

🚨 MY NEW 7-FIGURE BET: THE MOST HATED SECTOR IN THE MARKET IS ABOUT TO SNAP

It’s a sector the market has completely ignored — yet the global economy literally collapses without it.
The anti-commodity narrative is breaking.
The era of “just own digital” is fading.
We’re rotating back to a world where real assets matter.
I’ve already explained why, at current ratios, I prefer oil companies over gold miners.
But energy isn’t the only deeply mispriced hard-asset play.
There’s another sector trading near historic pessimism.
Agriculture.
More specifically: the inputs required to feed a growing population on shrinking arable land.
I am heavily accumulating Nutrien (NTR) — essentially the Amazon of farming inputs.
At today’s valuation, the gap between share price and global food reality is absurd.
• Trading near a fraction of replacement value
• Priced as if a deep recession is coming
• While potash supply/demand dynamics are tightening for the first time in two years
The market is asleep.
Food security is not cyclical. It’s structural.
I feel significantly more comfortable owning the world’s largest crop nutrient producer than software stocks trading at 50x earnings with narrative risk.
Downside: Supported by tangible assets, cash flow, and hard inventory.
Upside: A violent re-rating once capital rotates back into real assets.
For transparency, I’m still holding:
• VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH)
• Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE)
Both up ~10% in the past 10 days.
I’m sharing this publicly because I believe this is the next major rotation.
No matter what happens with AI.
No matter what happens with tech multiples.
People need to eat.
This is not a 3-week trade.
This is a 2–3 year position.
As always, this isn’t financial advice — just transparency on how I’m allocating capital.
I’ve called major market inflection points over the last decade, and I’ll continue sharing my moves in real time.
Markets move fast.
Pay attention.

🚨 BREAKING: SATOSHI-ERA WHALE DUMPS 3,000 BTC AFTER 15 YEARS — IS A MAJOR TOP IN?

A Bitcoin OG just exited.
A Satoshi-era whale who had been accumulating since 2011 has officially sold all his holdings — unloading 3,000 $BTC, worth over $200 million.
Fifteen years of diamond hands… gone in one move.
This wasn’t a trader.
This wasn’t a short-term speculator.
This was early-cycle conviction capital.
When wallets from the 2011 era move, the market pays attention.
Early adopters typically sell for one of two reasons:
• They believe price is overheated
• They see structural risk ahead
• Or they simply think this is the optimal exit window
Large dormant wallets reactivating often precede volatility spikes. Liquidity thins. Sentiment shifts. Narratives change fast.
Is this distribution at the top?
Or just one whale taking profit after a 100,000%+ run?
Either way, $200M hitting the market from a Satoshi-era holder is not noise.
Watch order books. Watch funding rates. Watch ETF flows.
This could be nothing.
Or it could be the first crack.
Volatility incoming.

🚨 $3.2 TRILLION VANISHES IN 60 MINUTES — IS THE DE-DOLLARIZATION ERA OFFICIALLY DEAD?

Gold and silver are in freefall.
$3.2 trillion wiped out in just one hour.
Why?
Because the entire de-dollarization narrative may be collapsing in real time.
Russia is reportedly weighing a dramatic pivot back to the US Dollar — aiming to unlock a massive economic alignment with Trump.
Here’s what’s allegedly on the table:
Energy Power Play: A strategic bilateral grip over the global fossil fuel market.
LNG Expansion: Large-scale capital deployment into joint natural gas infrastructure.
Resource Leverage: Securing offshore energy assets and tightening control over critical mineral supply chains.
Commercial Edge: Preferential treatment for US corporate interests.
King Dollar Comeback: Russia sidelines BRICS and re-embraces the USD.
If this unfolds, it would signal a seismic shift in the global financial order — dismantling the de-dollarization momentum and reinforcing dollar dominance.
The financial architecture may be getting rewritten before our eyes.
Expect extreme volatility in the coming days.
I’ll continue tracking every development.
For those who’ve followed my calls over the past decade — you know how this plays out.
The next move is coming.

