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🚨 BTC WARNING — THE 4-YEAR CYCLE IS BACK 🚨
Bitcoin’s monthly chart is doing the same thing it has every single cycle.
No exceptions. No misses.
Since 2013, BTC always follows this pattern:
• 2 years of steady growth
• 1 year of explosive bull run
• 1 year of brutal bear market
The bull run peaked in October 2025.
That phase is over.
📉 We are now in the bear market, likely lasting until October 2026.
If history repeats:
BTC may chop around $80k first
Then slide toward ~$50k by October 2026
This is the only indicator that has never failed me.
Save this. I’ll revisit it in October 2026.
No exceptions. No misses.
Since 2013, BTC always follows this pattern:
• 2 years of steady growth
• 1 year of explosive bull run
• 1 year of brutal bear market
The bull run peaked in October 2025.
That phase is over.
📉 We are now in the bear market, likely lasting until October 2026.
If history repeats:
BTC may chop around $80k first
Then slide toward ~$50k by October 2026
This is the only indicator that has never failed me.
Save this. I’ll revisit it in October 2026.
🚨 Is Bitcoin Heading for a Brutal Drop to $45K?
Bitcoin is under pressure.
It’s currently trading around $68,600, down about 1.5% on the day. Price recently wicked as low as $59,800 before bouncing — but the structure still looks heavy.
A powerful long-term indicator called CVDD — which has identified major Bitcoin bottoms since 2012 — sits around $45,225.
That’s the level to watch.
Historically, when Bitcoin drops near this line, it marks deep bear market lows before major recoveries.
If price holds above the $60K region → short-term stability may continue.
If momentum fades and sellers push it lower → the path toward deeper correction opens, with $45K as the long-term structural floor.
$45K isn’t guaranteed.
But if tested, it would signal extreme market stress.
The battle isn’t over — and the chart is still fragile.
It’s currently trading around $68,600, down about 1.5% on the day. Price recently wicked as low as $59,800 before bouncing — but the structure still looks heavy.
A powerful long-term indicator called CVDD — which has identified major Bitcoin bottoms since 2012 — sits around $45,225.
That’s the level to watch.
Historically, when Bitcoin drops near this line, it marks deep bear market lows before major recoveries.
If price holds above the $60K region → short-term stability may continue.
If momentum fades and sellers push it lower → the path toward deeper correction opens, with $45K as the long-term structural floor.
$45K isn’t guaranteed.
But if tested, it would signal extreme market stress.
The battle isn’t over — and the chart is still fragile.
$ZEC – Lower highs, weak bounce.
Short $ZEC
Entry: 290–300
SL: 322
TP1: 260
TP2: 220
TP3: 185
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $ZEC here 👇
Short $ZEC
Entry: 290–300
SL: 322
TP1: 260
TP2: 220
TP3: 185
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $ZEC here 👇
$SUI – Holding the floor after aggressive selloff.
Long $SUI
Entry: 0.95 – 0.98
SL: 0.87
TP1: 1.05
TP2: 1.15
TP3: 1.30
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $SUI here 👇
Long $SUI
Entry: 0.95 – 0.98
SL: 0.87
TP1: 1.05
TP2: 1.15
TP3: 1.30
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $SUI here 👇
$SIREN – Blow-off top vibes. Momentum fading after the vertical spike.
Short $SIREN
Entry: 0.138 – 0.145
SL: 0.168
TP1: 0.120
TP2: 0.098
TP3: 0.072
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $SIREN here 👇
Short $SIREN
Entry: 0.138 – 0.145
SL: 0.168
TP1: 0.120
TP2: 0.098
TP3: 0.072
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $SIREN here 👇
$PENGU – Bounce into resistance, sellers still in control.
Short $PENGU
Entry: 0.0070 – 0.0072
SL: 0.0078
TP1: 0.0062
TP2: 0.0055
TP3: 0.0048
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $PENGU here 👇
Short $PENGU
Entry: 0.0070 – 0.0072
SL: 0.0078
TP1: 0.0062
TP2: 0.0055
TP3: 0.0048
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $PENGU here 👇
$AVAX – Bear trap or base forming.
Long $AVAX
Entry: 9.15 – 9.35
SL: 8.70
TP1: 9.85
TP2: 10.60
TP3: 11.80
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $AVAX here 👇
Long $AVAX
Entry: 9.15 – 9.35
SL: 8.70
TP1: 9.85
TP2: 10.60
TP3: 11.80
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $AVAX here 👇
$SPACE – Relief bounce into resistance.
