usdollar

The EUR/USD pair is staging a notable recovery this Monday, climbing away from the one-month lows we saw on Friday. As the trading week kicks off, investors are eyeing the mid-1.1800s as the US Dollar feels the heat from a mix of trade tensions and economic cooling. 📉💹

📉 Why the US Dollar is Retreating
The "Buck" is facing a double whammy of bad news that has traders hitting the sell button:

Trade Turmoil: Despite a judicial setback from the Supreme Court, President Trump has signaled a new 15% tariff framework. This has sparked fresh fears of an economic slowdown due to rising global trade friction. 🏗️⚠️

GDP Stagnation: The latest data shows the US economy slowed sharply at the end of 2025, hitting an annualized growth rate of just 1.4%—well below the 4.4% seen in the previous quarter. 🐢📊

Fed Pivot: While inflation remains "hot," the weak GDP growth is fueling bets that the Federal Reserve will stay on hold in March and potentially begin cutting rates by June. ✂️🏦

💶 The Euro’s Path Forward
The Euro has capitalized on the Dollar’s weakness, rising to the 1.1835 area. However, it’s not all clear skies for the shared currency:

Political Uncertainty: Lingering questions surrounding ECB President Christine Lagarde’s tenure continue to hang over the market. 🏛️❓

EU Retaliation: The European Parliament is considering freezing trade deal ratifications with the US until more policy details emerge, adding another layer of geopolitical complexity. 🧊🤝

⚖️ Market Outlook: A High-Stakes Balancing Act
While the recovery is strong, the pair remains caught between technical momentum and fundamental risks. Investors are carefully weighing the US inflation data against the clear signs of economic deceleration. For now, the path of least resistance for $EUR /USD seems to be upward, provided the USD remains under pressure. 📈⚖️

Key Levels to Watch:

Support: 1.1740 – 1.1750 region

Resistance: Mid-1.1800s

#EURUSD #ForexMarket #CurrencyTrading #Euro #USDollar

$EUR

China is slowly but strategically restructuring its foreign reserves.
The People’s Bank of China is steadily increasing its gold holdings while reducing exposure to U.S. Treasuries 🪙📉
Scrolling through social media, we already know the dollar isn’t “falling apart” yet. But behind the scenes, a massive “game” is underway! China (the Dragon) is quietly rearranging its assets, signaling it no longer wants to rely solely on paper dollars. 🤨
Today’s breakdown: China’s “Golden Strategy” and its breakup with U.S. bonds! 🍿👇
💔 1. Toxic Relationship with U.S. Bonds? (The Great Dumping) 🇺🇸📉

China used to be America’s largest creditor, holding massive amounts of U.S. debt. Recently, however, China is saying— “Enough, time to keep some distance!”

They are selling U.S. Treasury Bonds gradually. Why? After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S. froze Russia’s dollars. China is thinking: “What if the same happens to us?” This is risk management—a smart move to protect their assets 🛡️
🪙 2. Gold: The Silent Weapon (The Gold Rush!) 🥇✨

If reducing dollars, then what is China increasing? Pure gold! Over the past years, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has been aggressively buying gold.

Why gold? No government can print it, and nobody can devalue it overnight. China is building a safety net: a reserve structure that remains strong no matter global political turbulence. In a crisis, gold is their trump card! 🃏
🏗️ 3. Is this a warning for the dollar? ⛈️

Many assume: “Dollar is doomed!” Hold your horses 🐎—it’s not that simple.
Scale: The U.S. bond market is huge; China selling some won’t crash it.Interdependence: China can’t dump everything, because a falling dollar would devalue their own assets. It’s like two rivals in the same boat 🚣‍♂️
🧩 4. The Real Game (The Strategic Shift) 🗺️

China is building a “safety net.” They want the global economy to be less Washington-centric. By accumulating gold, they aim to strengthen the yuan. If they push the yuan as a global currency in the future, it will need solid backing—gold being the ideal support 💎
💡 Key Lesson for Us:

China teaches: “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket!” Diversifying savings and investments is smart. Right now, China is reducing dollars and focusing on gold and other assets 📊

🗣️ Your Take:

Can the Dragon challenge the Eagle (USA) with gold? Or is breaking the dollar’s dominance a “Mission Impossible” for China? 🧗‍♂️
Comment below and test your economic sense! 👇🔥
#USDOLLAR #Economy2026 #GoldStandard #USATreasury #FinancialFreedom #chinavsusa
📚 Source:
JIKO_99
Body_Mind_Money_Economy_Future | SmartThinking | GlobalStrategy
22 February 2026
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@欧吉巴克 @Square-Creator-453834bca5237

Last night I was reading a thread about Russia possibly shifting back toward dollar based settlements. Many people instantly said this is bad for gold. Bad for stocks. Bad for crypto.

But markets are not that simple.

