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XRP has remained under pressure amid a broader crypto market pullback. The token continues to trade below a persistent downtrend line that began at the start of the year. Multiple breakout attempts have failed, reinforcing bearish control in the short term.

Despite the ongoing decline, historical patterns suggest this phase may precede a recovery rally. Similar technical setups have marked turning points in the past. Notably, July 2024.

XRP Could See Its History Repeated

The Market Value to Realized Value, or MVRV, Extreme Values indicator shows XRP has traded below the 1.0 threshold for an extended period. An MVRV ratio under 1.0 often signals that the asset is undervalued relative to its historical cost basis. This condition can reflect capitulation among short-term holders.

Green bars within the MVRV model indicate XRP is “getting low,” suggesting a potential bottom formation. Historically, such readings have occurred after MVRV remained below 1.0 for roughly 15% of trading days. These periods have often aligned with reversal stages rather than prolonged declines.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

XRP MVRV Ratio Extreme Values. Source: Glassnode

A similar setup emerged in July 2024. Shortly after comparable MVRV readings, XRP surged 51% within days. While past performance does not guarantee future results, the data suggests XRP may be nearing a recovery phase if historical tendencies repeat.

On-chain metrics offer additional insight into shifting investor behavior. The number of addresses holding at least 10,000 XRP has begun to stabilize after a notable decline. This cohort represents mid-sized holders rather than large whales.

The recent uptick follows the largest drop in such addresses since December 2020. Historically, renewed participation from these holders comes after accumulation by larger XRP investors. Rising conviction among smaller participants often reflects a cascading improvement in confidence in price stability and potential upside from top holders.

XRP Holders. Source: Glassnode XRP Price Aims At Ending Downtrend 

XRP is trading at $1.42 at the time of writing, holding above the critical $1.36 support level. Maintaining this base is essential for preserving near-term bullish prospects. However, the asset remains capped beneath a descending trendline that has rejected price advances three times this year.

While improving MVRV readings and addressing growth support a constructive outlook, confirmation remains pending. A decisive move above $1.57 would be required to validate a breakout. Flipping this level into support would clear the $1.50 resistance and break the established downtrend structure. Such a shift could open a path toward $1.91, marking a significant recovery extension.

XRP Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

If bullish momentum weakens, XRP may continue consolidating within its current range. A breakdown below $1.36 would shift the structure bearish. In that scenario, downside risk could extend toward $1.11, invalidating the recovery thesis and reinforcing selling pressure in the broader XRP price trend.

Washington erupted in political crossfire Friday after the Supreme Court of the United States struck down President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs.

The ruling triggered sharp partisan reactions and exposed a widening divide over trade, executive power, and the country’s economic future.

Partisan Firestorm Erupts as Lawmakers Clash Over Trade, Power, and $150 Billion in Tariffs

In a 6–3 decision, the Court ruled that Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) when he imposed broad “reciprocal” tariffs in 2025 without clear authorization from Congress.

The ruling invalidates most of those global duties, marking a major setback for a signature pillar of Trump’s second-term economic agenda.

Just like how stock and crypto markets reacted, the political reaction was immediate — and explosive.

Democrats Declare Victory

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer framed the ruling as a consumer win.

“This is a win for the wallets of every American consumer. Trump’s chaotic and illegal tariff tax made life more expensive and our economy more unstable.”

He added:

“Trump’s illegal tariff tax just collapsed — He tried to govern by decree and stuck families with the bill. Enough chaos. End the trade war.”

Similarly, Senator Elizabeth Warren emphasized the financial toll on households and small businesses.

“No Supreme Court decision can undo the massive damage that Trump’s chaotic tariffs have caused. The American people paid for these tariffs, and the American people should get their money back,” she stated.

In a broader statement, Warren argued that any refunds stemming from the ruling “should end up in the pockets of the millions of Americans and small businesses that were illegally cheated out of their hard-earned money.”

House Budget Committee Ranking Member Brendan Boyle echoed the sentiment:

“This ruling is a victory for every American family paying higher prices because of Trump’s tariff taxes. The Supreme Court rejected Trump’s attempt to impose what amounted to a national sales tax on hardworking Americans.”

Republicans Split Over Executive Power

Republican reaction, however, revealed a party divided between constitutional purists and economic nationalists.

Senator Rand Paul praised the decision as a safeguard against executive overreach.

“In defense of our Republic, the Supreme Court struck down using emergency powers to enact taxes. This ruling will also prevent a future President such as AOC from using emergency powers to enact socialism,” he said.

But Senator Bernie Moreno sharply condemned the Court’s move:

“SCOTUS’s outrageous ruling handcuffs our fight against unfair trade that has devastated American workers for decades. These tariffs protected jobs, revived manufacturing, and forced cheaters like China to pay up,” he noted.

Moreno warned that “globalists win” under the ruling and called for Republicans to codify the tariffs through reconciliation legislation.

Trump Fires Back

Trump himself reportedly responded with a single word during a White House breakfast with governors:

“Disgrace.”

The US President also signaled that his administration has a “backup plan,” hinting at possible efforts to reimpose tariffs through alternative legal authorities such as Section 301 or Section 232.

A Constitutional and Economic Flashpoint

Beyond the immediate political theater, the decision represents a rare rebuke of executive trade authority from a conservative-majority Court.

The ruling reinforces Congress’s constitutional control over taxation and trade regulation, limiting the scope of emergency economic powers under IEEPA.

At the same time, it raises practical questions about potentially billions in tariff refunds and whether lawmakers will attempt to restore elements of Trump’s trade policy through new legislation.

What began as a legal battle over tariffs has evolved into a broader confrontation over presidential power, economic nationalism, and who ultimately controls America’s trade agenda.

“The Supreme Court got it right. But they also did Trump a huge favor, as his tariffs are harming the U.S. economy and are paid by Americans. But since the tariff revenue will now stop and past revenue must be returned, the already rising U.S. budget deficit will soar. Got gold?” Peter Schiff quipped.

The fight is far from over.

AI agents dominated ETHDenver 2026, from autonomous finance to on-chain robotics. But as enthusiasm around “agentic economies” builds, a harder question is emerging: can institutions prove what their AI systems were trained on?

Among the startups targeting that problem is Perle Labs, which argues that AI systems require a verifiable chain of custody for their training data, particularly in regulated and high-risk environments. With a focus on building an auditable, credentialed data infrastructure for institutions, Perle has raised $17.5 million to date, with its latest funding round led by Framework Ventures. Other investors include CoinFund, Protagonist, HashKey, and Peer VC. The company reports more than one million annotators contributing over a billion scored data points on its platform.

BeInCrypto spoke with Ahmed Rashad, CEO of Perle Labs, on the sidelines of ETHDenver 2026. Rashad previously held an operational leadership role at Scale AI during its hypergrowth phase. In the conversation, he discussed data provenance, model collapse, adversarial risks and why he believes sovereign intelligence will become a prerequisite for deploying AI in critical systems.

BeInCrypto: You describe Perle Labs as the “sovereign intelligence layer for AI.” For readers who are not inside the data infrastructure debate, what does that actually mean in practical terms?

Ahmed Rashad: “The word sovereign is deliberate, and it carries a few layers.

The most literal meaning is control. If you’re a government, a hospital, a defense contractor, or a large enterprise deploying AI in a high-stakes environment, you need to own the intelligence behind that system, not outsource it to a black box you can’t inspect or audit. Sovereign means you know what your AI was trained on, who validated it, and you can prove it. Most of the industry today cannot say that.

The second meaning is independence. Acting without outside interference. This is exactly what institutions like the DoD, or an enterprise require when they’re deploying AI in sensitive environments. You cannot have your critical AI infrastructure dependent on data pipelines you don’t control, can’t verify, and can’t defend against tampering. That’s not a theoretical risk. NSA and CISA have both issued operational guidance on data supply chain vulnerabilities as a national security issue.

The third meaning is accountability. When AI moves from generating content into making decisions, medical, financial, military, someone has to be able to answer: where did the intelligence come from? Who verified it? Is that record permanent? On Perle, our goal is to have every contribution from every expert annotator is recorded on-chain. It can’t be rewritten. That immutability is what makes the word sovereign accurate rather than just aspirational.

In practical terms, we are building a verification and credentialing layer. If a hospital deploys an AI diagnostic system, it should be able to trace each data point in the training set back to a credentialed professional who validated it. That is sovereign intelligence. That’s what we mean.” 

BeInCrypto: You were part of Scale AI during its hypergrowth phase, including major defense contracts and the Meta investment. What did that experience teach you about where traditional AI data pipelines break?

