$BTC The Fed Just Got Perfect Inflation Data - At the Worst Time
The latest U.S. inflation report delivered exactly what the Federal Reserve has been hoping for. February CPI came in at 2.4% YoY, right on expectations, while Core CPI cooled to 0.2% MoM, down from 0.3% in January. On paper, this suggests inflation pressure is finally easing.
But the timing couldn’t be worse.
These numbers reflect February’s economy, before geopolitical tensions escalated and before energy markets started reacting. Oil prices surged after the U.S.-Iran conflict, and the inflation shock from higher energy costs has not yet filtered into consumer prices.
At the same time, the labor market is showing cracks, with only 58K jobs added versus 126K expected and unemployment rising to 4.4%.
Now the Fed faces a difficult choice ahead of its March 18 meeting - cut rates based on outdated data, hold steady and risk tightening into a weakening economy, or signal future cuts without acting.
Whatever Powell decides next could move every market on the planet.
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