$BTC
68,206.48
-1.61%
Price action has been very simple lately.
We are just waiting for a resolution of this range (the rectangle).
A break above $71.8K = bullish trend; a market rally is expected.
A drop below $62.6K = bearish trend; price could move toward $60K or lower.
One interesting thing: Bitcoin surged significantly following the Iran war-related news. Usually, and until recently, Bitcoin would drop sharply on uncertain or unconfirmed news.
This positive price movement despite uncertainty represents a behavioral shift and suggests that even unconfirmed news no longer has a bearish impact on Bitcoin’s price action.
I interpret this as a positive factor, possibly indicating that the market may be near a bottom—similar to what happened during the last bear market around November 2022, when FTX collapsed and the drop was not as severe as expected. That was because market sentiment was already extremely low, and the bottom was near (as we now know).
We might be in a similar situation now.
However, since the trend is still technically bearish, I remain cautious. Rather than speculating on direction, the wiser decision is to wait for a confirmed breakout above or below this range ($71.8K or $62.6K).