Chamath Palihapitiya Channel

The radiant energy we receive from the sun serves as the fundamental foundation of all existence.

Consider the idea that artificial intelligence might not actually be required to deliver a rapid ROI for businesses. Rather than driving immediate financial returns, this technology could simply be providing companies with an effective layer of plausible deniability. Under the guise of technological advancement, organizations now have a convenient excuse to execute a RIF affecting 50% of the workforce, ultimately letting go of the exact employees management had already concluded were doing nothing.

Our cracked team just used Software Factory to rebuild and replace Jira in a little more than a month.

We first spent 3.5 weeks planning. This is Software Factory’s superpower.

It allowed our lead PM, Designer and Architect to thoughtfully describe and detail exactly what they wanted. Software Factory then did the heavy lifting in filling in the blanks and allowing our senior tech folks to sharpen the direction of what they wanted.

Then in 2.5 weeks 2.5 junior devs built a replacement.

This will launch as an updated Planner module inside of Software Factory on Tuesday.

It’s beautiful, clean and super useful.

Try it here:

A new @HooverInstitution study confirms what I’ve been saying for months.

The CA Billionaire Tax has a negative NPV of -$24.7B.

Meaning if this gets on the ballot and is approved in November, California doesn’t just collect less than promised, it actually LOSES money.

This was dreamed up by SEIU-UHW to solve a healthcare funding problem that should have been solved by our politicians reducing waste, fraud and abuse in our state budget. Of course they chose to do nothing.

Now it has blown up the state’s most reliable tax base. 71% of all 100,000 modeled scenarios = negative NPV and someone will have to pay for that -$24.7B hole. Who do you think California politicians will look to next?

There are ~10M middle-class California households. If you do the math, that’s ~$2,500 per family.

Not from billionaires. From YOU.

What’s most maddening is Governor Gavin Newsom could have killed this before it went anywhere but he didn’t.

He proves new all time highs for being incompetent and held captive. He now wants to do for America what he’s done for California.

Buyer beware…

After returning to my residence for a midday meal, I find myself unable to leave.

I would like to apologize to anyone who was misled by the rage bait. We implemented a strategic adjustment after Clawdbot flagged a 5% decline in follower growth relative to the counterfactual. I am happy to report that we have returned to our intended trajectory. I appreciate your attention to this update.

China is witnessing a sharp decline in its economic expansion. The CCP has officially set a growth goal ranging from 4.5% to 5%, which notably marks the lowest rate the country has anticipated in 30 years. Simultaneously, securing the physical resources necessary for sustainability has become increasingly difficult, particularly with major energy providers like Venezuela and Iran effectively removed from the equation. This environment creates a highly restricted range of strategic options for the upcoming years, specifically concerning matters involving Taiwan.

Whether you love it or hate it, the numbers don’t lie. If you don’t watch @theallinpod on the weekend, you will come to work on Monday missing what everyone is talking about.

I don’t make the rules.

It has been four years since I committed roughly ~$40M to support the development of Perimeter Medical, a small public company based in Canada. My motivation was grounded in their vision to create an AI-enabled device designed to improve cancer surgery outcomes. The goal was to allow physicians to remove a tumor, analyze it via AI directly in the operating theater, and determine with precision if the cancer was fully excised before closing the patient. If the system detected remaining cancer, the surgeon could immediately remove it rather than finishing the procedure prematurely.

I am thrilled to announce that we received FDA approval today. Our flagship product, Claire, is now distinguished as the first AI-enabled imaging device for breast cancer surgery to secure this authorization, alongside receiving Breakthrough Designation.

Under current standards, approximately ~20% of women require repeat operations because surgeons are unable to remove the entire tumor initially. Making matters worse, these patients often endure a stressful 10-day waiting period for pathology reviews to confirm the results of the resected tumor. By utilizing real-time AI and OCT technology, Claire provides 10x the resolution of standard X-rays. This allows surgeons to spot suspicious tissue during the procedure and act instantly.

Claire is now a regulated tool embedded in the real-time surgical workflow, marking just the beginning of what this platform can achieve in cancer care. We intend to concentrate initially on the ~300,000 breast cancer surgeries that occur annually in the U.S. before expanding our scope to other solid tumors over time.

From a systemic viewpoint, this is the epitome of real AI. It remains invisible to the patient yet becomes indispensable to the clinician, with success measured by fewer surgeries and a better treatment experience.

Congratulations to @adrianvmendes and the @perimetermed team.