Ahmed Rashad: “Scale was an incredible company. I was there during the period when it went from $90M and now it’s $29B, all of that was taking shape, and I had a front-row seat to where the cracks form.

The fundamental problem is that data quality and scale pull in opposite directions. When you’re growing 100x, the pressure is always to move fast: more data, faster annotation, lower cost per label. And the casualties are precision and accountability. You end up with opaque pipelines: you know roughly what went in, you have some quality metrics on what came out, but the middle is a black box. Who validated this? Were they actually qualified? Was the annotation consistent? Those questions become almost impossible to answer at scale with traditional models.

The second thing I learned is that the human element is almost always treated as a cost to be minimized rather than a capability to be developed. The transactional model: pay per task then optimize for throughput just degrades quality over time. It burns through the best contributors. The people who can give you genuinely high-quality, expert-level annotations are not the same people who will sit through a gamified micro-task system for pennies. You have to build differently if you want that caliber of input.

That realization is what Perle is built on. The data problem isn’t solved by throwing more labor at it. It’s solved by treating contributors as professionals, building verifiable credentialing into the system, and making the entire process auditable end to end.”

BeInCrypto: You’ve reached a million annotators and scored over a billion data points. Most data labeling platforms rely on anonymous crowd labor. What’s structurally different about your reputation model?

Ahmed Rashad: “The core difference is that on Perle, your work history is yours, and it’s permanent. When you complete a task, the record of that contribution, the quality tier it hit, how it compared to expert consensus, is written on-chain. It can’t be edited, can’t be deleted, can’t be reassigned. Over time, that becomes a professional credential that compounds.

Compare that to anonymous crowd labor, where a person is essentially fungible. They have no stake in quality because their reputation doesn’t exist, each task is disconnected from the last. The incentive structure produces exactly what you’d expect: minimum viable effort.

Our model inverts that. Contributors build verifiable track records. The platform recognizes domain expertise. For example, a radiologist who consistently produces high-quality medical image annotations builds a profile that reflects that. That reputation drives access to higher-value tasks, better compensation, and more meaningful work. It’s a flywheel: quality compounds because the incentives reward it.

We’ve crossed a billion points scored across our annotator network. That’s not just a volume number, it’s a billion traceable, attributed data contributions from verified humans. That’s the foundation of trustworthy AI training data, and it’s structurally impossible to replicate with anonymous crowd labor.”

BeInCrypto: Model collapse gets discussed a lot in research circles but rarely makes it into mainstream AI conversations. Why do you think that is, and should more people be worried?

Ahmed Rashad: “It doesn’t make mainstream conversations because it’s a slow-moving crisis, not a dramatic one. Model collapse, where AI systems trained increasingly on AI-generated data start to degrade, lose nuance, and compress toward the mean, doesn’t produce a headline event. It produces a gradual erosion of quality that’s easy to miss until it’s severe.

The mechanism is straightforward: the internet is filling up with AI-generated content. Models trained on that content are learning from their own outputs rather than genuine human knowledge and experience. Each generation of training amplifies the distortions of the last. It’s a feedback loop with no natural correction.

Should more people be worried? Yes, particularly in high-stakes domains. When model collapse affects a content recommendation algorithm, you get worse recommendations. When it affects a medical diagnostic model, a legal reasoning system, or a defense intelligence tool, the consequences are categorically different. The margin for degradation disappears.

This is why the human-verified data layer isn’t optional as AI moves into critical infrastructure. You need a continuous source of genuine, diverse human intelligence to train against; not AI outputs laundered through another model. We have over a million annotators representing genuine domain expertise across dozens of fields. That diversity is the antidote to model collapse. You can’t fix it with synthetic data or more compute.”

BeInCrypto: When AI expands from digital environments into physical systems, what fundamentally changes about risk, responsibility, and the standards applied to its development?

Ahmed Rashad: The irreversibility changes. That’s the core of it. A language model that hallucinates produces a wrong answer. You can correct it, flag it, move on. A robotic surgical system operating on a wrong inference, an autonomous vehicle making a bad classification, a drone acting on a misidentified target, those errors don’t have undo buttons. The cost of failure shifts from embarrassing to catastrophic.

That changes everything about what standards should apply. In digital environments, AI development has largely been allowed to move fast and self-correct. In physical systems, that model is untenable. You need the training data behind these systems to be verified before deployment, not audited after an incident.

It also changes accountability. In a digital context, it’s relatively easy to diffuse responsibility, was it the model? The data? The deployment? In physical systems, particularly where humans are harmed, regulators and courts will demand clear answers. Who trained this? On what data? Who validated that data and under what standards? The companies and governments that can answer those questions will be the ones allowed to operate. The ones that can’t will face liability they didn’t anticipate.

We built Perle for exactly this transition. Human-verified, expert-sourced, on-chain auditable. When AI starts operating in warehouses, operating rooms, and on the battlefield, the intelligence layer underneath it needs to meet a different standard. That standard is what we’re building toward.

BeInCrypto: How real is the threat of data poisoning or adversarial manipulation in AI systems today, particularly at the national level?

Ahmed Rashad: “It’s real, it’s documented, and it’s already being treated as a national security priority by people who have access to classified information about it.

DARPA’s GARD program (Guaranteeing AI Robustness Against Deception) spent years specifically developing defenses against adversarial attacks on AI systems, including data poisoning. The NSA and CISA issued joint guidance in 2025 explicitly warning that data supply chain vulnerabilities and maliciously modified training data represent credible threats to AI system integrity. These aren’t theoretical white papers. They’re operational guidance from agencies that don’t publish warnings about hypothetical risks.

The attack surface is significant. If you can compromise the training data of an AI system used for threat detection, medical diagnosis, or logistics optimization, you don’t need to hack the system itself. You’ve already shaped how it sees the world. That’s a much more elegant and harder-to-detect attack vector than traditional cybersecurity intrusions.

The $300 million contract Scale AI holds with the Department of Defense’s CDAO, to deploy AI on classified networks, exists in part because the government understands it cannot use AI trained on unverified public data in sensitive environments. The data provenance question is not academic at that level. It’s operational.

What’s missing from the mainstream conversation is that this isn’t just a government problem. Any enterprise deploying AI in a competitive environment, financial services, pharmaceuticals, critical infrastructure, has an adversarial data exposure they’ve probably not fully mapped. The threat is real. The defenses are still being built.”

BeInCrypto: Why can’t a government or a large enterprise just build this verification layer themselves? What’s the real answer when someone pushes back on that?

Ahmed Rashad: “Some try. And the ones who try learn quickly what the actual problem is.

Building the technology is the easy part. The hard part is the network. Verified, credentialed domain experts, radiologists, linguists, legal specialists, engineers, scientists, don’t just appear because you built a platform for them. You have to recruit them, credential them, build the incentive structures that keep them engaged, and develop the quality consensus mechanisms that make their contributions meaningful at scale. That takes years and it requires expertise that most government agencies and enterprises simply don’t have in-house.

The second problem is diversity. A government agency building its own verification layer will, by definition, draw from a limited and relatively homogeneous pool. The value of a global expert network isn’t just credentialing; it’s the range of perspective, language, cultural context, and domain specialization that you can only get by operating at real scale across real geographies. We have over a million annotators. That’s not something you replicate internally.

The third problem is incentive design. Keeping high-quality contributors engaged over time requires transparent, fair, programmable compensation. Blockchain infrastructure makes that possible in a way that internal systems typically can’t replicate: immutable contribution records, direct attribution, and verifiable payment. A government procurement system is not built to do that efficiently.

The honest answer to the pushback is: you’re not just buying a tool. You’re accessing a network and a credentialing system that took years to build. The alternative isn’t ‘build it yourself’, it’s ‘use what already exists or accept the data quality risk that comes with not having it.’”

BeInCrypto: If AI becomes core national infrastructure, where does a sovereign intelligence layer sit in that stack five years from now?

Ahmed Rashad: “Five years from now, I think it looks like what the financial audit function looks like today, a non-negotiable layer of verification that sits between data and deployment, with regulatory backing and professional standards attached to it.

Right now, AI development operates without anything equivalent to financial auditing. Companies self-report on their training data. There’s no independent verification, no professional credentialing of the process, no third-party attestation that the intelligence behind a model meets a defined standard. We’re in the early equivalent of pre-Sarbanes-Oxley finance, operating largely on trust and self-certification.

As AI becomes critical infrastructure, running power grids, healthcare systems, financial markets, defense networks, that model becomes untenable. Governments will mandate auditability. Procurement processes will require verified data provenance as a condition of contract. Liability frameworks will attach consequences to failures that could have been prevented by proper verification.

