btcvsgold

#btcvsgold You know I’m a bitcoin bear, so you know which of the following trajectories I think is coming. I have no material position, so I’m not “talking my book,” unless you feel that having negligible skin in the game is a position in its own right.
$BTC Bitcoin is for flight, but it would seem that Venezuelans no longer need to consider a fast exit, and the Iranian troubles that might shatter the regime appear to have come to a bloody ending – for now. So who is on the horizon that might need to consider going on the lam? To me, the answer is no one obvious, which in turn means bitcoin price weakness in my model given its role as the key driver of crypto prices.
So these are the two main scenarios:

On balance, there is more downside than upside, even if you are neutral. Of course, you have to believe in voodoo charts – but as someone who has been rewarded heavily for being a disciple, I take it as foundational.
However, the upside is certainly helped by the entropy coming out of the U.S., though the next leg of that seems to be Europe-focused, which would not elevate bitcoin.
Meanwhile, the focus of financial-market meme-chasing appears to have shifted from bitcoin to gold. Simply put, the FOMO mindset that has driven crypto for so long has landed in the precious metals arena. This is certainly a drain on bitcoin and will continue for an extended period, as gold is likely to remain exciting for a long time ahead.
The moon crew and their bags are now ogling instant “generational wealth” through a precious-metal lens, which is great for precious-metal stackers but not so great for the diamond-hand HODLers of bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the main risk in the markets is that the current U.S. geopolitical chaos will hole stock markets below the waterline. The equity haven for this is precious-metal proxies, but the mainstream won’t be able to hide so easily in crypto if the Magnificent Seven get damaged by a rupture in the Western consensus.
However, all this guessing will be pre-empted by the price action in bitcoin and gold, because those closest to the reality of what’s coming next will move prices long before they move headlines. I see metals up, crypto down.
So we draw our own lines in the sand and wait.

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The global diamond industry is navigating a severe downturn that has left Africa’s largest miner, De Beers, grappling with a staggering $511 million underlying EBITDA loss for 2025. This financial performance marks a dramatic decline compared to the relatively modest $25 million loss reported in 2024. Despite maintaining a steady total revenue of approximately $3.5 billion, the company was hit hard by lower realized prices and a necessary rebalancing of its inventory.
Several heavy global factors are driving this decline. A primary cause is the weakening demand for luxury goods in China, which has historically been a cornerstone market for high-value sales. Furthermore, the rise of laboratory-grown diamonds continues to erode the market share once held exclusively by natural stones. The strain has been further intensified by U.S. trade policies, specifically the 50% levies imposed on India—the world’s central hub for diamond cutting and exporting. These tariffs have injected significant uncertainty into the global supply chain, forcing producers to remain extremely cautious.
In response to these pressures, De Beers has significantly scaled back its operations. Total rough diamond production dropped by 12% to 21.7 million carats as the company adjusted to softer demand and rising stockpiles. Key mining sites in Botswana, Namibia, and South Africa have all implemented disciplined production strategies. The Venetia mine in South Africa and offshore operations in Namibia are now focused on aligning their output with current market conditions to prevent further inventory bloat.
To stabilize its financial position, the company reduced unit costs and slashed capital expenditure to $353 million. De Beers’ parent company, Anglo American, also recognized a $2.3 billion impairment due to shifting consumer preferences and lower long-term price expectations. CEO Duncan Wanblad expressed hope that this downturn represents a rock bottom for the business. The company is currently pinning its recovery on the "Origins" strategy, which aims to streamline operations and stimulate demand for natural diamonds through aggressive marketing campaigns.
Looking ahead to 2026, the group forecasts production to remain between 21 million and 26 million carats. While the mid-term outlook depends on inventory normalization and macroeconomic stability, the diamond sector remains vital to African economies. In Botswana particularly, these revenues are essential for public finance and national economic stability. As Anglo American moves forward with a structured separation of De Beers, the company remains focused on weathering the current volatility.
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