#GLOBAL M2 LIED TO US!!!!!
Remember last year when M2 tracked
$BTC perfectly… until it didn’t? Yeah — I missed it too. But I think I’ve figured out what actually broke the correlation and why the next few months could look very strong for crypto.
The correlation ended around July. Global M2 kept rising, but crypto fell — and nobody could fully explain it.
Here’s what likely changed:
While global liquidity was rising, Japan M2 had been falling since around July (shortly after the April 2025 tariff shock). And this matters a lot — because Japan’s liquidity reflects deployable leverage (carry trade fuel), not just passive money supply.
Here’s why Japan M2 matters specifically:
Carry trade funding currency 🇯🇵 — Ultra-low
#Japanese rates make the yen a global funding currency. Investors borrow yen to lever into higher-yield assets. When Japan M2 expands, it often signals more cheap leverage entering global markets.
Largest external creditor nation 🌍 — Japan exports capital at massive scale. Changes in its money supply tend to show up in global asset flows, not just domestic demand.
Bank-driven liquidity system 🏦 — Unlike QE-heavy systems elsewhere, Japanese liquidity mainly flows through bank lending channels — the type most closely tied to risk-asset rallies.
Now with ~10-week lag, Japan M2 is turning up again 📈
Historically, that’s when risk assets begin accelerating 🚀
Check the chart: Japan M2 peaks (green) and troughs (red) line up closely with BTC cycle turns.
FOLLOW THE LEVERAGE, NOT THE HEADLINES.