Where Perle sits in that stack is as the verification and credentialing layer, the entity that can produce an immutable, auditable record of what a model was trained on, by whom, under what standards. That’s not a feature of AI development five years from now. It’s a prerequisite.

The broader point is that sovereign intelligence isn’t a niche concern for defense contractors. It’s the foundation that makes AI deployable in any context where failure has real consequences. And as AI expands into more of those contexts, the foundation becomes the most valuable part of the stack.”

US financial markets and cryptocurrencies moved higher after the Supreme Court struck down former President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, removing a major source of economic uncertainty.

The court ruled that Trump exceeded his authority by using emergency powers to impose broad tariffs without approval from Congress. The decision limits the president’s ability to reshape trade policy unilaterally and restores Congress as the primary authority over tariffs. 

Supreme Court Restores Congress’s Control Over Tariffs

The ruling immediately reshapes the balance of power in US economic policymaking.

The tariffs, imposed under emergency authority, had targeted imports from multiple countries and generated billions in revenue. 

Businesses and trade groups challenged the measures, arguing they raised costs and disrupted supply chains. The Supreme Court’s decision now blocks similar tariffs unless Congress explicitly approves them.

Stocks and Crypto Rise as Trade Uncertainty Eases

Markets reacted quickly.

The S&P 500 rose about 0.40%, while the Nasdaq gained roughly 0.70%, signaling renewed investor confidence. Technology stocks led gains, reflecting improved expectations for economic growth and stability. 

S&P 500 Surges After Supreme Court Announcement. Source: Google Finance

Meanwhile, the global crypto market cap climbed to about $2.38 trillion, with Bitcoin trading near $67,000 after recent volatility.

Gold briefly dipped following the decision before recovering, reflecting a shift in risk sentiment.

The market reaction reflects a key shift: reduced trade uncertainty. Tariffs often act like taxes on imports, raising prices and slowing economic activity. 

Gold Becomes Extremely Volatile. Source: TradingView

Removing the threat of broad tariffs lowers inflation risks and improves liquidity expectations, both of which support risk assets.

This is particularly relevant for crypto.

Crypto Markets Turn Green. Source: CoinGecko

Bitcoin and other digital assets are highly sensitive to global liquidity and investor confidence. When macroeconomic uncertainty declines, capital tends to flow back into riskier assets. 

The recovery in crypto alongside stocks suggests investors are regaining confidence after weeks of geopolitical and economic stress.

However, the decision also highlights deeper political tensions. The ruling limits presidential authority and reinforces Congress’s constitutional control over tariffs. This could slow future trade actions but also reduce sudden policy shocks that destabilize markets.

For crypto markets, stability in global trade and economic policy is generally positive. While geopolitical risks remain, the Supreme Court’s decision removes one major macro threat.

In the near term, that shift appears to be supporting Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market.

In a landmark 6–3 decision, the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled that President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs were illegal, delivering a sharp blow to one of the White House’s core economic policies.

The decision immediately lifted risk appetite across financial markets, including crypto, though traders remain cautious about what comes next.

Supreme Court Overturns Trump’s Global Tariffs, Triggering Market Relief Rally and Crypto Volatility

Chief Justice John Roberts authored the majority opinion, joined by Justices Amy Coney Barrett, Neil Gorsuch, Ketanji Brown Jackson, Elena Kagan, and Sonia Sotomayor. The dissent came from Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Brett Kavanaugh.

“A victory for the wallets of every American consumer. Trump’s illegal tariff tax just collapsed—He tried to govern by decree and stuck families with the bill. Enough chaos. End the trade war,” commented Chuck Schumer, New York’s Senator and the Senate Democratic Leader.

At issue was Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad “reciprocal” tariffs in 2025 on imports from China, Canada, Mexico, the European Union, Japan, and South Korea.

The Court held that IEEPA, a statute designed for national emergencies, does not grant the president unilateral authority to enact sweeping trade tariffs.

Based on this, the court ruled that such powers fall squarely under Congress’s constitutional authority over taxation and trade regulation.

The majority leaned on the “major questions doctrine,” arguing that actions of vast economic and political significance require clear congressional authorization.

While sector-specific tariffs under laws like Section 232 remain intact, most global duties imposed under IEEPA have now been invalidated.

$150 Billion Refund Shock?

The ruling potentially opens the door to more than $150 billion in tariff refunds. Estimates from policy analysts suggest that between $130 billion and $175 billion in collected duties may now be subject to legal challenge.

Hundreds of companies, including major retailers such as Costco, had already filed lawsuits seeking repayment.

While the Court did not directly address refund mechanisms, lower courts and the Treasury Department now face the complex task of determining how and when claims may be processed.

If executed at scale, refunds could function as an unexpected fiscal injection into the private sector, a dynamic some traders have dubbed “accidental stimulus.”

Stocks Rally — Crypto Follows, Then Fades

Traditional markets responded immediately. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 surged to session highs following the announcement, reflecting relief over reduced trade tensions and lower inflation risks.

Crypto mirrored the move — but with less conviction.

Bitcoin (BTC) jumped roughly 2% on the headline, briefly reclaiming the $68,000 level before retracing toward $67,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Ethereum (ETH) and major altcoins posted modest gains but failed to sustain breakout momentum. The broader crypto market cap ticked higher in sympathy with equities before consolidating.

Crypto Market Reacts to Supreme Court Decision on Trump Tariffs. Source: CoinGecko

The initial reaction suggests the ruling is mildly bullish for digital assets. Removing broad tariffs eases fears of imported inflation, supply chain strain, and retaliatory trade wars. All these can strengthen the US dollar and pressure risk assets like crypto.

Cautious Optimism

Despite the relief bounce, sentiment remains measured. Traders are weighing several countervailing forces:

Uncertainty over how tariff refunds will impact federal revenues and fiscal stability

Signals that Trump may pivot to alternative trade authorities, such as Section 301 or Section 232

Elevated macro volatility ahead of key economic data releases

Notwithstanding, the ruling is broadly seen as net positive but not a structural catalyst, highlighting the possibility of short-term volatility rather than a sustained bull breakout.

For now, the Supreme Court’s decision reduces one major macro overhang. But with policy responses, refund logistics, and broader economic data still ahead, crypto markets appear poised for continued volatility rather than immediate liftoff.

“So importers already paid billions in tariffs that they passed on to us with higher prices. We are going to get doubly screwed because we won’t ever see a refund and you can bet prices won’t drop in the future,” one user commented.

Ethereum continues to trade sideways as uncertainty weighs on the broader crypto market. The altcoin king has struggled to regain decisive bullish momentum.

While the current structure suggests potential bottom formation, large holders appear to be making aggressive moves.

Ethereum Whales Selling Has Not Stopped

Ethereum whales have demonstrated erratic behavior in recent sessions. Sharp accumulation phases have been followed by equally aggressive distribution. This volatility signals uncertainty among high-capital participants.

Over the past two weeks, addresses holding between 100,000 and 1 million ETH have sold approximately 1.43 million ETH. At current valuations, that equals roughly $2.7 billion. Such large-scale distribution significantly impacts liquidity conditions.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Ethereum Whale Holding. Source: Santiment

This level of selling often reflects late-cycle stress rather than early panic. Historically, heavy whale exits tend to occur near capitulation phases. Large holders sometimes reduce exposure before the broader acceptance of a market bottom. These episodes frequently precede structural reversals once selling pressure exhausts.

Ethereum Bottom Signals Strengthen

On-chain data provides additional context. The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, or NUPL, indicator shows Ethereum in the capitulation zone. This reading indicates that average holders face substantial unrealized losses.

In prior cycles, similar NUPL conditions preceded meaningful reversals. However, Ethereum typically remains in this zone for extended periods. Capitulation does not imply immediate recovery.

Ethereum NUPL. Source: Glassnode

Sustained time in the capitulation band often reduces speculative selling. As weaker hands exit positions, remaining holders tend to exhibit stronger conviction. Gradual stabilization in NUPL readings can signal diminishing downside momentum before recovery begins.

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator also supports a potential ETH bottoming narrative. This metric tracks the relationship between short-term and long-term moving averages. Historically, convergence signals overheating near cycle tops.

Conversely, extreme divergence between these averages often aligns with cyclical bottoms. Current readings show meaningful separation between the two curves. Similar divergence patterns previously marked recovery zones.

Ethereum Pi Cycle Top Indicator. Source: Glassnode

Historical instances demonstrate that widening gaps preceded upward reversals. Although timing remains uncertain, this structural setup aligns with late-stage correction behavior. Combined with capitulation metrics, the data suggests Ethereum may be approaching stabilization rather than early bear expansion.