It has become increasingly clear that @RoKhanna, the Democratic congressman currently representing Silicon Valley, lacks the innovative, creative, and entrepreneurial spirit that defines our region. In fact, he seems to represent the antithesis of these values.

Consider his stance on taxation. He supports what acts as a California Property Seizure tax, although he refers to it as a Billionaire Tax. This policy has already resulted in the departure of half of the billionaire wealth from California, leaving the middle class responsible for making up the revenue shortfall. Not content with this, he aligned himself with Bernie Sanders to advocate for an additional national 5% wealth tax to fund unspecified projects.

There is also a stark contrast between his public signals regarding inequality and his private actions. He stands out as one of the most frequent stock traders in Congress. Just last year, his trading volume reached $55.7m. Aided by the knowledge acquired through his position, he managed to beat the market performance by 13%.

Ultimately, ambition appears to be his guiding principle. He seems willing to jump from one ill-advised concept to another if it benefits his political career. Right now, that strategy involves posturing as a quasi socialist to gain approval from the extreme left faction of his party. He is ill-suited to represent Silicon Valley, and I sincerely hope he faces a significant loss in his re-election bid.

Since 2011, the State of California has been under the complete direction of one party from top to bottom. The results associated with this leadership are hard to explain away. Currently, the state maintains the highest energy costs as well as the highest state income tax. Additionally, California reports the highest rates of unemployment, poverty, and homelessness.

Living in a democratic society guarantees that creators have every right to dictate the terms under which their products are utilized and by whom. Conversely, it is entirely appropriate for government entities to withdraw their confidence, reject those providers, and seek out different solutions. Unfortunately, exercising these rights can sometimes lead a business to dismantle its own success. This development comes at a particularly difficult moment for Anthropic, and it may unintentionally benefit competitors like Grok, OAI, and Gemini, all of whom are preparing to release new versions that are already surpassing performance predictions.

Looking at the broader implications, this scenario appears to be a slippery slope. We must consider the consequences if a developer changes their Terms of Service to prohibit use cases that are legally valid but subjectively controversial. This becomes even more complex when laws differ between states or when navigating the varied religious and political landscapes of different countries. It introduces a massive array of complications.

It is unreasonable to expect a government agency or a private corporation to depend on a model where the standards of acceptable use are constantly shifting. Doing so would necessitate accepting an unmanageable level of governance and operational liability. Consequently, these institutions will simply choose not to participate. My suspicion is that market leadership will ultimately belong to the company that adopts a "no holds barred" approach to its terms. This strategy represents the safest bet for users, as it mitigates the long-term risk of having the rug pulled out from under them due to sudden policy changes.

Within a democratic system, creators are entirely within their rights to stipulate exactly who may utilize their products and in what manner. Conversely, it is equally valid for the Government to conclude that such restrictions erode trust, prompting them to sever ties and seek solutions elsewhere.

That said, the current timing presents a significant challenge for Anthropic. This situation creates an opportunity that could heavily favor competitors such as Grok, OAI, and Gemini, particularly as their upcoming releases are already performing better than anticipated.

Looking at the bigger picture, this establishes a precarious precedent. It prompts concerns regarding what might occur if a developer alters their Terms of Service to prohibit use cases that are legally permissible yet subjectively controversial. These rules might be acceptable in certain states while conflicting with the laws, governance structures, or religious norms of other nations. Essentially, this introduces a chaotic array of complications.

It is difficult to imagine how a government agency or corporation could place their confidence in a model where the permissible use standards are in a state of flux. The exposure to business and governance liabilities would be substantial, leading these entities to avoid such platforms.

Ultimately, I suspect that the winning strategy will come from the company that adopts a completely unrestricted Terms of Service policy. Such an approach offers the highest level of security against the long-term risk of sudden policy reversals or service denial.

The market is currently experiencing a significant shift in how public companies are being repriced due to AI. In my view, we have moved beyond debating when future cash flows might degrade—whether that happens in 10 years or 20 years. Instead, the central question has become if those future revenues and RPO possess any value at all. Whenever investors start asking if a company has a future rather than when it will decline, the most prudent strategy is to build in a massive margin of safety. This results in re-rating P/Es and revenue multiples lower, while adjusting WACCs higher.

This phase shift is critical and is unfolding right now. For companies situated directly in the path of this repricing, the consequences could be severe, with valuations potentially compressing to levels approaching 1-3x free cash flow. Such a valuation collapse will fundamentally alter how these organizations approach Stock Based Comp. They will likely be forced to drastically cut it due to its substantial impact on cash flow. Unfortunately, this triggers a reflexive loop where reduced compensation hurts employee retention, which in turn hampers subsequent growth, revenues, and profits.

