Whales who have held BTC for less than 155 days currently have an average cost basis of $85.6K.
Looking at Bitcoin's cycles, the pattern is consistent: when price falls below the STH whale cost basis, bear season begins — when price reclaims and holds above it, bull season follows.
In the current bear cycle, this is the most critical resistance level to watch in my view. It was tested in January 2026, held as resistance, and Bitcoin subsequently dropped back to $60K.
Once price reclaims this level and holds, new whales will turn profitable — and that sentiment shift could be exactly what ignites the next bull rally.
Written by burakkesmeci