silver

Silver climbed to around $79 per ounce on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session, as the broader metals market rebounded even as the dollar rallied on robust US economic data and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. Minutes from the Fed’s January meeting revealed a split among policymakers, with some signaling that rate cuts would be appropriate if disinflation continues, while others favored keeping rates elevated longer and even highlighted the possibility of further tightening should inflation remain persistent. Traders slightly trimmed expectations for Fed rate cuts this year but still anticipate two 25 basis point reductions before year-end. Silver and other precious metals were further supported by rising geopolitical tensions, as the US increased its military presence in the Middle East amid concerns of potential conflict with Iran, and peace talks between Ukraine and Russia concluded without a breakthrough. less
2026-02-19
Silver Extends Momentum
Silver rose above $77.2 per ounce, extending gains as investors digested the January FOMC minutes and maintained expectations for rate cuts later this year. The minutes revealed a divide within the Federal Reserve, with several participants indicating cuts would be appropriate if disinflation contin... more
2026-02-18
Silver Rises Ahead of Fed Minutes
Silver rose above $75 per ounce on Wednesday, reversing losses from the previous session, amid dip-buying interest and positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes. Markets continue to price in multiple rate cuts later this year, a backdrop generally viewed as supportive for no... more
2026-02-18
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#silver #Market_Update

What seems to be a price breakout, in reality, is a structural fracture in the global metals market.
Silver $XAG has crossed $80.
But the real story is what forced it there.
I. Silver Above $80: A Structural Break, Not a Spike
At the time of recording, silver officially cleared the $80 level and is trading around $81.
Context matters:
Silver previously peaked at $120.It then corrected 47% to $64.And within just three weeks, it reclaimed $80.
That is not normal price behavior.
That is absorption.
The next critical threshold lies at $85–86.
If price sustains above that zone, $100 becomes a magnet — not because of speculation, but because there is minimal technical resistance left in that range.
This is not a rally.
It is re-pricing.
II. The Bullion Dealer Shock: Physical Demand Is Exploding
A major bullion dealer in Singapore reported numbers that do not resemble a typical cycle.
January 2026 revenue: Over 350 million SGD in a single month.
Physical volume: More than 65 tonnes of silver sold across December and January — over 2 million ounces.
But the real signal is structural:
Last year, silver accounted for 25% of revenue.This year, it accounts for 50%.And clients tripled purchases at all-time highs — not on dips.
This is not retail chasing weakness.
This is capital securing allocation.
Conditions on the ground:
$5,000 minimum order thresholds.Eight-hour physical queues.Refinery capacity fully booked through April.
When supply chains tighten while price rises, the message is clear:
This is not sentiment-driven. It is inventory-driven.
III. The Quiet Short Squeeze Behind the Curtain
What appears to be a breakout is actually the visible edge of a much larger financial confrontation.
During Thanksgiving, 13 million ounces of silver $XAG were withdrawn from COMEX registered inventories — at the exact moment the exchange experienced unexplained technical disruptions.
That was not coincidence.
That was positioning.
Meanwhile, Chinese industrial entities — long accustomed to sub-$30 silver — were caught structurally short as prices accelerated.
To secure physical supply, they attempted to source metal from COMEX.
They were refused immediate delivery.
Instead, they faced delays — or were forced to purchase elsewhere at substantial premiums.
This created a two-tier pricing structure:
COMEX paper price: $55Average realized physical price for miners: ~$70Premium paid by desperate buyers: up to $10/ozEffective divergence: ~26%
That spread is not noise.
It is stress.
Paper markets are quoting one reality.
Physical markets are clearing another.
IV. Silver as a Strategic Asset — Not Just a Metal
In 2025, the United States officially designated silver as a Critical Mineral.
That was not symbolic.
It was strategic.
A proxy resource conflict is unfolding between the world’s two largest economies.
On one side:
U.S.-aligned bullion banks accumulating.Supply flows increasingly redirected from Latin America toward North America.
On the other:
Chinese industrial demand under pressure.Urgent need for physical silver to sustain electronics and solar manufacturing.
Silver is no longer just a commodity.
It is an industrial choke point.
V. Why This Is Not 2011
The comparison to 2011 is structurally flawed. Five differences matter:
Persistent Supply Deficits
The market has run deficits for five consecutive years. London and Shanghai inventories are visibly thinning.Strategic Recognition
Silver now holds official critical mineral status.Paper–Physical Divergence
The spread between quoted futures prices and real physical clearing prices is widening.Speculation Has Not Peaked
The $120 spike appears less like a top — and more like a rehearsal.Institutional Sovereign Participation
The largest financial institutions are directly accumulating physical supply — not merely facilitating retail speculation.
This cycle is state-aware and institutionally driven.
Conclusion: $80 Is Not a Ceiling. It Is a Platform.
The short positions have not fully resolved.
Physical demand continues to intensify.
Inventory remains structurally tight.
Silver at $80 does not represent exhaustion.
It represents compression before expansion.
If $85–86 holds, the path toward $XAG $100 is not speculative — it is structural.
This is not incremental upside.
It is regime transition.
And what appears quiet is not weakness.