For the past few years the big narrative was de dollarization. Countries reducing reliance on the US dollar. Buying gold. Selling treasuries. Creating alternative trade systems. That story helped gold rally. It also supported Bitcoin because when trust in fiat drops people look for alternatives.

Now imagine that story starts reversing.

If major economies move back toward the dollar, global USD demand increases. When demand increases price strengthens. And historically when the dollar gets strong, risk assets feel pressure.

This is where things get interesting.

When global trade flows shift toward the dollar, liquidity tightens outside the US. Emerging markets feel stress first. Commodities slow down. Speculative assets become unstable.

Gold usually performs best when people fear currency debasement. If the dollar regains strength, that fear reduces. That can slow gold momentum.

Bitcoin is slightly different.

Bitcoin is no longer only an inflation hedge. It behaves like a liquidity asset. When global liquidity expands, Bitcoin runs. When liquidity tightens sharply, Bitcoin reacts.

But here is the part most people ignore.

A stronger dollar can also mean stability. If inflation cools because energy supply improves and global tensions reduce, then the Federal Reserve becomes less aggressive. That removes policy fear from markets.

Lower inflation plus policy clarity is not always bearish.

Short term markets may panic. Long term they adjust.

Gold could struggle if real yields rise and inflation falls. Stocks might dip if dollar spikes quickly. Crypto could see volatility if liquidity tightens fast.

But if certainty improves and recession fears decline, risk assets usually recover.

Look at history. In 2023 Bitcoin rallied despite rate hikes. Markets price future conditions, not current headlines. Traders focus on direction of policy, not just level of rates.

If inflation falls and the Fed signals stability, capital rotates back into growth assets.

Now think about psychology.

Macro headlines create instant fear. Social media amplifies that fear. People assume worst case scenario. They overreact.

The first move after a headline is emotional. The second move is structural.

If the dollar spikes aggressively, expect short term pain.
If the dollar strengthens gradually with falling inflation, markets may stabilize quicker than expected.

Gold depends heavily on instability narrative.
Crypto depends on liquidity and adoption narrative.
Stocks depend on earnings and economic confidence.

They are connected but not identical.

Another key factor is capital rotation.

Money does not disappear. It moves. If metals weaken, funds rotate into equities. If equities overheat, capital may shift into crypto. Institutional money follows risk adjusted return.

So is a stronger dollar good or bad

Short term it often pressures risk assets.
Medium term it depends on inflation and policy.
Long term adoption trends matter more than currency headlines.

For gold this shift could be heavier because its strength relies strongly on debasement fear.
For crypto it could mean volatility but not necessarily structural damage.
For equities it depends on earnings growth versus dollar pressure.

The real mistake is reacting emotionally.

Instead of asking will gold crash or will crypto die, ask these questions

Is inflation cooling
Is the Fed becoming less hawkish
Is liquidity stabilizing
Is global uncertainty declining

Those factors matter more than a single geopolitical shift.

Markets move in cycles of fear and clarity.

Right now the debate creates fear. But clarity creates opportunity.

Strong dollar does not automatically kill crypto. It does not automatically destroy stocks. It changes flow dynamics.

If stability increases, the mid to long term setup for risk assets can actually improve after initial volatility.

That is why I never chase first move. I watch structure.

And in markets structure always speaks louder than headlines.
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#USDOLLAR #DXY #bitcoin #GOLD #CPIWatch

Financial markets are bracing for the upcoming Federal Reserve’s June FOMC meeting, but hopes for a rate cut have nearly vanished. The odds of the Fed lowering rates have dropped to just 0.1%, signaling near-unanimous market belief that rates will remain unchanged.

🔹 Probability of Steady Rates? 99.9%
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors are overwhelmingly betting that the target range will stay between 425 and 450 basis points. This sentiment is echoed by Polymarket, where traders have drastically shifted expectations. In May, there was still a 9% chance of a cut, but that has now shrunk to almost zero.

🔹 Labor Market & Inflation Data Crush Expectations
Recent strong U.S. job data and persistently high inflation have convinced the Fed there's no reason to rush. According to the latest FOMC minutes, central bankers remain extremely cautious, while monitoring both geopolitical and fiscal developments — including Trump’s tariffs.

🔹 Trump Pushes Aggressively for Cuts
While the Fed remains on hold, calls for cuts are growing louder. Donald Trump is demanding an immediate 100-basis-point rate cut, calling it rocket fuel for the economy. In his usual style, he lashed out at Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling him a “disaster.”
Trump also hinted that he may soon replace the Fed Chair. According to Polymarket betting odds, the leading candidate to succeed Powell is Kevin Warsh, a former member of the Fed’s Board of Governors.

Even with mounting political pressure, the market consensus is clear: a June rate cut is highly unlikely. For now, all eyes are on upcoming CPI inflation data, which could determine whether the Fed shifts its stance before summer ends — or if rate changes will be postponed until fall.

#Fed , #JeromePowell , #centralbank , #worldnews , #USDOLLAR

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