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XRP holds $1.40 support amid ETF inflows, weak derivatives market
institutional investor interest.
A weak derivatives market, with futures Open Interest dropping to $2.32 billion, may restrict XRP’s ability to sustain recovery
XRP attracts $4 million in spot ETF inflows on Thursday, signaling renewed institutional investor interest.
The remittance token’s short-term bullish outlook mirrors subtle intraday gains characterising major crypto assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
Ripple (XRP) is trading above a critical support at $1.40 at the time of writing on Friday, signaling stability ahead of a potential breakout toward the weekly open of $1.48.
XRP maintains stability as ETF inflows return
XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) attracted $4 million in inflows on Thursday, outpacing both Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs, which saw outflows of $166 million and $130 million, respectively.
The cumulative ETF inflows stand at $1.23 billion, and total assets under management have risen above $1 billion. Despite the mild increase on Thursday, overall sentiment remains shaky, considering net assets have declined from the record $1.65 billion seen in early January.
The XRP derivatives market paints a grimmer picture, with futures Open Interest (OI) falling to $2.32 billion on Friday from $2.45 billion the previous day. For context, retail interest peaked at an annual high of $4.55 billion on January 6, which was significantly below the OI record high of $10.94 billion reached in July.
Notably increased demand from retail traders indicates that investors are confident in XRP’s outlook and its ability to sustain an uptrend. Hence, traders should temper their expectations as futures OI continues to wane.Notably increased demand from retail traders indicates that investors are confident in XRP’s outlook and its ability to sustain an uptrend. Hence, traders should temper their expectations as futures OI continues to wane.
Technical outlook: XRP holds key support, eyes on a potential breakout
XRP remains above support at $1.40 despite its upside appearing limited by the downward-sloping 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.69, the 100-day EMA at $1.90 and the 200-day EMA at $2.12.
The SuperTrend indicator on the daily chart holds above XRP, seemingly capping potential rebounds at $1.72. This indicator integrates the Average True Range (ATR) to gauge market volatility and highlight the overall trend.
Until the price rises above the SuperTrend and its colour turns green, the path of least resistance could remain adamantly downward. Subsequently, a daily close below the immediate $1.40 support may accelerate XRP downward toward the October 10 low at $1.25. The February 6 low sits slightly below at $1.12.
Still, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains above the signal line. At the same time, the green histogram bars expand, hinting at potential stability ahead of a breakout toward the weekly open at $1.48. Other key levels of interest to traders include Sunday’s high at $1.67 and the 50-day EMA at $1.69, which, if reclaimed, could mark a possibly bullish shift.
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Past capitulation waves have preceded sharp recoveries, but this time price is still fighting technical resistance even as ledger activity surges.
Realized losses measure actual losses, not paper drawdowns. They spike when holders capitulate, choosing to lock in losses rather than wait for a rebound. Unlike unrealized losses, which can vanish if price recovers, realized losses represent final decisions.
For realized losses to surge into the billions, there must be aggressive selling pressure, but there must also be buyers willing to take the other side. Large capitulation events often coincide with liquidity stepping in at lower levels. Historically, these moments tend to cluster near market bottoms because much of the weaker positioning gets cleared out in one move.
That absorption piece matters.
However, context is key. The 2022 spike came after a prolonged drawdown and broader crypto deleveraging. Today’s environment includes macro uncertainty, shifting regulatory narratives and still-elevated volatility across majors. A realized loss spike increases the probability that sellers are exhausted, but it does not eliminate macro headwinds.
When weak hands are flushed, the composition of holders shifts. The coins that change hands during capitulation typically move from short-term, emotionally driven traders to longer-term buyers with stronger conviction or better cost bases. That redistribution can create a more stable foundation for price.
Another variable to watch is follow-through. In prior cycles, sustained recoveries required not just a single capitulation print but stabilization in spot demand and declining sell pressure in the weeks that followed. If realized losses remain elevated or quickly re-accelerate, that would suggest distribution is not finished.
For now, the data points to emotional extremes. Historically, that has been fertile ground for rebounds. Whether it becomes a durable trend shift depends on what happens after the panic subsides.
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Small wallets have increased their BTC holdings by 2.5% since October's all-time high while large holders trimmed 0.8%, Santiment data shows.
The interesting bit is a developing split in coin ownership that could shape what happens next.
Data from Santiment shows the number of wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC, a level typically associated with retail investors, has increased by 2.5% since the largest cryptocurrency hit a record high in October. The growth has pushed the so-called shrimps' share of supply to its highest since mid-2024.
In practice, though, it's the larger holders known as whales and sharks who tend to set the tone for price direction. Those investors, with wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC, went the other way, dropping about 0.8%.
It's the kind of split that tends to produce choppy, frustrating price action rather than clean trends.