ETH Price Holds Above Support

Ethereum trades at $1,960 at the time of writing. The asset has consistently held above the $1,928 support level despite whale distribution. This zone remains technically significant in maintaining short-term structure.

Although overall sentiment remains cautious, underlying demand has prevented a sharper breakdown. Buyers appear willing to accumulate near perceived value levels. Sustained support may enable Ethereum to challenge the $2,027 resistance. Clearing $2,108 would confirm a breakout from consolidation.

ETH Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, downside risks cannot be ignored. If bearish momentum intensifies, Ethereum could lose $1,928 support. A breakdown may expose $1,820 as the next potential floor. Continued weakness could extend toward $1,750, invalidating the near-term bullish thesis.

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee. Bitcoin’s multi-year lifeline is on the line—not because of anything it did, but because of decisions being made in a courtroom far from Wall Street.

Crypto News of the Day: Supreme Court Ruling on Trump’s Tariffs Poised to Shake Markets and Bitcoin

Bitcoin and risk assets in general face heightened volatility on February 20, 2026, as the U.S. Supreme Court prepares to issue its long-awaited ruling on the legality of President Trump’s 2025 tariffs.

The decision, expected at 10:00 AM ET, could have sweeping implications for trade, government revenue, and global markets.

The case, consolidated as Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump and Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc., challenges whether Trump had the legal authority to impose broad tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.

While IEEPA allows the President to address “unusual and extraordinary threats” to national security or the economy, it does not explicitly authorize sweeping trade tariffs.

Lower courts have twice ruled against the administration, setting the stage for the Supreme Court’s opinion.

Prediction markets suggest a high likelihood of illegality, with Polymarket pricing roughly a 26% chance that the Supreme Court will uphold the tariffs.

Odds of the Supreme Court Ruling in Favor of Trump’s Tariffs. Source: Polymarket

The odds are almost identical on prediction market Kalshi, where bettors wager on a 25.7% chance that the court rules in favor of Trump’s tariffs. Notably, crowd bets on Kalshi are gaining more authority of late.

Odds of the Supreme Court Ruling in Favor of Trump’s Tariffs. Source: Kalshi

If upheld, tariffs would remain in place, potentially escalating trade tensions with Canada, the EU, China, and other partners. If struck down, importers could be entitled to refunds of duties collected since early 2025.

The $600 Billion Tariff Claim: Reality vs. Hype

Notably, some media and crypto commentators have cited Trump’s repeated claim that his tariffs generated $600 billion in revenue. However, neutral analyses, including the Penn-Wharton Budget Model, place the actual exposure at $133–$179 billion, a fraction of the widely referenced figure.

Notwithstanding, even at these lower levels, the financial impact could ripple through markets, with traders anticipating “pure chaos” as markets price in:

Potential refunds

Emergency replacement tariffs, and

Retaliatory actions from trade partners.

Crypto, equities, and bond markets are all expected to experience turbulence, with liquidity swings and risk-off sentiment particularly affecting Bitcoin in the short term.

BTC’s market capitalization was $1.35 trillion, with prices trading for $67,445 as of this writing.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto A Perfect Storm: Supreme Court Ruling Meets Key Economic Data

The timing of the Supreme Court ruling coincides with other key US economic data releases, including Q4 GDP, the PCE Price Index, and the Manufacturing PMI. These may amplify market volatility.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court’s decision carries broader implications for executive authority and fiscal policy.

A ruling against Trump could require the Treasury to process hundreds of billions in refunds, widening deficits and potentially prompting emergency legislation or alternative trade measures.

For crypto traders, this translates into a period of elevated uncertainty, in which macro shocks and risk sentiment can drive market swings independent of fundamentals.

Whether Bitcoin holds its multi-year lifeline or succumbs to a volatility surge will depend in large part on the legal and economic fallout of this landmark decision.

Chart of the Day

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: TradingView Byte-Sized Alpha

Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

Metaplanet CEO fires back at critics as $1.2 billion Bitcoin paper losses mount.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs post largest cycle drawdown, balances fall by 100,300 BTC.

Silver supply crisis looms as Binance hits $70 billion volume in precious metals like gold.

Ethereum struggles below $2,000, yet BitMine sees a rebound: Here’s what they’re watching.

Blue Owl halts redemptions amid private credit stress: Will crypto feel the impact?

Bitcoin hashrate shows a V-Shaped recovery — Will Bitcoin price follow?

CZ networks freely at Mar-a-Lago amid Binance’s USD1 surge.

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview

CompanyClose As of February 19Pre-Market OverviewStrategy (MSTR)$129.45$130.53 (+0.83%)Coinbase (COIN)$165.94$167.03 (+0.66%)Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY)$21.63$21.54 (-0.42%)MARA Holdings (MARA)$7.96$8.00 (+0.50%)Riot Platforms (RIOT)$16.22$16.20 (-0.12%)Core Scientific (CORZ)$17.98$17.68 (-1.67%)

Crypto equities market open race: Google Finance

Hedera’s native token, HBAR, is attempting to regain lost ground after weeks of constrained trading. The price recently approached the $0.10 threshold but failed to secure a decisive breakout. Since the beginning of the month, resistance near this level has limited upward progress.

While HBAR briefly reclaimed $0.10, momentum stalled just below a key technical barrier. Traders have adjusted their positioning, though not decisively in favor of sustained upside. 

HBAR Holders Are Buying

The Money Flow Index, or MFI, indicates that buying pressure is gradually building on HBAR. This volume-weighted momentum indicator measures capital inflows and outflows based on both price and trading volume. Currently, the MFI is positioned above the neutral 50 mark, signaling that buyers are regaining influence.

An MFI reading in positive territory suggests accumulation may be underway. Rising inflows often precede price appreciation, especially when supported by higher trading activity. If this trend continues, HBAR could benefit from sustained accumulation, strengthening the case for a recovery attempt above immediate resistance levels.

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HBAR MFI. Source: TradingView Hedera Traders Remain Skeptical

Broader derivatives data offer a mixed but slightly constructive outlook. HBAR’s funding rate is currently skewed toward long positions, indicating that traders are willing to pay a premium to hold bullish contracts. Positive funding rates typically reflect expectations of upward price movement.

However, volatility in the funding rate over the past two weeks highlights lingering uncertainty. Between February 6 and February 11, short contracts dominated open interest, placing downward pressure on HBAR. This dominance quickly reversed, turned positive, and then shifted negative again.

HBAR Funding Rate. Source: Coinglass

Such fluctuations reveal hesitation among leveraged traders. Although short dominance has declined recently, conviction remains fragile. Stable positive funding would strengthen the bullish thesis, but current data suggests sentiment is still reactive to short-term price swings rather than anchored in long-term confidence.

HBAR Price Aims High

HBAR is trading at $0.0992 at the time of writing. The token remains above the $0.0961 support level, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Holding this level is technically significant, as it represents a key inflection point for trend continuation.

However, resistance at $0.1035, at the 50% Fibonacci retracement, is capping upward movement and limiting breakout attempts.

A decisive move above $0.1035 would signal a short-term structural shift. Turning this resistance into support could attract fresh demand, particularly if buying pressure continues to rise. 

HBAR Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

The next target would stand at $0.1109, corresponding to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This level is widely monitored by traders and often acts as a strong support zone once reclaimed.

However, if bullish indicators fail to strengthen, consolidation may persist near current levels. Continued outflows would weaken breakout attempts and reinforce resistance at $0.1035.

A breakdown below the $0.0961 support would shift the short-term structure bearish. In that scenario, HBAR could decline toward $0.0870, invalidating the immediate recovery outlook and restoring stronger control to sellers.

CME Group will run cryptocurrency futures and options on CME Globex around the clock starting May 29, 2026, after recording $3 trillion in notional volume across its crypto derivatives in 2025.

Why it matters:

Traders can react to breaking news on weekends, eliminating the price gap risk that builds when crypto markets move while CME is closed.

Institutions managing crypto exposure via CME derivatives gain continuous hedging access, reducing overnight risk accumulation.

The move signals CME’s direct response to demand from TradFi firms scaling into digital assets.

The details:

CME Group announced the 24/7 schedule on February 19, 2026, pending regulatory approval, per an official press release.

Crypto derivatives average daily volume (ADV) hit 407,200 contracts year-to-date in 2026, up 46% year-over-year.

Futures ADV reached 403,900 contracts, up 47% year-over-year, per CME Group data.

Average daily open interest stands at 335,400 contracts, up 7% year-over-year.

CME confirmed the launch date of May 29, 2026, via its official X account.

