Mr SiDhO

SOL/USDT(4 August 2025) Technical Analysis , Price Prediction and Trade Plan
$SOL
📌 Key Indicators & Current Context
1. 💰 Price & Trend
Current Price: $162.92 🟢 (+1.46% in 24h) – holding critical support
Pivotal moment ⚠️
Trading below EMA(7) ($167.57) and EMA(25) ($171.49) → short-term bearish ❌
Holding above EMA(99) ($162.49) by $0.43 – last line of defense
⚔️ Make-or-break: Daily close < $162.49 signals major breakdown
2. 📈 Momentum & Volatility
Oversold RSI(6): 32.02 🟥 – bounce territory approaching
Stochastic RSI: 5.35 > 2.57 – early bullish momentum building 🔄
Severe volume collapse ⚠️
Current VOL: 438.9K SOL is 82% below MA(5) (2.38M) – seller exhaustion probable
3. 🛠 Support & Resistance
🔻 Critical Support:
$162.49 (EMA99)
$162.00 (psychological)
$133.68 (2025 low)
🔺 Resistance Ladder:
$164.14 (immediate)
$167.57 (EMA7)
$171.49 (EMA25)
$179.33 (swing high)
$206.30 (2025 peak)
4. 🧠 Market Sentiment
Layer 1 narrative – Solana’s reputation tied to ETH/BTC
Low volume = lack of conviction in either direction
---
📈 Price Prediction
⏳ Short-Term (6–12h)
🎯 High-probability bounce to $164.14–$167.57
✅ Strong Volume: Break above $167.57 targets $171.49
❌ Weak Volume: Rejection likely back to $162.00
🕰 Medium-Term (24–48h)
🟢 Bullish Scenario: Daily close >$167.57 → path to $179.33–$206.30 (+10–26%)
🔴 Bearish Scenario: Close <$162.49 triggers crash to $133.68–$100.00
📅 Long-Term Bias
Bearish below EMA(7); recovery requires reclaiming $171.49
---
🧪 Trade Plan
✅ Scenario 1: EMA(99) Reversal Play (Optimal)
Trigger: 15m close >$163.50 + RSI(6) >35
Entry: $162.60–$163.00
🎯 Targets:
TP1: $164.14 (0.7%)
TP2: $167.57 (2.8%)
TP3: $171.49
⛔ Stop Loss: $161.80
Rationale: Oversold bounce + volume capitulation signal
⚡ Scenario 2: Breakdown Hedge (High-Risk)
Trigger: 1h close <$162.49 + volume >1M SOL
Entry: $162.00–$162.30
🎯 Target:
TP1: $133.68 (–17.7%)
⛔ Stop Loss: $163.50
---
🛡 Risk Management
Position Size: ≤1.5% of capital 💼
Risk-Reward: 1:5 (e.g., $0.50 risk → $2.50 reward)
Confirmation Tools:
Volume >800K SOL on breakout 📈
Stochastic RSI >10 🟢
---
🧠 Conclusion
Immediate Bias: Cautiously bullish – expect bounce from EMA(99) support 🟢
Key Levels:
🟥 Bullish Invalidation: Close < $162.00
🟩 Bearish Invalidation: Close > $167.57
✅ Optimal Action Plan
1. Enter long at $162.70 (80% position)
2. Add 20% if 15m candle closes >$163.50
3. Exit 50% at TP1 ($164.14) & trail stop to breakeven 🛡
---
🔔 Catalysts to Watch
⚠️ Solana network performance (downtime risk)
🐸 Meme coin activity on Solana (volume driver)
📉 Bitcoin dominance under 52% (altcoin rally signal)
---
⚠️ Key Risk Note
EMA(99) at $162.49 = last line of defense for bulls.
👉 Reduce position by 50% if volume <500K SOL during bounce attempts.
---
📌 Always trade with a stop-loss and never overexpose in volatile conditions.
TRADE FROM HERR
👉#solana #sol #sol板块 #SolanaStrong #SOLUSDT $SOL $BTC