Retail provides a floor and can spark short-term momentum. Rallies that stick require bigger players who are prepared to buy whatever's on offer.
The divergence is especially notable because the picture looked different just a few weeks ago.
After bitcoin cratered toward $60,000 on Feb. 5 — a drawdown of more than 50% from its October peak — Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score climbed to 0.68, the strongest broad-based reading since late November, as CoinDesk reported earlier in the month.
Glassnode's metric measures the relative strength of accumulation across different wallet sizes by factoring in both entity size and the amount of BTC accumulated over the past 15 days. A score closer to 1 signals accumulation, while a score closer to 0 indicates distribution.
During the flash, the 10-to-100 BTC cohort was the most aggressive dip buyer, and the data suggested the market was shifting from capitulation into something more synchronized.
Santiment's wider lens complicates that reading. Its 10-to-10,000 BTC band captures a much broader slice of large holders than Glassnode's dip-buying cohort, and across that full range, net positioning since October is still negative.
One way to reconcile the two takes: mid-sized wallets may have genuinely bought the panic while the largest holders kept distributing into every recovery, dragging the aggregate number down.
It matters because bitcoin doesn't need retail to show up. Retail is already here.
What it needs is for the distribution from large wallets to stop, or better yet, reverse. Without that, every rally risks being sold into by the very cohort that needs to provide structural demand if it is to succeed.
The shrimps are doing their part. They are waiting for the whales join in.
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Bitcoin’s current derivatives and positioning regime closely resemble late-2022 bear market conditions, typically followed by prolonged consolidation rather than immediate recovery, according to K33.
Bitcoin's
BTC-1.09%
current market structure closely resembles the late stages of the 2022 bear market, with derivatives positioning, exchange-traded fund flows, and macro indicators signaling a prolonged consolidation phase rather than an imminent breakout, according to research and brokerage firm K33
In a new report late Tuesday, K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde said its proprietary regime indicator, which incorporates derivatives yields, open interest, ETF flows, and macro inputs such as the U.S. yield curve, shows "strikingly strong similarities" to periods in September and November 2022 — both near the global bottom of that downturn.
However, while those historical regimes marked market lows, they were followed by extended stretches of sluggish price action, producing muted forward returns and lengthy consolidation periods, Lunde noted.
Bitcoin has already fallen sharply from recent highs, shedding nearly 28% since January, while broader derivatives signals show defensive positioning, according to K33. Funding rates have remained negative for more than 11 consecutive days, and notional open interest fell below 260,000 BTC, reflecting investors unwinding long positions, Lunde said. This positioning, combined with declining leverage, suggests a low near-term risk of derivatives-driven squeezes, he added.
Consolidation rather than immediate recovery
K33 said its model assigns the greatest weight to derivatives data, which reflects real-time demand for hedging or upside exposure. Negative yields signal excess hedging demand, while falling open interest indicates traders exiting positions rather than building new directional bets. The current regime, Lunde said, aligns with environments historically associated with market bottoms but not rapid recoveries.
The firm noted that similar historical regimes delivered average 90-day returns of roughly 3% in strongly similar environments and slightly negative returns in moderately similar ones, underscoring the likelihood of slow, discouraging consolidation. Lunde expects bitcoin to trade between $60,000 and $75,000 for a prolonged duration, describing current entry levels as attractive while emphasizing the need for patience.
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Market activity has cooled significantly following recent sell-offs. Bitcoin spot trading volumes dropped 59% week over week, while futures open interest declined to four-month lows — behavior consistent with markets absorbing losses and stabilizing after major drawdowns, the firm noted. Volatility has begun to normalize as prices stabilized, further supporting expectations for a quieter trading environment, Lunde said.
Institutional positioning also reflects similar caution, according to the report.
Institutional traders on CME have remained largely inactive, with muted yields and shallow open interest reflecting limited directional conviction. Meanwhile, bitcoin exchange-traded products have seen a record drawdown of 103,113 BTC from peak holdings since October, though roughly 93% of peak exposure remains intact despite bitcoin retracing nearly 50% over the same period. This suggests institutional investors have reduced exposure but largely maintained positions through the downturn, Lunde said.
Meanwhile, sentiment indicators highlight extreme pessimism but offer limited predictive value, in the analyst's view. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index recently hit an all-time low of 5, reflecting widespread fear, though he noted that such readings historically have not reliably signaled strong rebounds.
Buying bitcoin during extreme fear has produced average 90-day returns of just 2.4%, compared with 95% when buying during extreme greed, underscoring that extreme fear does not reliably signal strong rebounds, Lunde said.
K33 concluded that bitcoin's current market regime shares key characteristics with late bear market environments, suggesting downside risks may be limited, but recovery could take time, echoing the drawn-out stabilization phase that followed the 2022 bottom.
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