The big picture:

For years, crypto markets have operated with a clear gap. DeFi introduced open and transparent trading, while centralized exchanges continued to handle most price discovery. The difference came down to infrastructure. Most blockchains focused on running applications, not high-speed trading. Order books, tight spreads, and real-time hedging demand fast execution and low costs, and that level of performance is now becoming non-negotiable.

At these volumes, the pressure on infrastructure becomes obvious. According to DeFiLlama, decentralized perpetual futures markets are now clearing roughly $20–30 billion in daily volume, with monthly volumes regularly approaching the $1 trillion range depending on market conditions.

As this trend accelerates, MegaETH, a high-performance Ethereum Layer 2 built around ultra-low latency and high throughput, has gone live. Among the first flagship applications to launch on this Layer 2 network on February 17 was World Markets – a decentralized trading platform that unifies spot trading, perpetual futures, and lending under a single account. 

As one of the first full trading platforms on the network, it effectively serves as an early test of whether performance-focused chains can support institutional-style market structure on-chain.

When Markets Outgrow the Infrastructure

For most of DeFi’s first wave, the focus was composability. Protocols stacked on top of each other, liquidity moved across AMMs, and lending markets thrived.

However, serious trading is different from yield farming.

Order books require constant updates. Market makers need predictable fees. High-frequency traders need execution that doesn’t lag behind centralized venues by seconds. Even small inefficiencies compound when leverage is involved.

That’s where many general-purpose chains struggled.

Gas fees on networks like Base or Arbitrum can fluctuate dramatically during congestion. Latency, even if acceptable for swaps or NFT mints, becomes a real issue when managing leveraged derivatives.

Kevin Coons, founder of World Markets, speaks candidly:

“There has yet to be a successful DEX on a general purpose chain. Two simple reasons are gas and speed. Gas costs can be close to 100x higher. High gas costs prevent market makers from being able to quote tight spreads meaning on-chain exchanges can’t be competitive with Binance, until now.”

Whether or not one agrees with the 100x comparison, the broader point resonates: tight spreads and fast execution aren’t optional features in capital markets. They’re the foundation.

Coons adds:

“Speed matters to an extent. Being within range of Binance is important for getting price discovery on-chain. MegaETH is the first chain where price discovery is possible.”

That statement speaks to a larger trend. If decentralized markets want to compete, they can’t just be transparent but efficient as well.

MegaETH and the Rise of Performance Chains

MegaETH has positioned itself differently from earlier Ethereum scaling efforts.

Instead of focusing only on cheaper gas, it emphasizes performance metrics closer to centralized systems, targeting very high throughput and low confirmation times. The project has publicly referenced stress tests processing billions of transactions ahead of mainnet launch.

Official docs and ecosystem materials emphasize execution speed specifically for latency-sensitive use cases like order books and gaming.

This approach aligns with a pattern seen elsewhere. Hyperliquid, another trading-focused environment, has become one of the most active perpetual futures venues onchain, frequently clearing billions in daily volume.

The takeaway is that markets seem to gravitate toward infrastructure built specifically for trading workloads. General-purpose chains aren’t disappearing but capital markets are starting to migrate toward environments designed for financial throughput.

What World Markets Is Trying to Change

World Markets enters this environment with a structural design choice: unified margin.

Instead of forcing traders to separate capital across spot markets, perpetual futures, and lending platforms, the system keeps everything under a single portfolio.

On paper, that sounds straightforward. In practice, it opens the door to strategies that were previously difficult on-chain, including basis trades that exploit the structural gap between borrow rates and perpetual funding rates.

Traditional DeFi often leaves capital fragmented and heavily overcollateralized, forcing traders to split borrowing, hedging, and execution across separate platforms, with billions in capital sitting idle or locked inefficiently because the infrastructure never unified those functions.

World Markets attempts to consolidate all of that. The platform’s ATLAS risk engine enables portfolio-level margining and undercollateralized lending – mechanics more common in prime brokerage models than in early DeFi protocols.

In traditional finance, hedge funds operate under consolidated accounts where risk is assessed at the portfolio level. DeFi historically hasn’t worked that way.

World Markets is effectively attempting to replicate prime brokerage-style capital management on-chain, giving traders access to structures that have traditionally been reserved for institutional desks.

Rethinking Liquidations and Risk

Liquidation mechanics are one of the most controversial parts of leveraged trading.

Most exchanges, both centralized or decentralized, rely on automated systems that close positions once thresholds are breached. While necessary for solvency, those systems can override trader discretion.

World Markets frames its model differently. In Coons’ view:

“Sophisticated traders have highly leveraged portfolios. They reduce risk by hedging… Exchanges currently socialize these losses to their users by closing out their positions. On World Markets you have ultimate control over your risk. We don’t decide your risk for you.”

The idea is to give traders more direct control over counterparty exposure rather than relying entirely on exchange-imposed forced liquidations.

Whether that model scales will depend on adoption and liquidity depth. But structurally, it signals a move away from rigid, siloed liquidation logic toward portfolio-based risk management.

Where On-Chain Markets Are Heading 

Zooming out, this moment is bigger than any single platform. Decentralized markets are beginning to outgrow the general-purpose infrastructure they were originally built on. DeFi’s first phase focused on access and composability. The next phase is about capital efficiency, execution quality, and market structure that can handle real trading volume.

According to Messari’s 2025 derivatives research, perpetual futures have become one of the largest segments of DeFi by volume, accounting for a significant share of total on-chain activity.

At that scale, performance stops being optional. Competing with centralized venues requires tighter spreads, faster execution, and deeper liquidity, all of which depend on infrastructure designed specifically for financial workloads.

MegaETH is aligning itself with that change, and World Markets’ launch represents one of the earliest attempts to run a fully integrated trading stack, including a central limit order book, on infrastructure designed specifically for high-speed financial execution. It signals a maturing phase for DeFi, where the chain itself becomes a strategic choice aligned with the demands of capital markets.

The probability of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 surged to a record 82% on Polymarket earlier today.

The increase in odds comes ahead of a looming deadline to move the key crypto legislation forward.

Polymarket Signals Growing Confidence in Clarity Act as Negotiations Accelerate 

Data from Polymarket shows that the probability of the Clarity Act becoming law rose sharply over the past 48 hours. Odds climbed from around 60% on February 18 to a peak of 82% earlier today. 

At press time, the figure had eased to 78%, still reflecting a significant jump and signaling growing market confidence in the bill’s prospects.

Odds of Clarity Act Passing in 2026. Source: Polymarket

The optimism is not limited to prediction market traders. Industry executives are also projecting strong momentum. 

In an interview with Fox Business, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said there’s a 90% chance that the long-debated Clarity Act will pass by the end of April.

“The White House is pushing hard on this, and that is a big reason why it will get done. It needs to get done for US leadership,” he said.

The rise in retail optimism comes as the White House moves to push negotiations forward. According to Fox Business, a March 1 deadline has been set to advance the legislation ahead of the midterms.

White House Hosts Third Meeting as Clarity Act Deadline Nears

The Clarity Act is focused on establishing a regulatory framework for digital assets. At its core, the bill aims to clearly define regulatory oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The legislation passed the House last July. However, the Senate’s version remains stalled. The primary point of contention between banks and crypto firms centers on stablecoin yields. Last month, Coinbase withdrew its support for the bill after the Senate’s changes. 

The administration has convened several discussions involving crypto firms and banking representatives, with a third meeting held on Thursday. 

According to journalist Eleanor Terrett, a representative from the crypto industry argued that banks’ concerns may be rooted more in competitive dynamics than in measurable concerns over deposit flight.

A source representing banks told Terret that, for their part, they are pushing further analysis of how stablecoins could affect traditional deposit bases.

“Bank trade groups will brief their members on today’s discussions and gauge whether there’s room to compromise on allowing crypto firms to offer stablecoin rewards. One source said an end-of-month deadline doesn’t seem unrealistic, with talks set to continue in the coming days,” Terrett said.

As discussions move forward, March 1 stands out as a critical date in the legislative timeline. Despite ongoing disagreements, market analysts still view the bill as broadly positive for the industry.

If passed, it would mark a significant step toward reducing regulatory uncertainty and establishing clearer rules for the crypto sector overall.

While silver inventories on COMEX continue to decline, Binance’s newly launched gold and silver perpetual futures have already surpassed $70 billion in trading volume within weeks.

The sharp convergence across metals and crypto derivatives markets signals surging demand for 24/7 synthetic exposure to precious metals.

Physical Silver Tightens as 24/7 Derivatives Demand Accelerates Across Crypto and Metals Markets

Binance recorded over $70 billion in trading volume across its XAU/USDT and XAG/USDT perpetual contracts.

