macd

لماذا "MACD" هو أفضل صديق للمبتدئين

معظم الناس يقومون بمسح مخططات MACD فقط بحثًا عن خطوط للتقاطع، على أمل الحصول على إشارة "شراء" أو "بيع" سحرية. لكن ماذا لو أخبرتك أن القوة الحقيقية لـ MACD ليست في الخطوط، بل في المساحة بينهما؟

تخيل أنك تقود، وسرعة سيارتك لا تظهر فقط سرعتك، بل أيضًا مدى تسارعك أو تباطؤك - هذه هي خط MACD الخاص بك، يقيس "سرعة" تغيير السعر!

🚗💨 خط الإشارة يشبه متوسطًا أكثر سلاسة لذلك التسارع، مما يساعدك على رؤية الاتجاه.

Bitcoin $BTC has just given one of the strongest long-term bearish technical signals:
the Monthly #MACD has officially crossed downward, creating a confirmed bearish divergence.
On a macro timeframe like 1M, this signal does not appear often — but whenever it does, it reshapes the entire market trend for many months ahead.

🔻 1. Monthly MACD Bearish Cross – What It Really Means
In the chart you provided:
• The MACD line (yellow) has crossed below the Signal line (purple).
• The histogram has flipped into the negative zone, expanding downward.
• This confirms a bearish divergence on the monthly chart.
The Monthly MACD is one of the most reliable indicators for Bitcoin’s major market cycles.
Historically, whenever this indicator turns bearish, it marks the start of a long corrective phase.

🔻 2. Historical Behavior of Monthly MACD Bearish Crosses (Explained in Words)
Instead of showing a table, here is how it happened throughout past cycles:
Cycle 1: 2014 – First Major Bear Market
In 2014, Bitcoin’s Monthly MACD turned downward after a long rally.
This signaled the end of the early bull run and the beginning of a full-scale bear market.
Following the cross, Bitcoin entered a deep, year-long decline where the price lost most of its prior gains.
This marked the first historical validation that a MACD monthly cross is not a short-term noise — it is a structural shift.
Cycle 2: 2018 – Post-2017 Peak Collapse
The next significant monthly bearish cross occurred after the 2017 all-time high.
Once the MACD crossed down in early 2018, Bitcoin fell sharply for several consecutive months.
The cross effectively confirmed the end of the euphoric peak and the transition into the 2018 crypto winter.
Prices continued to drop until late that year, proving again that the signal reliably warned about the macro reversal.
Cycle 3: 2022 – Liquidity Crisis and Market Breakdown
In 2022, the Monthly MACD crossed downward during the global liquidity tightening cycle.
This happened before the collapse of major crypto institutions and stablecoin depeggings.
After the cross, Bitcoin slid relentlessly for months, eventually reaching the lowest levels of that cycle.
It reaffirmed that when the Monthly MACD turns bearish, stronger selling pressure almost always follows.

🔻 3. What This Means for the Current 2025 Cycle
The bearish cross shown in your chart suggests:
• The current upward momentum has exhausted.
• Long-term buyers are slowing down.
• A deeper cycle correction is likely forming.
This signal rarely produces a “fake-out.”
Every major instance in Bitcoin’s history has preceded a prolonged or sharp decline.

🔻 4. Price Outlook Based on Technical Structure(
On the monthly chart:
Short-term (1–3 months):
• Likely continuation downward toward the 68k–64k zone.
Medium-term (3–6 months):
• High probability of testing deeper support around 48k–42k.
Long-term (6–12 months):
• Structure still supports a bullish continuation into the next halving phase,
but only after the correction phase completes.

🔻 5. Why This Is Happening – Macro Forces
Your earlier analysis matches perfectly:
• Major central banks (FED, ECB, BOJ) are quietly withdrawing USD liquidity.
• China is selling U.S. Treasuries to accumulate USD for trade.
• Stablecoin issuers continue minting, demanding more USD collateral.
This reduces global USD supply, which:
➡ Pulls money out of risk assets
➡ Strengthens USD
➡ Pushes Bitcoin and crypto lower
Even if the #FED hints at rate cuts, the macro liquidity tightening still dominates.

🔻 6. Strategy Notes
1. Do not FOMO buy during a confirmed monthly bearish divergence.
2. Wait for deeper corrections or base formation before re-entry.
3. Begin accumulation only when the Monthly MACD flattens or curls upward.

⭐ Conclusion
The Monthly MACD bearish cross is one of the strongest long-term reversal signals for Bitcoin.
Each time it appeared in history — 2014, 2018, 2022 — it predicted a multi-month market correction.
This cycle is showing the same pattern.

Disclaimer: This is just my personal prediction, I am not responsible for your investment. Be careful with your money.
$BTC #MACD #MA