🚨 MACRO ALERT | FOMC Minutes Drop Today | Feb 18, 2026

Today the Fed releases the January FOMC meeting minutes. This is a volatility event for crypto — here's what to expect.

The Setup:

Powell already told us there's "no rush to cut rates." The question is whether today's minutes confirm that hawkish stance or hint at future cuts. With 92% probability already priced in for a March rate hold, the bar for a surprise is high.

Scenario 1 — Hawkish (more likely):

Minutes emphasize patience and inflation risks → selling pressure continues. This would reinforce the bearish trend already in play on both BTC and ETH. No change to the plan — rallies remain sell opportunities.

Scenario 2 — Dovish (less likely):

Minutes hint at concern over slowing growth → short-term relief rally possible. BTC could bounce toward $67,600–$67,800. ETH toward $1,985–$1,991. Both would still be short entries within the dominant downtrend.

The key context:

January CPI came in at 2.4% — below expectations and the lowest reading in over four years. That's fundamentally dovish. But markets have already adjusted. The only way crypto gets a meaningful bid is if the minutes are more dovish than the market expects — which is a high bar right now.

Bottom line:

Bearish bias stays regardless of the outcome. Hawkish minutes accelerate the move down. Dovish minutes give better short entries at higher levels. Manage your risk accordingly — volatility is coming either way.