I’ve lost money chasing candles like this before. Big red momentum, emotions high, volume expanding, and I convince myself, “It’s obviously going lower.” I hit market short… and that’s exactly where the bounce starts. That lesson cost me more than once.
Looking at this 15m $AGLD chart, I don’t see opportunity in the drop. I see emotional positioning. Price rejected hard from 0.4396 and flushed down to the 0.34 area. Short-term structure is bearish — MA(7) under MA(25), price trading below short moving averages, and momentum clearly shifted. But experienced traders don’t make money on the obvious move. They make money on the reaction to it.
When a move like this happens, most retail traders do one of two things: They short the bottom out of fear. Or they long it because “it’s cheap now.”
Both are emotional trades.
What I’ve learned is simple: profit comes from controlled entries, not dramatic candles. If this wants to continue down, it will likely give a weak bounce first. That bounce — into the 0.365–0.375 area near short-term resistance — is where I’d pay attention. Not because it guarantees a drop, but because risk becomes defined. If it rejects there with weak upside momentum and forms another lower high, the short setup becomes structured. Entry near resistance. Stop above the recent swing high. Target back toward 0.335 or even 0.32. That’s logic. That’s math. That’s survival.
On the long side, I don’t touch it unless structure changes. That means reclaiming above 0.375, holding it, and forming a higher low on pullback. Without that, you’re not buying strength — you’re buying hope. And hope doesn’t pay.
One of the hardest habits I built was waiting. Not reacting. Letting price come to my zone. The market rewards patience far more than bravery. I stopped trying to predict and started managing invalidation. If my level breaks, I’m wrong. Small loss. Move on. If it respects the level, I scale.
The biggest shift in my trading came when I stopped asking, “Where is it going?” and started asking, “Where am I wrong?” That single change improved my results more than any indicator ever did.
Right now, this chart is momentum-driven. That doesn’t mean it must continue. It means the next bounce is critical. If buyers can’t reclaim structure, sellers stay in control. If buyers step in and hold reclaim levels, narrative shifts.
If you’re trading this, don’t copy signals. Build a plan. Define your invalidation before entry. Use at least 1:2 risk-reward. Never chase a candle just because it looks powerful.
I’m not trading the spike. I’m trading the mistake that comes after it.
