2025 marked an important milestone for the crypto market as Bitcoin set a new all-time high, surpassing $126,000, driven by strong ETF inflows and deeper participation from financial institutions.
Moving into 2026, the overall picture still shows several positive macro signals: expectations of monetary easing, continued institutional capital presence, and lingering effects from the halving cycle.
However, when looking more closely at the market structure, I believe Bitcoin is facing not only opportunities but also underlying risks that are quietly building up. These pressures could cause significant volatility and push the market away from the majority’s expectations. Below are five major threats that could impact Bitcoin in 2026 - from my personal point of view.
1. Risks from Bitcoin Treasury Companies
If we look back at major financial crashes in history, they rarely begin simply because prices fall. They usually explode when borrowing structures can no longer sustain themselves. Leverage accelerates growth in favorable conditions, but it also accelerates collapse when trends reverse.
In this current crypto cycle, a new form of leverage has emerged through publicly listed companies holding Bitcoin as a treasury asset. This model was strongly promoted by Michael Saylor and Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), opening the door for traditional capital to flow directly into crypto.
The issue is not that they buy Bitcoin, it’s how they buy it. Much of it involves debt financing or equity issuance. When Bitcoin rises, the structure works perfectly: stock prices often increase faster than BTC, enabling companies to raise more capital and buy even more.
But if the market reverses, this structure can backfire. Falling Bitcoin prices can send their stocks lower, freeze capital access, and increase debt pressure. In a worst-case scenario, forced
$BTC sales to manage liquidity could trigger a chain reaction similar to the 2008 financial crisis or the collapse of Terra (
#LUNA ) in 2021.
My concern is that this model has never been truly stress-tested in a deep global recession.
2. Selling Pressure from Miners and Supply Chain Risks
The Bitcoin mining industry is facing dual pressure:
The April 2024 halving cut block rewards in half.Mining companies significantly increased debt to invest in new-generation ASIC machines.
This model only works well when Bitcoin prices remain high. If prices drop sharply, indebted miners may be forced to sell BTC to repay loans, becoming a significant source of supply in the market.
Additionally, many mining firms are diversifying into AI to secure more stable revenue streams. This suggests Bitcoin mining is no longer their sole priority.
There’s also supply chain risk. Most ASIC hardware production depends on China, advanced chips are manufactured by TSMC, and EUV lithography technology is largely dependent on ASML. Any disruption due to geopolitical tensions or natural disasters could impact hashrate and network security.
3. The Quantum Computing Threat
At present, I do not see quantum computing as a short-term threat. Reports, including those from Grayscale Investments, suggest that the probability of quantum computers affecting Bitcoin in 2026 is nearly zero.
Bitcoin is currently protected by ECDSA encryption, which remains secure against classical computers. Breaking it would require an enormous number of logical qubits something still far beyond current capabilities.
However, financial markets react more to narratives than probabilities. If headlines emerge about “quantum breakthroughs threatening Bitcoin,” psychological reactions could outweigh technical reality.
Bitcoin has successfully implemented major upgrades such as SegWit and Taproot. I believe the community can adapt again if necessary. Still, sentiment risk remains unpredictable.
4. The AI Bubble and Spillover Effects
Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether, has warned that an AI bubble could become a significant risk factor for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s correlation with tech stocks especially AI-related companies has increased. When stocks like Nvidia or Advanced Micro Devices correct sharply, Bitcoin often reacts as well.
The “Magnificent 7” Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet Inc., Amazon, Meta Platforms, Tesla, and Nvidia represent a substantial portion of U.S. market capitalization. If AI enthusiasm fades, capital outflows from tech could spill over into crypto.
In my view, this is an indirect but very real risk, as Bitcoin is no longer fully detached from traditional markets.
5. Macro Risks and Global Liquidity
Bitcoin has become increasingly sensitive to monetary policy, inflation, and interest rates. JPMorgan Chase estimates a roughly 35% probability of a U.S. and global recession in 2026.
In past crises, the Federal Reserve aggressively cut rates and injected liquidity to support risk assets. But if inflation remains elevated, policymakers may have limited room to ease.
Research by Lynn Alden suggests Bitcoin moves in the same direction as global M2 money supply most of the time. When liquidity expands, BTC tends to perform well. When liquidity contracts, risk assets face pressure.
By late 2025, Bitcoin showed a high correlation with the Nasdaq during corrections. This suggests BTC increasingly behaves like an asymmetric risk asset quick to drop during downturns, but not always matching equity gains during recoveries.
Final Thoughts
These risks do not mean Bitcoin will collapse. The network continues to function as designed, adoption is growing, and institutional participation remains strong.
But in my personal view, 2026 could be a year of both opportunity and challenge. The key is not to be overly bearish or blindly bullish, but to stay clear-headed, adapt to market conditions, and maintain solid risk management at all times.
#creatorpadvn $BNB @Binance Vietnam