btcusd

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to have the worst month currently (February) since basically June 2022. On this analysis we bring you the SOTT (Signs Of The Times) Indicator that has accurately identified in the past BTC's confirmed Sell (red circles) and Buy (green circles) spots.
As you can see, since 2014, the confirmed Sell Signal of SOTT has been at the top of the orange curve and the confirmed Buy Signal when the purple shade switched color. The time rang between those has historically been (16 months 2014 Bear Cycle, 15 months 2018 Bear Cycle and 13 months 2022 Bear Cycle).
As a result, given that the most recent Sell Signal was in September 2025, the next confirmed Buy Signal should be around December 2026 (15 months). That matches very well the majority of the Bear Cycle bottom analyses we've conducted so far.
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A reported $117M sale in $BTC from BlackRock-linked investors has added fuel to short-term selling pressure. Moves of this size can trigger liquidation cascades and amplify volatility, especially when leverage is elevated.
That said, institutional capital tends to move in cycles. Profit-taking often precedes fresh accumulation phases. What looks like distribution today can become positioning for tomorrow.

The key now is whether demand steps in to absorb supply — or if momentum accelerates the downside before stabilization.

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Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) is consolidating inside a clear resistance and support range on the 4-hour chart. Price is currently near the lower boundary around $64,000, showing bearish pressure. Volume and MACD indicate weakening momentum. A breakout or breakdown from this zone could define the next major move.

We have shown how Bitcoin (BTCUSD) almost hit its 1W MA200 earlier this month, ushering Stage 2 of the current Bear Cycle that gradually, after another potential consolidation, will eventually lead to the Cycle bottom.
An overlooked, but very powerful historically, indicator relative to market bottoms is the CVDD (Coin Value Days Destroyed). An on-chain BTC indicator, it calculates the cumulative sum of "Coin Days Destroyed" (value-time destruction) as coins move from old to new hands, weighted by the USD value at transfer time.
So earlier in February, the price hit the shifted CVDD (black trend-line) and has since turned sideways. The actual CVDD (green trend-line) currently sits around $49000 but trending downwards.
It is interesting to mention that during the past three Cycles, the CVDD got hit twice (on each Cycle). 2022 twice, 2018, 2020 and 2015 twice. It also priced accurately the 2011 bottom. Given the similarities of the current (2026) Bear Cycle with 2022 in particular, there is no reason not to expect another double bottom event (e.g. April and October) by which time the CVDD would be closer to $40000. This aligns with a number of other accurate Cycle bottom indicators as we've shown before.
Key Aspects of CVDD to keep in mind:
- Purpose: It acts as a reliable support line for Bitcoin price floors, often signaling when the market is deeply undervalued.
- Components: It combines Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) with the USD valuation of transactions to track when long-term holders (old hands) sell to new investors.
- Formula & Calculation: The metric is derived by multiplying a ratio of cumulative CDD and market age by a factor of 6 million.
- Top Indicator: While primarily a bottom indicator, it is sometimes used in tandem with multipliers (e.g., 5x or 10x) to signal when the market is overheated.
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