It could save you 10 years of pain.
Forget the fancy indicators for a moment. Let’s talk about the one thing that has saved my account more times than I can count — MACD divergence.
I’ve been wrecked before. Three liquidations. 8 million gone. I’ve watched markets rip faces off in real time.
But I’ve also watched something quietly whispering the truth while everyone else was screaming “moon.”
Back in 2021, $BTC at $69,000… my account was up 4M unrealized. Everyone in the group chat was drunk on euphoria, shouting for $100K. But I stared at the #MACD … and those red bars were shrinking like a dying heartbeat. Price was making new highs, but the bars were half the size of the week before.
At 3 a.m., I remembered how I got liquidated in 2018 watching $ETH at $4,800 while the bars deflated. I closed everything.
Next day? #BTC nuked. 58% down.
I heard the cries of people losing everything while I was safe.
👉 That’s the power of divergence.
When the market’s lying to you with price, those volume bars are whispering the truth.
Fast forward —#LUNA✅ crash in 2023. Whole market screaming “Ponzi,” but on the weekly chart? Price made a new low, but the green bars were 60% shorter. That’s bottom divergence. Quietly, whales were scooping. I built my position in three tranches while everyone else panic sold. RWA narrative comes in later — boom, 3M recovered.
🚨 Top divergence: new price high + volume bar shrinking = time to run.
🚨 Bottom divergence: new price low + volume bar shrinking = time to buy.
And don’t get me started on the golden cross trap. Most people FOMO into the first cross and get slaughtered. The real move is the second golden cross, confirmed across timeframes with surging on-chain flows. That’s when you strike.
I’ve learned brutal lessons:
✅ When price makes new highs but volume bars are only 70% of the last peak — use a three-step stop-loss. Cut 1/3 on 30m breakdown, 1/3 on 15m, and escape completely on 5m.
✅ Watch the whales. If you see a top divergence AND a 5M+ outflow, don’t think, just cut.
✅ Respect bottom divergence when everyone’s terrified. That’s where fortunes are built.
Eight years. Eight iron rules. Written in blood.
People laugh at MACD. Let them.
Those tiny bars saved my life — and they might save yours too.
Trade smart. Survive first. Then thrive
#BNBATH #CryptoScamSurge $BTC

24 يوليو 2025 - يشهد سوق العملات المشفرة تراجعًا ملحوظًا اليوم، مما يجعل الرسوم البيانية عبر الأصول الرقمية الرئيسية تتلون بالأحمر الفاتح. يأتي هذا التصحيح وسط نشاط مؤسسي كبير، مما يثير تساؤلات حول ما إذا كانت هذه "هزة" قصيرة الأمد أم مقدمة لتحول سوقي أكبر.
تصفية فيديليتي وتدفقات أوسع لصناديق ETF
أحد المحركات الرئيسية التي تم تحديدها لتراجع السوق اليوم هو حركة "الأموال الذكية"، وخاصة من اللاعبين المؤسسيين الكبار. بينما يمكن أن تتقلب الأرقام المحددة، تشير التقارير إلى أن صناديق البيتكوين المتداولة في البورصة (#ETHETFS ) تشهد تدفقات خارجة، بما في ذلك تلك التي تديرها شركات كبيرة مثل فيديليتي. تتماشى هذه المبيعات المؤسسية، حتى لو لم تكن بالضبط 1,910 BTC من فيديليتي بالذات اليوم، مع الاتجاه الأوسع للتدفقات الصافية الخارجة التي لوحظت في صناديق البيتكوين المتداولة في البورصة.

يا صديقي، ماذا حدث الآن؟ جيروم باول - رئيس الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأمريكي - أحدث ضجة في العالم المالي. أسعار الفائدة كما هي، لكن سوق الكريبتو تفاعل على الفور. دعني أخبرك ماذا حدث:

🔹 لا زيادة في الأسعار حالياً:
قرر الاحتياطي الفيدرالي عدم رفع أسعار الفائدة الآن. لكن عدم اليقين لا يزال موجوداً، يا أخي!

🔹 تعرض البيتكوين لصدمة:
$BTC بعد الإعلان، انخفض قليلاً، مما يدل على حساسية السوق تجاه إشارات الاحتياطي الفيدرالي.

🔹 مجموعة مختلطة من العملات البديلة:

📅 Date: July 22, 2025
🗣️ Speaker: Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve
📍 Event: Capital Framework Conference, Washington D.C.
🧠 Key Outcome from #PowellSpeech Speech:
* No Policy Change: The Fed remains cautious, prioritizing inflation monitoring over immediate rate cuts.
* Focus on Regulations: Speech primarily centered on bank regulations, with no hints of monetary easing.
* No Dovish Tone: No timeline for stimulus or easing was mentioned, indicating a continued hawkish stance.
🧨 How This Impacts Crypto:
* No Rate Cuts = Limited Fresh Liquidity:
Crypto markets typically benefit from abundant liquidity. Powell's lack of signaling for rate cuts suggests a less bullish short-term outlook for $BTC and altcoins.
* Uncertainty from Political Pressure:
President #bonaldtrum Donald Trump's recent comments about potentially replacing Powell if elected introduce political uncertainty, which can erode investor confidence and lead to hesitation in risk-on assets like crypto.
* Increased Pressure from #EFTvsBTC Outflows:
Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows today, reflecting the cautious sentiment post-speech. Reduced institutional buying could lead to further price dips.
🔮 Market Reaction So Far:
* $BTC briefly dipped below $117K.
* $ETH , SOL, and #BNB_Market_Update are showing weak momentum.
* Altcoins like PENGU and OM are primarily seeing scalping activity rather than strong directional trends.
✅ TL;DR:
Powell maintained a cautious stance, offering no immediate bullish catalysts for crypto. The market remains in a "wait-and-see" mode, with potential for increased volatility as macro and political developments unfold.
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