Crypto Talks

Right now most people think Bitcoin already bottomed at $60K.
And they are wrong.
That was likely just a local bottom, not the final cycle low.
Let’s break down what actually needs to happen before the real bottom forms.
LIQUIDITY: THE BIGGEST DRIVER
Every major crypto bottom in history has happened when U.S. liquidity starts expanding again. Right now the opposite is happening.
YoY liquidity growth in the U.S. is still negative. That means money is being drained out of the system, not added.
When liquidity is falling:
Crypto sells off first.
Stocks sell off too.
Risk assets stay weak.
We are seeing exactly that right now.
The liquidity being provided by the Fed is simply not enough compared to what markets need to turn bullish again.
This is also why:
- Corporate bankruptcies are rising.
- Consumers are defaulting on debt.
- Economic stress is building.
Until liquidity turns positive, a full market bottom is very unlikely.
MAYER MULTIPLE: NOT AT BOTTOM LEVELS YET
The Mayer Multiple shows whether Bitcoin is overbought or oversold compared to its long-term average. At previous cycle bottoms, this metric dropped below 0.6 every time. Right now it is around 0.67.
That means: the market is oversold… but not at historical bottom extremes. So again, more like a temporary bottom, not the final one.
LONG TERM HOLDER REALIZED PRICE
This is one of the most reliable bottom indicators. It shows the average price where long term holders bought their Bitcoin.
Historically, Bitcoin cycle bottoms form very close to this level. Right now this sits around $41K, and BTC is nowhere near it.
That gives us a very important clue:
The real bottom zone is likely somewhere near a long term holder cost basis.
MINING ELECTRICAL COST
Mining cost acts like a bear market floor. Currently, electrical production cost is around $57.5K.
But during bear phases, this cost usually drops 15–20%.
If that happens again:
Electrical cost falls to roughly $45K–$46K.
When multiple bottom indicators converge in the same zone, that zone becomes extremely important.
TECHNICAL + INSTITUTIONAL DEMAND ZONE
From a pure market structure perspective, the biggest demand area this cycle has been $45K to $50K.
Why this zone matters:
- ETFs were approved here.
- August 2024 crash bottom formed here.
- Institutions accumulated heavily here.
- Whale buying was strongest here.
This is the price range large players are most likely to defend.
THIS CYCLE IS NOT PLAYING OUT NORMALLY
There are major structural differences vs. past 4-year cycles: Bitcoin made a new ATH before the halving (never happened before).
Post-halving Q4, usually bullish, was negative this time.
Bitcoin started dropping earlier than expected. Many altcoins topped before Bitcoin’s ATH.
This tells us one thing:
This cycle is front-running expectations. So the bottom timing may also come earlier than people expect.
SO WHEN COULD THE BOTTOM FORM?
Most people are waiting for a classic Q4 bottom. But based on the current structure, the bottom could form earlier. Estimated window → August to September
Markets tend to front-run consensus timelines. So both price and time could bottom sooner than the majority expects.
PSYCHOLOGY AT THE BOTTOM
If Bitcoin enters $45K–$48K, you’ll start hearing calls for $30K, $25K, and even $20K.
Just like in November 2022: When BTC hit $16K, people called for $10K... $8K... $5K.
None of those levels ever came. Markets trap both sides.
So here’s the full picture:
Liquidity hasn’t turned positive yet. Onchain bottom signals aren’t fully hit. Mining cost floor sits lower. Institutional demand sits lower. Cycle structure is front-running.
This means:
The $60K move was likely just a local bottom.
The real cycle bottom is more likely below the $50K zone, possibly forming late summer to early fall, when liquidity conditions finally improve.
That’s the window where the market will fully reset before the next major expansion phase.

تم تفعيل انتعاش السوق بسبب بيانات التضخم الأكثر برودة

سوق العملات المشفرة يضيء بالأخضر اليوم حيث تجاوزت بيتكوين 70,000 دولار، وارتفعت إيثريوم بنسبة 6%، وارتفعت سولانا بنسبة 6.5%. المحفز؟ انخفض التضخم الأمريكي إلى 2.4% في يناير، أقل من التوقعات البالغة 2.5%.
لم يكن هذا مجرد تحرك في الأسعار. كانت إشارة. هدف التضخم لمجلس الاحتياطي الفيدرالي هو 2%. نحن الآن عند 2.4% ونتجه نحو الانخفاض. تُظهر أداة CME FedWatch احتمال 40% لتخفيض سعر الفائدة في اجتماع مارس، وهذه الاحتمالية تستمر في الارتفاع.
تاريخياً، تؤدي تخفيضات أسعار الفائدة من الفيدرالي إلى إشعال انتعاشات مشفرة انفجارية. هذا هو الإعداد الكلي الذي ينتظره الجميع.

انخفضت بيتكوين تحت 67,000 دولار. وانخفضت إيثريوم تحت 2,000 دولار. العملات الكبيرة تتراجع في جميع المجالات.

لذا فإن السؤال بسيط: هل الآن وقت جيد لشراء العملات المشفرة؟

إليك كيف ينظر الكثير من الناس إلى ذلك:
• يمكن أن تتعافى العملات الكبيرة، ولكن نظرًا لأنها ضخمة بالفعل، فإن الارتفاع يكون غالبًا أكثر مثل 2x–3x في دورة قوية.
• عادةً ما تبدأ الحركات الكبيرة في وقت مبكر، قبل الإدراجات والعناوين.

لهذا السبب بعض المشترين يشاهدون المبيعات المسبقة مرة أخرى، ومشروع واحد يتلقى الكثير من الاهتمام هو Pepeto (pepeto.io/).

Bitcoin may be down from its $126K high, but major analysts are not backing off.
Bernstein recently reaffirmed a $150,000 BTC target for 2026. ETF outflows remain modest, and wallet infrastructure is evolving with RGB integrations and improved validation layers.
The foundation looks strong.
But experienced traders know something important:

Large caps rarely deliver exponential gains once they mature.

That’s why early-stage presales often attract attention during consolidation phases.

Pepeto’s Position in February 2026

Pepeto is currently in presale at approximately $0.000000183 and has raised over $7M toward a $10M cap.

Unlike hype-only meme launches, Pepeto already has:
• Zero-fee swap demo
• Active staking
• Bridge in development
• Verified meme exchange planned
• Dual audits completed

All ecosystem activity is designed to route through $PEPETO, forming a structured demand loop tied to usage.

Why Early Phases Matter

Bitcoin moving from $68K to $150K would be strong.

But early-stage tokens operate on different math.

Historically, the largest meme gains occurred before listings, not after confirmation.

With the $10M cap approaching, Pepeto remains in its early phase. Once listings begin, presale pricing ends permanently.

The market question is simple:

Position early, or watch from the sidelines?

For more: www.pepeto.io