🔔 Insight. Signal. Alpha.

Hit follow if you don’t want to miss the next move!
This is personal insight, not financial advice.
#Silver #XAG #LunarNewYear

Silence should not be mistaken for weakness.
It is transfer.
Ownership is moving — from reactive hands to structural capital.
I. Market Context: The Silence Before Expansion
As of February 19, 2026:
Silver: $78.30
Gold: $5,333
Online discourse has cooled. Retail participation has faded. Volatility has compressed.
This is not market death.
It is loading.
Historically, the most powerful advances begin during periods of reduced noise — when weak hands exit and institutions accumulate size without premium distortion.
Price is stable.
Volume is controlled.
Sentiment is muted.
That is not exhaustion.
That is positioning.
II. Silver’s Technical Structure: Inverse Head and Shoulders
Silver $XAG is forming a classical reversal structure — not speculative, but structural.

Left Shoulder
January 30, 2026
Price collapsed from $121.79 to $74.
Volume: 317,240 contracts.
This was forced liquidation.
Paper pressure.

Head
February 6, 2026
Price printed $63.90 intraday — then reversed sharply to $76.90 within the same session.
That reversal was not technical noise.
It signaled physical absorption.
Paper selling was met with real demand.

Right Shoulder
February 12, 2026
Low formed at $74.37 — higher than the left shoulder.
Sellers failed to create a new low.
Exhaustion is visible.
Volume Compression
Peak volume: 317,000 contracts.
Recent sessions: ~28,000 contracts.
Less than 9% of peak.
Selling pressure no longer has force.
The market is no longer responding to aggressive paper supply.
III. Five Confirmation Signals the Accumulation Phase Is Near Completion
1. Retail Normalization – APMEX
APMEX CEO confirms shipping times and customer service have returned to normal.
Translation:
Panic buyers have exited.
When retail frenzy disappears, institutions accumulate quietly — without pushing premiums to unsustainable levels.
Calm retail conditions often precede institutional expansion.

2. Institutional Price Targets Are Moving Higher
Goldman Sachs:
Gold $XAU $5,400 by end of 2026 — with “significant upside risk.”
JP Morgan:
Base case: $6,300
Bull scenario: $8,000–8,500
These are not speculative blogs.
They are allocation signals.

3. Mainstream Media as a Contrarian Indicator
Recent negative coverage from major outlets and Bank of America.
Historical precedent:
September 2022 — at $1,600 gold was declared “no longer a safe haven.”
From that level, gold advanced 213%.
Media skepticism often appears near structural inflection points.

4. Tether’s Gold Position and COMEX Inventory Stress
Tether now holds 148 tons of gold (~$23.8B).
An entity representing dollar liquidity is diversifying into hard assets.
That is not cosmetic.
It is balance-sheet signaling.
Meanwhile:
COMEX registered silver inventory has declined ~75% since 2020.
In December, 57% of inventory was withdrawn in just four trading days.
Physical tightness is not theoretical.
It is measurable.

5. Scotia Bank and Central Bank Flows
Scotia Bank:
“The bull cycle is not over.”
Central banks have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually for four consecutive years.
If global portfolio allocation to gold increases by just 0.5%, price models suggest $6,000 becomes mathematically consistent.
This is not retail enthusiasm.
This is sovereign allocation.
IV. Key Silver $XAG Levels to Monitor
$63.90
The strongest physical floor.
$74.37
Right shoulder low.
If this holds, the bullish structure remains intact.
$84–$88
Neckline zone.
A high-volume break above this range transitions silver into a new price regime.

Conclusion
We are likely in the final phase of accumulation.
Paper pressure has lost dominance over physical demand.
When that dynamic flips, price does not rise gradually.
It gaps.
Vertically.
The opportunity window during accumulation is quiet.
The expansion phase is not.
For now:
The structure favors holders of physical metal.
The signal is not noise-driven.
It is balance-sheet driven.
And balance sheets move markets.

🔔 Insight. Signal. Alpha.

Hit follow if you don’t want to miss the next move!
*This is personal insight, not financial advice.
#GOLD #Silver #JPMorgan