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Institutional demand for Bitcoin leverage has plunged to a multi-year low.
The crypto market is currently suffering from a severe case of indifference, according to new data from the derivatives sector.
David Lawant, a prominent market analyst, has pointed to the collapsing premiums in Bitcoin futures as definitive proof that speculative appetite has completely evaporated.
In a post on X, Lawant stressed the CME Bitcoin basis typically acts as a key gauge of institutional demand for leverage, noting that the "carry" trade has all but vanished.
The "basis" refers to the difference in price between a Bitcoin futures contract and the underlying spot market. In a healthy, bullish market, futures trade at a premium (contango) as traders pay up for leverage.
Where's the carry? CME BTC basis is a great gauge for market apathy rn," Lawant wrote. "Constant-maturity basis is compressing across the curve to levels not seen since Oct '23."
The analysis offered by the expert shows that the market is currently displaying less demand for upside leverage than it did during some of the most chaotic market crashes of the last two years.
Traders are pricing in less demand for leverage now than they did during the "Liberation Day flush" of April 2025 and the "German/JPY unwind" of mid-2024.
This shows that the market has moved beyond fear and settled into deep apathy. Investors are not currently panic-selling, but they certainly aren't buying. This leaves the derivatives market with a "flatline" signal that hasn't been seen since the quiet accumulation phase of late 2023.
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XRP faces a weak derivatives market as traders increasingly pile into bearish positions.
XRP remains largely in bearish hands amid a 2% intraday drawdown to $1.45
Ripple (XRP) edges lower at the time of writing on Tuesday, from the daily open of $1.48, as headwinds persist across the crypto market. A short-term support is emerging at $1.45, but a buildup of bearish positions could further weaken the derivatives market and prolong the correction.
The overall technical structure remains mostly bearish despite the MACD recently confirming a buy signal.
Mixed outlook as XRP retail demand weakens
XRP is struggling to sustain its recovery, leading to volatile price fluctuations as retail interest wobbles. After the XRP futures Open Interest (OI) increased to $2.56 billion on Monday, it narrows to $2.53 billion on Tuesday, undermining last week’s optimism that propelled the price to $1.67 on Sunday.
OI remains significantly below the record high of $10.94 billion in July. As OI fades, traders close positions in droves and refuse to open new ones, leaving XRP vulnerable to market pressures and risk-off sentiment
CoinGlass data shows that traders are increasingly piling into short positions, suggesting a lack of conviction in XRP’s short-term bullish outlook. The OI-Weighted Funding Rate holds at -0.0078% on Tuesday, remaining in the negative region since Sunday. Without follow-through momentum, price fluctuations will persist amid an overall bearish trend.
XRP hovers above $1.45 while sitting well below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.72, the 100-day EMA at $1.93 and the 200-day EMA at $2.13. All three moving averages are descending, confirming a deteriorating technical structure and increasing the odds of prolonging the ongoing correction.
Technical outlook: Evaluating XRP market structure
The descending trend line from $3.66 (record high) would limit gains, with resistance seen near $2.10. Moreover, the Parabolic SAR indicator trails below the price at $1.21, offering initial support that, if lost, could extend the bearish sequence. On the other hand, the improving MACD momentum would favor a push toward Sunday's high at $1.67.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40.76 remains below the midline on the daily chart, tempering the upside despite a recent momentum shift when the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossed above its signal line on the same chart. The expanding green histogram bars may prompt traders to increase their exposure, especially if XRP defends a short-term support at $1.45, tested on Monday.
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As U.S. lawmakers consider limits on data and mining facilities because of energy usage, the industry wants to explain that their crypto worries are unfounded.
Mining bitcoin does take a tremendous amount of electricity. But the business model only works when that energy is particularly cheap — such as when it's provided by off-peak renewable sources — and can be given back at the times when it's most needed by the public, according to a report produced by Paradigm, which has miner Genesis Digital Assets in its investment portfolio.
The report, viewed by CoinDesk, disputes widely shared claims about bitcoin mining's energy use and waste issues by citing data that the sector actually uses about 0.23% of global energy and emits about 0.08% of the carbon. And the miners have to operate under a "break even price" per megawatt hour of electricity to enable profits.
This means that by its very nature, Bitcoin mining counter-balances the bulk of the average community’s energy consumption, bringing equilibrium to the grid — not strain," according to the report compiled by Justin Slaughter, vice president for regulatory affairs at Paradigm, and Veronica Irwin. "It is, in a word, bringing balance to our energy
Federal and state policy efforts are beginning to pile up that would seek to restrict data centers and digital mining operations, which could arguably fit under the "data center" definition in U.S. law. On Thursday, U.S. Senators Richard Blumenthal, a Connecticut Democrat, and Josh Hawley, a Missouri Republican, introduced a bill to stop data centers from pushing up electricity costs for consumers, though the legislative text doesn't explicitly mention bitcoin or crypto. New York state lawmakers have similarly been pursuing a data-center moratorium.
Artificial intelligence (AI) and cryptomining are fueling a rising demand for energy driven by massive, energy-intensive data centers," several Democratic U.S. senators wrote in a November letter to the chief of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission that asked for "immediate action" to protect consumers.
In Canada, British Columbia said in October it planned to halt new crypto mining operations from its energy grid.
The Paradigm report countered, "Bitcoin miners who use energy that would otherwise go to waste, or who participate in state-led programs to give energy control agencies more control over the grid, should be rewarded for their good behavior."
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