Short $SPACE
Entry: 0.0085 – 0.0090
SL: 0.0105
TP1: 0.0070
TP2: 0.0055
TP3: 0.0042
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $SPACE here 👇
Short $SPACE
Entry: 0.0085 – 0.0090
SL: 0.0105
TP1: 0.0070
TP2: 0.0055
TP3: 0.0042
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $SPACE here 👇
$MYX – Dead cat bounce into supply.
Short $MYX
Entry: 1.85 – 1.95
SL: 2.30
TP1: 1.63
TP2: 1.40
TP3: 1.10
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $MYX here 👇
Short $MYX
Entry: 1.85 – 1.95
SL: 2.30
TP1: 1.63
TP2: 1.40
TP3: 1.10
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $MYX here 👇
$POWER – Parabolic spike into instant rejection.
Short $POWER
Entry: 0.195 – 0.205
SL: 0.235
TP1: 0.170
TP2: 0.150
TP3: 0.126
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $POWER here 👇
Short $POWER
Entry: 0.195 – 0.205
SL: 0.235
TP1: 0.170
TP2: 0.150
TP3: 0.126
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $POWER here 👇
$PLAY – Panic flush into support, looking for relief bounce.
Long $PLAY
Entry: 0.0255 – 0.0265
SL: 0.0230
TP1: 0.0300
TP2: 0.0340
TP3: 0.0390
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $PLAY here 👇
Long $PLAY
Entry: 0.0255 – 0.0265
SL: 0.0230
TP1: 0.0300
TP2: 0.0340
TP3: 0.0390
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $PLAY here 👇
$TAKE – Weak bounce after a brutal breakdown.
Short $TAKE
Entry: $0.034 – $0.036
SL: $0.040
TP1: $0.028
TP2: $0.022
TP3: $0.017
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $TAKE here 👇
Short $TAKE
Entry: $0.034 – $0.036
SL: $0.040
TP1: $0.028
TP2: $0.022
TP3: $0.017
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $TAKE here 👇
$XRP – Capitulation low, squeeze brewing.
Long $XRP
Entry: 1.50 – 1.58
SL: 1.42
TP1: 1.70
TP2: 1.95
TP3: 2.20
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $XRP here 👇
Long $XRP
Entry: 1.50 – 1.58
SL: 1.42
TP1: 1.70
TP2: 1.95
TP3: 2.20
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $XRP here 👇
$BNB – Weak bounce into supply, sellers still in control
Short $BNB
Entry: 625–635
SL: 660
TP1: 600
TP2: 572
TP3: 540
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $BNB here 👇
Short $BNB
Entry: 625–635
SL: 660
TP1: 600
TP2: 572
TP3: 540
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $BNB here 👇
$SOL – Holding the floor, eyeing the squeeze
Long $SOL
Entry: 88 – 90
SL: 82
TP1: 96
TP2: 105
TP3: 120
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $SOL here 👇
Long $SOL
Entry: 88 – 90
SL: 82
TP1: 96
TP2: 105
TP3: 120
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $SOL here 👇
$ETH – Flush, base, reclaim — squeeze setup.
Long $ETH
Entry: 2,030–2,080
SL: 1,970
TP1: 2,140
TP2: 2,220
TP3: 2,320
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $ETH here 👇
Long $ETH
Entry: 2,030–2,080
SL: 1,970
TP1: 2,140
TP2: 2,220
TP3: 2,320
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $ETH here 👇
$BTC – Relief bounce into resistance.
Short $BTC
Entry: 70,000 – 70,800
SL: 72,000
TP1: 67,500
TP2: 64,000
TP3: 60,000
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $BTC here 👇
Short $BTC
Entry: 70,000 – 70,800
SL: 72,000
TP1: 67,500
TP2: 64,000
TP3: 60,000
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $BTC here 👇
$DOGE – Dead cat bounce into supply. This is where traps get set.
Short $DOGE
Entry: 0.1145 – 0.1180
SL: 0.1235
TP1: 0.1050
TP2: 0.0950
TP3: 0.0800
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $DOGE here 👇
Short $DOGE
Entry: 0.1145 – 0.1180
SL: 0.1235
TP1: 0.1050
TP2: 0.0950
TP3: 0.0800
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $DOGE here 👇
$TAO – Relief bounce into supply.
Short $TAO
Entry: 186–192
SL: 210
TP1: 165
TP2: 142
TP3: 120
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $TAO here 👇
Short $TAO
Entry: 186–192
SL: 210
TP1: 165
TP2: 142
TP3: 120
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $TAO here 👇
$KITE – Breakout holding, continuation in play
Long $KITE
Entry: 0.215 – 0.222
SL: 0.188
TP1: 0.245
TP2: 0.275
TP3: 0.310
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $KITE here 👇
Long $KITE
Entry: 0.215 – 0.222
SL: 0.188
TP1: 0.245
TP2: 0.275
TP3: 0.310
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $KITE here 👇
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