It points to a strong appetite for always-on, on-chain access to gold and silver price movements. The milestone highlights how traders are increasingly turning to crypto-native platforms to gain exposure to metals without traditional market-hour constraints.

At the same time, physical silver dynamics are tightening. Silver backing futures keep falling, with the March-to-May contract roll reaching 30 million ounces per day. This pace could clear the current open interest.

“At that pace, COMEX is out of silver by February 27,” wrote investment specialist Karel Mercx, adding that from April onward, the market risks a physical shortage unless meaningful inflows arrive in the coming weeks.

The structure of the futures curve adds to the urgency. When adjusting for financing costs such as SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) and storage, the March–May spread is approaching backwardation. This condition effectively signals immediate demand for physical metal over future delivery.

In carry-adjusted terms, backwardation signals that physical silver is more valuable now than later.

Volatility Surges as 24/7 Trading Reshapes Risk Across Metals and Crypto

Rising futures prices can intensify this dynamic, as higher forward pricing encourages speculative buying.  It also prompts producers and holders to retain physical supply in anticipation of further appreciation, pulling additional metal out of the market.

Meanwhile, gold volatility has surged, with its 30-day volatility at its highest level since 2008. The surge reflects heightened macro uncertainty and rapid shifts in positioning across derivatives markets.

Gold’s 30-day volatility is at the highest level since 2008. Source: Investment researcher Hedgeye on X

The structural shift toward round-the-clock trading is not limited to crypto exchanges. CME Group announced that beginning May 29, crypto futures and options will trade 24 hours a day, seven days a week on CME Globex, pending regulatory review.

CME reported a record $3 trillion in notional volume across crypto futures and options in 2025, citing record-high demand for digital asset risk management.

Year-to-date 2026 data show average daily volume up 46% year-over-year and futures ADV up 47%, reinforcing sustained institutional participation.

The development may also reduce the risk of weekend price gaps. This would allow markets to respond instantly to geopolitical or macro shocks. Notably, the feature is already native to crypto exchanges like Binance.

Taken together, the surge in derivatives activity, accelerating silver inventory drawdowns, elevated gold volatility, and the normalization of 24/7 trading suggest markets are entering a structurally different phase.

As physical supply tightens and financial access expands, traders are positioning for potential scarcity in both metals vaults and digital order books.

Private capital firm Blue Owl Capital, with over $307 billion in assets under management, has permanently halted investor redemptions at a retail-focused private debt fund.

The suspension has triggered concerns among economists. Furthermore, it has raised a key question about whether the private credit market could impact the broader crypto market.

Everything to Know About Blue Owl’s Redemption Changes

According to Bloomberg, the private credit firm has seen a rise in withdrawal requests in recent months. This was partly driven by investor concerns over its exposure to software companies amid the artificial intelligence surge.

FT noted that Blue Owl Capital Corp II (OBDC II) has been closed to redemptions since November. The firm had previously indicated it might reopen withdrawals later this quarter, but it has now abandoned that plan. 

Earlier this week, the company revealed that quarterly redemptions would no longer be available to OBDC II investors. Instead, the firm plans to distribute cash through periodic payments tied to asset sales.

“We’re not halting redemptions, we are simply changing the method by which we’re providing redemptions,” Blue Owl co-President Craig Packer told analysts on a conference call Thursday, as per Reuters.

According to Packer, payouts to fund holders are expected to be roughly 30% of the fund’s value, up from the prior 5% cap.

“We are returning six times as much capital and returning it to all shareholders over the next 45 days. In the coming quarters we will continue to pursue this plan to return capital to OBDC II investors,” Blue Owl commented on its latest plan.

Blue Owl also moved to sell approximately $1.4 billion in assets from three of its credit funds. Bloomberg revealed that Chicago-based insurer Kuvare, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System, and British Columbia Investment Management Corp. purchased the debt, according to people familiar with the matter. Blue Owl added that the loans were sold at 99.7% of par value.

Private Credit Market Faces Growing Strain 

Market analyst Crypto Rover suggested that Blue Owl’s redemption freeze reflects mounting pressures across the $3 trillion private credit sector. He outlined several warning signs. 

First, about 40% of direct lending firms now report negative free operating cash flow. Default rates among middle-market borrowers have climbed to 4.55% and continue to rise. 

Notably, 30% of firms with debt due before 2027 show negative EBITDA, making refinancing challenging. Meanwhile, credit downgrades have outpaced upgrades for seven straight quarters.

“If the stress continues in the private credit market, it’ll first impact the small businesses for whom the private credit market is a critical funding source. Additionally, it’ll cause refinancing costs to go up and will result in more defaults, which will create a vicious cycle. The only way to stop this is by lowering interest rates and providing liquidity,” the analyst added.

Economist Mohamed A. El-Erian questioned whether the situation could represent an early warning signal similar to those seen in 2007 before the 2008 global financial crisis.

Implications for Crypto Markets

Stress in the private credit market does not automatically translate into direct contagion for crypto, but indirect linkages deserve attention. A recent analysis from BeInCrypto indicates Bitcoin has closely tracked US software equities.

A meaningful share of private credit is allocated to software companies, linking these markets through shared growth-risk exposure. If lending conditions tighten or refinancing risks rise, valuations in the software sector could come under pressure. 

Rising defaults, widening credit spreads, and constrained capital access would likely weigh on growth stocks. Given Bitcoin’s correlation with high-growth equities during tightening cycles, sustained weakness in software could spill over into crypto markets. 

That said, this remains a second-order macro effect rather than direct structural exposure. The critical variable is the broader financial response. If stress leads to tighter financial conditions, Bitcoin could face downside alongside tech. 

If it triggers monetary easing or renewed liquidity support, crypto may ultimately benefit. For now, the risk is cyclical and liquidity-driven, not systemic to digital assets themselves.

Ethereum (ETH) is holding below $2,000, leaving many investors underwater as the downtrend extends into February 2026.

Despite the sustained weakness, BitMine has maintained a bullish stance on Ethereum. This raises a key question: Is their confidence driven by narrative or sentiment, or is there another factor behind their conviction?

Ethereum’s Pain Reaches 9th Decile: What Does That Mean For The Price?

In a detailed post on X (formerly Twitter), BitMine highlighted the research by Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy, focusing on Ethereum’s realized price. This is an on-chain valuation metric that reflects the average acquisition cost of all coins currently in circulation.

According to the data, Ethereum’s realized price stands at $2,241. At the time of the analysis, the asset was trading near $1,934. 

This leaves the average holder in the red. According to Fundstrat’s model, the “loss for realized price was 22%.”

Ethereum’s Realized Price Analysis Showing the Gap Between On-Chain Cost Basis and Market Price. Source: X/BitMine

The analysis compared the current drawdown to prior cycle lows. During the 2022 bear market, Ethereum traded as much as 39% below its realized price. In 2025, the discount reached approximately 21%. 

“If we apply this ‘loss’ to the current realized ETH price of $2,241, we get implied ‘lows’ for ETH. Using 2022, this implies $1,367. Using 2025, this implies $1,770,” the analysis noted.

Using a decile analysis, the post revealed that the current drawdown falls into the 9th decile (extremely high). For context, a decile analysis is a quantitative method used in statistics, finance, and marketing to segment a dataset into 10 equal-sized groups (deciles) based on the distribution of a specific variable.

The data suggests that the median 12-month forward return in this decile was approximately 81%, with a 12-month win ratio of 87%. In other words, in most historical instances when ETH reached similar drawdown levels, it was trading higher one year later.

“Is this the bottom? Seems like we are closing in on that low. Looking beyond the near-term, the risk/reward for ETH is positive,” the post read.

ETH Returns by Decile. Source: X/BitMine

BitMine Chairman Tom Lee previously emphasized that sharp drawdowns are a recurring feature of Ethereum’s price history. Since 2018, ETH has experienced eight separate declines of 50% or more from local highs, suggesting that corrections of this magnitude have occurred roughly once per year.

In 2025, Ethereum fell 64% between January and March. Despite that steep drop, the asset later rebounded significantly.

“ETH sees V-shaped recoveries from major lows. This happened in each of the 8 prior declines of 50% or more. A similar recovery is expected in 2026. The best investment opportunities in crypto have presented themselves after declines. Think back to 2025, the single best entry points in crypto occurred after markets fell sharply due to tariff concerns,” Lee said.

Ethereum Recovery Could Be Critical for BitMine’s $7 Billion Underwater Position

If Ethereum delivers a sustained recovery with strong upside returns, it could represent a meaningful inflection point for investors, particularly BitMine. The company’s unrealized losses have expanded to approximately $7 billion, according to CryptoQuant data.