🚨 RED ALERT: INSIDERS ARE HITTING THE SELL BUTTON — HARD

Pull up the filings. It’s almost all red.
Last 7 days:
Sold: $11.6 BILLION
Bought: $59 MILLION
That’s not “normal profit taking.”
That’s a message.
And remember — that’s only what’s disclosed. The real repositioning? Likely far bigger behind the curtain.
When insiders sell at this scale, they’re not trimming.
They’re de-risking.
Look around:
Major banks reducing exposure.
Large institutions rotating capital.
Big names lightening positions.
This isn’t random. It’s coordinated caution.
Yes, price can bounce.
Yes, squeezes can happen.
But in this environment, strength can become exit liquidity.
The pattern is clear:
Protection > Performance.
That mindset doesn’t flip overnight. It can persist deep into 2026.
Simple takeaway:
When the people closest to the balance sheets are selling,
you don’t chase green candles.
You wait for real discounts.
And you avoid leverage when systemic risk is rising.
Ignore it if you want.
Just don’t say there weren’t signals.

🚨 SHOCK ALERT: FED SHUTDOWN BETS JUST SPIKED — NEXT MARKET CRASH MAY BE REAL

Prediction markets like Polymarket are now pricing a very high probability — around 70–95% — of another U.S. government shutdown by Feb. 14, 2026 due to stalled budget talks around DHS funding.
This isn’t political spin — it’s money on the line. Traders are aggressively betting that unless Congress reaches a deal, DHS and related agencies could lapse again.
And let’s be blunt — shutdowns do real economic harm in a short period: the early 2026 partial shutdown saw disruption to government services, adding uncertainty to markets and economic data.
Why it’s heating up:
The Minnesota immigration enforcement operation sparked intense political backlash, with Senate Democrats pushing to block DHS funding negotiations after fatal shootings involving federal agents, further complicating budget agreement talks. (Reddit)
DHS funding is the key fuse — if it lapses, the shutdown clock starts ticking quickly.

Shutdowns don’t just mean government workers stay home:
🔹 Paychecks get delayed
🔹 Contracting and approvals stall
🔹 Economic data releases slow down
🔹 Confidence in markets weakens
That’s why some analysts are warning markets will price this in abruptly, not gradually.
The federal immigration crackdown in Minnesota has now been announced as ending, but political fallout around DHS still influences funding negotiations.
Markets might still be underestimating this risk — but if another shutdown happens as prediction markets imply, volatility could spike before the headlines even catch up.

🚨 ALERT: AMERICA’S SOLO CRASH IS LOADING

The latest macro data wasn’t “mixed.”
It was ugly. And it exposed the one weakness almost nobody is pricing in.
This won’t be another 2008-style global domino collapse.
That playbook is outdated.
The real threat now? Sovereign insolvency — without a formal default.
Not missed payments.
But fiscal dominance:
Money printing.
Sticky inflation.
Financial repression.
Forced buyers of government debt.
If you’re waiting for a synchronized global meltdown, you’re watching the wrong movie.
Here’s the controversial part:
The global banking system is no longer tightly interconnected the way it was in 2008. It’s compartmentalized. Ring-fenced. Regionalized.
This time, the U.S. doesn’t drag the world down.
It sinks alone.
Why?
1️⃣ The U.S. is stuck in a sovereign debt spiral.
The Fed prints. The Treasury issues. The dollar absorbs the damage.
2️⃣ Basel III trapped capital inside borders.
A crisis in New York doesn’t automatically trigger forced selling in London.
3️⃣ Emerging markets trade with each other now.
The U.S. consumer is no longer the only growth engine.
4️⃣ The Fed stays “higher for longer” fighting stagflation.
Europe and China ease.
5️⃣ The toxic concentration?
U.S. commercial real estate.
U.S. Treasuries.
Held mostly by U.S. institutions.
Meanwhile, global capital is quietly reducing exposure.
That’s not a global depression.
That’s a localized one.
What invalidates this?
• A productivity boom that outruns interest costs.
• CRE stabilizing before the refinancing wall hits.
• A true 2008-style global contagion.
I’m watching all three.
This sets up a global capital rotation, not a global wipeout.
When U.S. risk gets contained, money doesn’t disappear.
It moves.
→ Commodities.
→ Real assets.
→ Undervalued non-U.S. equities.
The U.S. stagnates.
The rest accelerates.
You can ignore this.