You should expect to see continued downward pressure. For those looking to track the magnitude of this repricing, the easiest method is to observe the spread between the equal weight S&P index and the index itself. Good luck to all the players involved.

If…Not…When

In my opinion, the current AI repricing of public companies is a process of asking “if” any future cash flows are safe. We used to debate “when” those cash flows would degrade - in 10 years? 20 years?

Now the question is if these future revenues and RPO have ANY value.

When you start to ask “if” questions about a company’s future, the safest thing to do is to re-rate their P/Es, rev multiple and WACCs to such a small number that it embeds the holder with a massive margin is safety.

This phase shift is very important and is what is currently happening.

The downside of this repricing is that companies that are directly in the bullseye of the repricing could see valuations that approach 1-3x free cash flow.

This will then dramatically change how these companies will deal with Stock Based Comp (they will drastically cut it) because it has a huge impact to cashflow. This will then impact their employee retention and subsequent growth, revenues and profits. So it’s a reflexive loop.

Expect more downward pressure.

Watching the spread between the equal weight S&P index and the index itself is probably the simplest way to measure the degree of the repricing.

Good luck to all the players!

An overheard remark suggests that the Democrats are portraying themselves as either incompetent or corrupt, largely due to their perceived insincerity.

If you are looking for the most significant visualization regarding the energy sector today, consider this: in 2025 alone, China deployed a volume of solar capacity greater than the cumulative total installed by America throughout its history.

Additionally, 2025 marked a global milestone as the first year where capital flows into small-scale distributed solar overtook investments in utility-scale solar farms.

When you combine these factors with the reality that hundreds of GW remain trapped in the U.S. grid interconnection queue, the environment is perfectly primed to equip every American home with solar + storage.

For those interested in the complete details, my research team has assembled a comprehensive Deep Dive on solar.

Access the link below:

California currently stands as a study in contrasts. On one hand, the state is home to an exceptionally bright and skilled population that has successfully constructed the fourth-largest economy in the world. However, there is a conflicting reality where this same intelligent demographic seems to disengage when it comes to civic duty. For decades, voters have consistently elected politicians who have proven to be corrupt and incompetent, effectively allowing the state's governance to be hijacked.

As a result, California's livability, financial health, and pension stability are eroding daily. The symptoms of this decline are visible everywhere: fire hydrants lack water, those suffering from addiction are provided with free drugs and beer, and criminals appear to face no consequences, effectively receiving a pass to leave jail. Academically, student grades are plummeting. In the housing sector, while it is impossible to construct homes for average citizens, taxpayers are forced to fund purported housing projects for the homeless. Additionally, healthcare subsidies are expanded only for illegal immigrants, and the looming crisis regarding pensions is concealed by altering reporting methods to hide the true financial liability.

The ordinary citizens responsible for California's greatness must acknowledge that their own apathy has fueled this chaotic environment. It is essential to alter our course immediately to undo these developments.

Community resistance halted 25 data center initiatives in 2025, a sharp rise compared to the 6 cancellations in 2024 and only 2 in 2023. This pushback crosses political lines, with bipartisan agreement driven largely by a single factor: the increasing burden of electricity prices on local residents.

During Q2 2025 alone, delays or blocks affected 20 projects, placing potential investments worth $98B in jeopardy. The cancellations throughout 2025 account for a loss of approximately 4.7 gigawatts in electricity capacity. Based on OpenAI estimates regarding revenue per gigawatt, which sits at roughly $10B, these scrapped plans equate to nearly $50B in forgone AI revenue for the year. When we apply a 20x earnings multiple to that figure, the result is a massive $1 trillion reduction in enterprise value in just one year.

The outlook remains challenging. At least 99 data center proposals are currently being contested across the country. History indicates that around 40% of projects facing such sustained opposition eventually fail. Consequently, we risk losing many more gigawatts, billions in revenue, and trillions in enterprise value if the current trajectory continues.

At its heart, the issue stems from expecting local populations to subsidize AI infrastructure through inflated power bills without receiving any corresponding benefits. This is not a sustainable model. Until the issue of electricity costs is effectively addressed, community opposition will persist as a systemic and undervalued risk to the AI industry and the general economy.

I am excited to introduce my new YouTube channel, where I will be discussing business anecdotes, sharing key takeaways from my experiences, and diving into major topics that I am currently studying. I would love to hear your input on the content.

https://youtu.be/0-LAT4HjWPo