đ¨ MARKET ALERT | Japan Rate Shock Incoming đŻđľđĽ
Bank of America signals the Bank of Japan may hike rates to 1.00% in April â a level not seen since the mid-1990s.
đ Why it matters:
⢠Japan is a cheap-money hub & major global holder
⢠Last time rates hit this zone:
â⢠1994: âGreat Bond Massacreâ wiped $1.5T from bonds
â⢠USD/JPY collapsed to ~79.75
â⢠Global stress stacked; cuts followed later
đĄ Transmission Mechanism:
⢠Japan holds $1.2T in U.S. Treasuries
⢠Rate hike triggers:
â⢠Yen carry trades unwind
â⢠Funding costs spike
â⢠Bonds wobble
â⢠Risk assets reprice fast
â ď¸ Bottom line:
Markets havenât fully priced this yet.
Tightening in a fragile system = fast, global reactions.
đ Watch closely: JPY, funding markets, bonds. This is where the first warning lights flash.