🚨 ALTCOIN SEASON IS A LIQUIDITY TRAP — AND MOST PEOPLE WALK INTO IT WILLINGLY

Everyone romanticizes “Alt Season.”
Charts explode.
Twitter turns euphoric.
Random coins go 10x overnight.

But here’s the uncomfortable truth:
Altcoin season is often just a liquidity extraction phase.
How the Trap Works
1️⃣ Bitcoin rallies first.
2️⃣ Liquidity rotates into large caps.
3️⃣ Then into mid caps.
4️⃣ Finally into low caps and garbage.

By the time retail apes into micro caps,
smart money is already distributing.
The crowd sees “opportunity.”
The market sees exit liquidity.
Why It Feels So Real
Because some people do make life-changing money.
But most don’t.

They:
Buy breakouts late
Ignore token unlocks
Ignore liquidity depth
Confuse momentum with value
When the music stops, alts don’t correct gently.
They collapse 70–95%.
Every cycle proves it.
The Hidden Mechanic
Altcoins are not monetary assets.
They are high-beta liquidity instruments.

When:
Global liquidity expands → alts outperform
Liquidity tightens → alts implode
That’s it.
No conspiracy.
Just flows.
The Controversial Take
Alt season is not designed for you to win.

It’s designed to:
Distribute supply
Transfer risk
Reset positioning
If you understand that, you can still profit.
If you believe every rally is the start of a “new paradigm,”
you become the liquidity.
The difference between millionaire and bagholder
is not belief.
It’s timing.

🚨 IS SILVER ABOUT TO BREAK THE SYSTEM… OR IS THIS OVERHYPE?

Let’s talk calmly.
Yes, silver production is around 800M ounces per year.
Yes, futures open interest can total several billions of ounces.
But here’s what most people misunderstand:
Futures contracts ≠ physical shortage.
The paper market always represents more “ounces” than exist in vaults.
That’s how derivatives work. Positions offset. Not every contract demands delivery.
Now… does that mean nothing is happening?
No.

There are signs worth watching:
Violent intraday swings
Spiking lease rates
Occasional backwardation (spot > futures)
Tight physical premiums in some regions
That can signal short-term stress.
But jumping from that to “banks will collapse” is a massive leap.
Silver can absolutely rally hard.
It can squeeze overleveraged traders.
It can overshoot dramatically.
But systemic collapse requires funding stress and liquidity breakdown — not just high open interest.

Here’s the grounded take:
If real yields fall and the dollar weakens, silver likely runs.
If liquidity tightens and leverage unwinds, silver dumps.
It’s still a macro asset.
The opportunity might be real.
The panic narrative probably isn’t.
Stay rational. That’s where money is made.

🚨 IF YOU’RE NOT A MILLIONAIRE YET, READ THIS CAREFULLY

There’s about $1.1 quadrillion in global assets.
$1,100,000,000,000,000.
To make $1,000,000, you only need to capture a microscopic fraction of that.
The problem isn’t “there’s no money.”
The problem is positioning.
Most people say:
“I’m good at something, but I can’t monetize it.”
That’s usually an excuse.

Everything is monetizable if:
There’s demand
You can solve a problem
You can package it correctly
I met a guy whose passion is fishing.
He built custom lures.
Bad month? $30,000 revenue.
Not because he’s a genius.
Because he found:
The right niche
The right audience
The right offer
That’s it.

Step 1: Monetize your skill.
Step 2: Build cash flow.
Step 3: Invest intelligently when opportunity appears.
Now here’s where most people freeze.
Markets will dip again.
Especially tech and AI.
And when they do, people panic.
That’s backwards.

Crashes are uncomfortable —
but they’re where new millionaires are created.
If you’re scared during downturns,
you’re too exposed or underprepared.
Cash flow + patience + timing
is how you change your life.
I’ve studied markets for over 20 years.
The biggest wealth transfers don’t happen during euphoria.
They happen when fear peaks.
When the real bottom forms and I deploy serious capital,
I’ll say it publicly.
Opportunity doesn’t knock twice.
Position yourself before it does.