BitMine Unrealized Losses on Ethereum Holdings. Source: CryptoQuant

At the same time, BitMine appears to be reinforcing its bullish stance through continued accumulation. Lookonchain reported that the firm purchased 10,000 ETH from Kraken today.

This transaction followed a much larger single-day acquisition of 35,000 ETH. BitMine acquired 20,000 ETH from BitGo and 15,000 ETH from FalconX.

Taken together, the purchases suggest that despite mounting unrealized losses, BitMine is positioning for a potential upside scenario rather than reducing exposure.

MYX Finance delivered one of the most aggressive intraday rallies in the crypto market this week. After nearly two weeks of persistent decline, the altcoin surged 90% in less than 12 hours. The sharp reversal caught short sellers off guard and reignited speculative interest.

The rally followed news of MYX Finance’s strategic funding round led by Consensys, with participation from Consensys Mesh and Systemic Ventures. The announcement came ahead of the MYX V2 launch. Investors interpreted the backing as a validation of long-term viability, triggering immediate demand.

MYX Finance’s Recovery Was Foretold

BeInCrypto’s analysis highlighted how a rebound was already likely. The Money Flow Index, which measures buying and selling pressure using price and volume, fell below the 20.0 threshold. This marked the first time MYX entered extreme oversold territory since launch.

Oversold readings often indicate selling exhaustion. When MFI drops under 20.0, downside momentum typically weakens. The data suggested that panic-driven distribution had reached saturation. As selling pressure faded, fresh accumulation began, creating the conditions for a sharp recovery.

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MYX MFI. Source: TradingView

Derivatives positioning reinforces the bullish shift. The liquidation map shows MYX contracts currently skewed toward long exposure. Approximately $2.46 million in long positions are active, reflecting growing optimism among traders.

Funding rates have also turned positive. Positive funding indicates that long traders are paying to maintain positions. This dynamic signals confidence in continued upside. However, elevated leverage can increase volatility if momentum stalls.

MYX Liquidation Map. Source: Coinglass MYX Price Needs To Breach a Few Barriers

MYX price surged 90% on Friday, pushing the 24-hour gain to 70.6%. At the time of writing, the token trades at $1.74. The move partially offsets the 87% correction recorded over the previous 12 days.

The next resistance stands at $1.82. A decisive break above this level could open the path toward $2.28. Sustained volume and capital inflows will be necessary to validate the breakout. Without confirmation, upside may remain fragile.

MYX Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

If the rally was fueled primarily by speculation surrounding the funding round, selling pressure could return quickly. A failure to sustain gains may send MYX back toward $1.01. Such a decline would invalidate the bullish thesis and erase much of the recent recovery.

Bitcoin’s hashrate — a key metric that measures the network’s total computational power — recorded a sharp V-shaped recovery in February.

This sudden turnaround has raised hopes that Bitcoin may end its five-month losing streak and make a strong recovery.

Hashrate–Price Correlation Points to a Potential Upside Scenario

A previous report by BeInCrypto noted that Bitcoin’s hashrate suffered a major shock in early 2026. An extreme Arctic cold wave swept across the United States.

Freezing temperatures, heavy snowfall, and surging heating demand strained the national power grid. Authorities issued energy-saving requests, and several regions experienced localized blackouts.

As a result, the network’s hashrate dropped by roughly 30%. Around 1.3 million mining machines went offline, slowing block production.

By February, however, data showed a swift turnaround. Hashrate rebounded from below 850 EH/s to over 1 ZH/s, recovering nearly all of the previous large downward adjustment.

Bitcoin Hashrate. Source: CryptoQuant.

“Bitcoin mining just got ~15% harder, with the largest ever increase in absolute difficulty, completely erasing last epoch’s huge downwards adjustment,” commented Mononaut, a developer at Mempool.

Despite the recovery in hashrate, Bitcoin’s price continues to fluctuate below $70,000 and has not mirrored the same strength. According to the market analytics platform Hedgeye, the cost to mine one Bitcoin in February is approximately $84,000. This suggests that many miners are still operating at a loss.

The rise in hashrate reflects the return of computational capacity. Miners have powered machines back on and appear more optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term profitability.

Historical data shows that V-shaped recoveries in hashrate often coincide with strong price rebounds.

Bitcoin Hashrate vs. Price. Source: Blockchain.com

A notable example occurred in mid-2021. After China imposed a sweeping ban on Bitcoin mining, hashrate plunged by more than 50%, falling from 166 EH/s to 95 EH/s in July. Months later, a V-shaped recovery in hashrate paralleled a powerful price rebound. Bitcoin surged from around $30,000 to above $60,000 by the end of the year.

“Bitcoin network hashrate has sharply recovered after the recent dip, a strong signal that miner confidence remains intact and they are coming back online. Historically, hashrate is a leading indicator during recoveries. Price tends to follow hashrate,” said Satoxis, a Bitcoin OG.

Data from CryptoQuant on Bitcoin Miner Outflow further supports the view that miners expect a price recovery. The 7-day average outflow from miner wallets has fallen to its lowest level since May 2023.

Bitcoin Miner Outflow. Source: CryptoQuant

This trend indicates that miners are no longer aggressively selling their holdings. Instead, they appear to be holding in anticipation of a potential rebound.

Additional analysis from BeInCrypto emphasizes that any sustained recovery at this stage requires confirmation through a breakout above $71,693.

Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the recently pardoned founder of Binance, returned to the US this week, for the first time since leaving federal prison in 2024. He attended the crypto summit hosted by the Trump family–backed World Liberty Financial (WLFI) at Mar-a-Lago.

The appearance marked a dramatic turnaround for CZ, who pleaded guilty in 2023 to anti-money laundering violations and served a four-month sentence before being granted a full presidential pardon in October 2025.

CZ Returns to US After Presidential Pardon

Reports describe the gathering as both low-key and symbolically loaded. During the event, CZ:

Mingled with Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr.,

Attended panels, including one with newly appointed CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, and

Shared space with prominent figures such as Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, NYSE President Lynn Martin, Coinbase founder Brian Armstrong, Senator Bernie Moreno, Kevin O’Leary, and even Nicki Minaj.

“Learned a lot,” CZ shared, emphasizing policy insights rather than political optics.

The optics of CZ’s return are striking. From federal prison and a $50 million personal fine to casually networking at the president’s club, the event signals that the legal chapter is closed.

Trump’s pardoning of CZ effectively removed long-term barriers to US travel and business activity. It allows him to rebuild influence within elite financial and regulatory circles.

Networks at Mar-a-Lago as Binance Controls 87% of Trump-Linked USD1 Stablecoin

The timing also coincides with Binance’s growing role in WLFI’s USD1 stablecoin. The exchange reportedly controls roughly 85–87% of the $5.4 billion circulating supply, strengthening a Trump-backed venture that critics have questioned for potential conflicts of interest.

While some lawmakers and commentators have raised concerns about a perceived quid pro quo between the pardon and Binance’s dominance in the stablecoin, CZ has repeatedly called such reports “not news.”

Nevertheless, Binance is reinforcing its dominance in the USD1 ecosystem with a fresh incentive push. From February 20 to March 20, the exchange will distribute 235 million WLFI tokens to USD1 holders, rewarding early adopters for providing liquidity.

Mar-a-Lago Summit Highlights Crypto-Political Convergence and USD1 Ambitions

The Mar-a-Lago summit highlighted the convergence of crypto, finance, and political influence. World Liberty’s leadership outlined ambitious plans for USD1, framing it as a “new digital Bretton Woods system” to integrate real estate, banking, and decentralized finance.

“…the work is just beginning… We are building the future, and we are doing it together,” WLFI wrote.

Attendees were urged to explore its use, while WLFI also announced upcoming tokenized investment products tied to Trump resorts.

Despite Binance remaining barred from US operations due to the 2023 settlement, CZ’s presence at a high-profile US event highlights a shift.

Engagements with policy leaders like CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam and lobbying veterans such as Brian Armstrong suggest that figures like CZ are regaining a foothold in discussions shaping the future of digital assets.

Whether CZ’s return to the US will translate into renewed operational influence for Binance or remain a high-level networking exercise is uncertain.

What is clear, however, is the symbolism: a once-convicted crypto executive now freely attends elite US circles, at an event that blends business ambition with political connections. Meanwhile, his firm exerts unprecedented influence over a politically linked stablecoin.

PUNCH, a Solana-based meme coin, has surged more than 80,000% since its launch earlier this month, capturing traders’ attention across the ecosystem.

