In this post, letâs break down how rate cuts and other big macro events price in before they happen â and how you can position smartly to stay ahead of the move. đ
---
đč Why Price Dips After âGood Newsâ?
If we all expect a rate cut and it actually happens⊠why does the market still dump?
Example â September 17th, 25bps cut. Everyone was hyped, yet price fell.
đ Reason: It was already priced in.
Markets usually pump 1â2 weeks before the expected event â then sell off once itâs confirmed.
---
đč Market Reaction Scenarios
Event Reaction Reason
No Change đŽ Hard Dump Expectations missed
25bps Cut đŽ Dump Already priced in
50bps Cut đą Pump Unexpected surprise
When a bullish event is expected, itâs often already in the charts before the announcement.
---
đč Expected vs Unexpected
Expected Events (Rate cuts, CPI, halving): price in before the event.
Unexpected Events (War, hacks, policy shifts): market reacts instantly.
---
đč How to Position đŒ
1ïžâŁ Start preparing 1â2 weeks early.
2ïžâŁ Check forecasts & Polymarket odds (majority bet = most likely).
3ïžâŁ If it plays out as expected â close position.
4ïžâŁ If something unexpected happens â hold/add.
5ïžâŁ If âno changeâ when a cut was expected â flip short.
---
â ïž Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your own research.
đ Whatâs your take? How do you position before FOMC events? Drop your thoughts below đ