🚨 GOLD ISN’T RISING BECAUSE OF INFLATION — IT’S RISING BECAUSE TRUST IS DYING

Most people still think gold moves because of inflation.
That’s lazy thinking.
Gold doesn’t care about CPI headlines.
Gold cares about real yields and collapsing trust.

1️⃣ Inflation Is Not The Driver — REAL RATES ARE
If inflation goes up but rates go up faster, gold falls.
Why?
Because what matters is:
Real Yield = Nominal Yield – Inflation
When real yields turn negative, gold explodes.
Gold rallies when:
Governments can’t outpace inflation
Savers are punished
Debt becomes unpayable without currency debasement
This isn’t about “prices rising.”
It’s about money losing credibility.

2️⃣ The USD Myth
Yes, gold usually moves inverse to the dollar.
But here’s what most people ignore:
During real systemic stress,
gold and the dollar can rise together.
The dollar is short-term liquidity.
Gold is long-term safety.
One is transactional trust.
The other is structural distrust.
If gold is rallying aggressively while the system claims stability,
something underneath is cracking.

3️⃣ The Physical Demand Story They Downplay
Paper markets can suppress volatility.
Physical markets cannot be faked forever.
Right now:
Central banks are buying gold at record levels
BRICS nations are reducing Treasury exposure
Asian demand remains structurally strong
Governments don’t buy gold for yield.
They buy it when they don’t trust the future of fiat.
That’s not speculation.
That’s preparation.
The Controversial Take
Gold isn’t a hedge against inflation.
It’s a hedge against sovereign incompetence.

It rises when:
Debt spirals
Fiscal dominance kicks in
Central banks lose control of real rates
If gold is quietly climbing while politicians say everything is fine,
believe the metal, not the microphone.
Because gold doesn’t trade narratives.
It prices fear of the system itself.

🚨 BITCOIN IS NOT “DIGITAL GOLD” — IT’S EITHER THE NEXT SAFE HAVEN… OR A LIQUIDITY TRAP

For years, people repeated the same line:
“Bitcoin is digital gold.”
But let’s be honest.
In real stress, gold and Bitcoin don’t behave the same.
When liquidity cracks:
Gold often gets bought first.
Bitcoin gets sold first.
Why?

Because gold is collateral.
Bitcoin is leverage-sensitive.
That’s the uncomfortable truth most maxis won’t say out loud.
The Safe Haven Debate
A true safe haven does three things:
Holds value during systemic stress
Gains trust when currencies weaken
Trades independent of risk assets
Gold has done this for 5,000 years.
Bitcoin?
It’s only 15 years old.
And in every major liquidity event so far, Bitcoin has traded more like high-beta tech than gold.
That doesn’t make it bad.
It makes it different.
So What Is Bitcoin Then?
Bitcoin is not a crisis hedge in the short term.
It is a monetary hedge in the long term.

When:
Central banks print
Real yields go negative
Currency debasement accelerates
Bitcoin thrives.
Not because it’s “safe” —
but because it’s scarce and politically neutral.
Gold protects stability.
Bitcoin protects against monetary repression.
The Real Comparison Nobody Talks About
Gold:
Slow
Stable
Central bank owned
System-compatible
Bitcoin:
Volatile
Transparent supply
Borderless
System-disruptive
Governments hold gold.
Individuals hold Bitcoin.
That difference matters.
The 2026 Question
If we enter:
Sovereign debt stress
Currency devaluation
Fiscal dominance
Gold likely moves first.
Bitcoin likely overreacts down…
then rips harder once liquidity returns.
That’s the pattern.
Gold is the shield.
Bitcoin is the spear.
One preserves wealth.
The other multiplies it — but only if you survive the volatility.
My Controversial Take
Bitcoin is not replacing gold.
It’s competing with it.
And in a fragmented world where trust in fiat erodes, both can win — but for different reasons.
The mistake is expecting Bitcoin to behave like gold in every crisis.
It won’t.