As its market cap expands and accumulation intensifies, concerns are also mounting. Amid the token’s explosive rally, analysts are highlighting red flags surrounding this new market entrant.

What Is PUNCH Token?

PUNCH is a token inspired by the story of a baby Japanese macaque named Punch and his inseparable plush companion. The token positions itself as a community-driven cryptocurrency built around emotion, comfort, and companionship.

According to details provided on the website, the token has a fixed total supply of 1 billion. The project states that its liquidity has been locked and burned. 

It also claims that ownership has been renounced. In addition, the token operates with a 0% tax.

“PUNCH is gearing up to be the MOODENG of 2026,” an analyst wrote.

Solana Meme Coin PUNCH Skyrockets to $30 Million Market Cap 

Data from GeckoTerminal showed that the token began trading earlier this month. Momentum accelerated as the story of the baby macaque gained traction across media outlets and social platforms. Over the past week alone, the meme coin has surged 22,290.8%.

PUNCH Token Price Performance. Source: GeckoTerminal

During early Asian trading hours today, PUNCH hit an all-time high, with its market cap climbing above $30 million. On CoinGecko, the token emerged as the top daily gainer, posting a 260% increase. It also ranks third among the platform’s top trending cryptocurrencies.

The rally has attracted substantial investor interest. Blockchain tracker Stalkchain highlighted one wallet that accumulated approximately $226,000 worth of PUNCH.

Data from Nansen also revealed that over the past seven days, public figure holdings in PUNCH surged 89.69%. However, smart money and whale holdings have declined.

PUNCH Token Public Figure Accumulation. Source: Nansen Crypto Watchers Raise Red Flags Over PUNCH 

Several market watchers have raised concerns about the token. Crypto analyst StarPlatinum has alleged that the token shows “multiple signs of coordinated insider control.”

In a post on X, the analyst claimed that the creator wallet, identified as A8Z1ejQGk45EJibBPJviWnM3UvwKSuYun53nSCkWKM52, distributed approximately 100 billion PUNCH tokens, equivalent to 10% of the total supply, soon after the token went live. 

According to the analysis, the wallet (A8Z1e) sent 48.2 billion tokens directly to another wallet, CgR8tggfcM8Re5agDY5fsT4pKmqQTzF8vQ7jQknM6iBj. This entity allegedly acted as an intermediary between the creator and several large holders.

Blockchain traces shared in the thread suggest a flow pattern from the creator wallet to the intermediary address, then to large wallets. Among the top linked holders identified:

Wallet Hbx5PturLVp9F7YYG18jZZSWFTNp9TTSXEJepq6pvSi3 reportedly holds 35 billion PUNCH, or 3.5% of the total supply, and was funded from the intermediary wallet.

Wallet H8GLvJ89DwoeBTY3YhepLTf3VmKR44qVnskNdEZHQVDPK holds 25.1 billion tokens, representing 2.5% of supply, and was allegedly funded by the largest holder.

Wallet DXU65912VjiPUhKR37TLiHCrbp4uNHVNNZiBdLv1uAx1 controls 17.5 billion tokens, or 1.75% of supply, and is said to be connected within the same funding cluster.

Combined, these three wallets account for approximately 7.75% of the total supply, with all allocations allegedly traceable back to the initial creator distribution, according to the claims.

“This is how controlled memecoins are structured. Stay careful,” StarPlatinum wrote.

Here, it’s worth noting that the website specifies that PUNCH’s total supply stands at 1 billion. Meanwhile, the White Whale also identified two “red flags” related to the PUNCH token. 

“1. Bubble maps is too perfect. Too clean. Real life is messy. 2. Liquidity does NOT look like this. In fact it simply cannot look like this due to how distribution takes place on the idiotic constant product pools,” he noted. “Almost 6x “support” in equal distance below than  resistance above? It’s fake, guys. No coin gets that much support organically with liquidity just sitting around on the books in case of a dip. It’s all done through Meteora.”

However, the White Whale clarified that he is not directly accusing the project team or developers of orchestrating the activity. He stated that the project itself “may or may not be good.”

“I didn’t warn people when I saw the warning signs on Penguin because I didn’t want to be accused of having a conflict of interest. Those same warning signs are now presenting themselves on Punch. Trade carefully. We never know when the cabal is going to pull the rug,” he wrote in another post.

Thus, while PUNCH’s rally has attracted significant interest, analysts’ concerns raise questions about the sustainability of its momentum. As with many sharply appreciating meme coins, heightened volatility and structural risks remain key factors for traders to monitor.

Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich fired back at critics, accusing the Japanese Bitcoin-holding firm of misusing shareholder funds and hiding key disclosures.

Why it matters:

Metaplanet holds over $1.2 billion in unrealized Bitcoin losses, making transparency around fund use a direct concern for shareholders.

Allegations of undisclosed borrowing against BTC holdings raise governance red flags for public-company crypto investors.

The details:

Critics alleged Metaplanet bought BTC at a market top, stayed silent during the drawdown, and borrowed against those holdings without disclosing interest rates or counterparties.

Gerovich confirmed Bitcoin wallet addresses are publicly listed, with a live shareholder dashboard tracking holdings in real time.

Gerovich called September’s purchase price a “local top” but defended a long-term, non-market-timed strategy.

The company reported 6.2 billion yen in operating profit — up 1,694% year-over-year.

Gerovich attributed reported accounting losses solely to unrealized mark-to-market BTC fluctuations on unsold holdings.

Meanwhile, CoinGecko currently tracks Metaplanet’s unrealized BTC losses at over $1.2 billion.

The big picture:

Metaplanet follows the MicroStrategy playbook — using equity and debt to accumulate Bitcoin as a primary treasury asset.

Corporate BTC holders now face growing pressure to meet traditional disclosure standards as unrealized losses mount across the sector.

The allegations expose a structural tension: Bitcoin’s on-chain transparency does not automatically satisfy securities law disclosure requirements.

Veteran market strategist Tom Lee signaled that the US stock market may be approaching a pivotal turning point.

He highlighted three sectors, including crypto, as potential leaders in the next market rally.

Market Rotation and Crypto Set the Stage for Next Rally, Tom Lee Says

Speaking on CNBC’s Closing Bell, Lee outlined a cautiously optimistic scenario in which the S&P 500 could climb toward 7,300 as risk-off positioning eases and earnings remain strong.

“Stocks have taken some hits,” Lee said, pointing to a recent software downturn and a rotation out of the MAG 7 mega-cap tech stocks into AI-focused “bullet makers,” alongside broader risk-off moves into gold.

Despite this volatility, he emphasized that underlying fundamentals remain solid, supported by broad double-digit earnings growth across the market.

Lee identified three trades that could define the next rally:

Rotation back into the MAG 7

Potential bottom in the software sector (IGV), and

Crypto assets.

According to Lee, institutional data show software ownership at multi-decade lows, while MAG 7 stocks are cheaper relative to AI leaders than at any point in the past decade.

“Crypto drawdowns have already reached about 80% of previous crypto winter levels, setting up high-probability trade opportunities,” he said.

The software sector, particularly semiconductors, remains a key variable. Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report will likely set the tone for AI infrastructure trades and could either reinforce or dampen market optimism.

Lee suggested that software might be near a bottom, but cautioned that results from major players like Nvidia will be critical to sustaining any rally.

Consumer Strength and Defensive Sectors Could Cushion Market Pivot

Consumer discretionary stocks also show signs of resilience, providing support amid tech weakness. Jonathan Krinsky of BTIG highlighted strength in restaurants, airlines, and homebuilders, noting multiple technical breakouts underway.

With consumer confidence at contrarian lows, discretionary stocks may benefit from a broadening recovery, particularly as interest rates continue to ease.

Mortgage rates have fallen from nearly 8% to 6.17%, and the 10-year Treasury yield remains favorable, fueling demand across housing and services sectors.

Lee also explained why defensive sectors, including staples and healthcare, have outperformed recently.

“This is largely mean-reversion after three years of market gains,” he said. “Portfolios are de-risking temporarily, but the underlying bull market remains intact.”

The strategist articulated that the current market environment requires careful attention to positioning, earnings, and sector rotations.

While tech and AI narratives dominate headlines, he believes broader market breadth and overlooked sectors could lead the next leg higher.

Crypto, having experienced deep drawdowns, may even preempt broader market rallies, offering traders early opportunities.

As investors await Nvidia’s report and monitor software stabilization, Lee’s view suggests the market may be poised to pivot.

If the MAG 7 resumes its uptrend, software stabilizes, and discretionary strength continues, the S&P 500 could see a measured climb toward 7,300. This could set the stage for a broader rally across equity and digital asset markets.