K线人生飞哥

A self-introduction for my followers

Hello everyone, I am Fei Ge. I entered the crypto space in 2017, and I can be considered an old hand. Along the way, I have stepped into countless pitfalls, but I have also summarized some of my own methodologies. From blindly following trends at the beginning, I have gradually shifted my focus to studying cycles, macro trends, and capital logic, and I have slowly found my own rhythm.

As I journeyed, I found that the crypto world is not just about ups and downs; it is more like a cyclical game: some people FOMO during the highs, while others quietly position themselves during the lows.

Currently, I am a blogger on Binance Square, sharing some of my personal thoughts and observations. I am not a great expert, just an old hand who has experienced several bull and bear markets. I hope to share the pitfalls I have encountered and the lessons I have learned, so that newcomers can avoid unnecessary detours, and I can also gain new insights through exchange.

If you also believe in cycles, logic, and long-term accumulation, then perhaps we can become companions here.

Regarding the viewpoints in my posts, please note the following points:

1: The crypto market is constantly changing, and so will my viewpoints follow the market. This industry changes too quickly; only by continuously keeping up with the industry's progress can one continue to grow. Sticking rigidly to established norms will only lead to being eliminated by the times, so I hope everyone can be more open-minded.

2: The viewpoints I post on the Square are divided into short-term and long-term. For example, even if I am bullish in the long term, there will be pullbacks in between; similarly, even if I am bearish in the long term, there will also be rebounds in between. Please do not let short-term viewpoints affect long-term perspectives. An upward market does not mean it will rise continuously without looking back; more often, it is a trend of ups and downs. Similarly, a downward market does not mean it will crash without any rebounds; more often, it is a trend of falls and rises overall. I hope everyone can understand the differences between short-term and long-term viewpoints.

3: In this market, apart from BTC, which can be followed blindly, other coins have market cycles, especially altcoins. Before buying a coin, you should at least investigate it; some things need to be understood a bit, and you cannot just buy whatever others say. Especially for those with limited funds, you need to consider the actual situation and be more cautious.

Thank you to every friend who follows and supports me; you are the motivation for my continued sharing. May we all reap our own rewards in the cycles. 🌱

Previously, I mentioned a method for buying the dip on value altcoins, which is to wait until the position of the 1011 black swan spike. At that time, many people said it was impossible to drop to this position, and some said to patiently wait for this position to go all in. Looking back now, $TAO and $DOGE have already dropped to near the 1011 spike position, while $AAVE is still a little bit away. So now that we have truly reached this position, do you still dare to buy the dip?

Talk about $CHZ , this coin is currently experiencing heavy wash trading, having retraced to 50% from this year's high, but in my view, this is normal. CHZ has increased from around 0.026 to 0.060 on a daily chart, doubling in price, and it surged before the fan coin sector even started, so a 50% retracement after such a rise is a normal phenomenon. Furthermore, CHZ has garnered significant discussion and attention from both KOLs and retail investors, so naturally, there will be selling pressure, requiring a drop and time to wash out the weak hands.

From a monthly chart perspective, CHZ's trend has not followed the majority of altcoins that have been dropping; instead, it has remained in a sideways trend for several months, which is a typical accumulation pattern. Therefore, from this direction, after this wave of wash trading for CHZ is completed, there will likely be a second wave of market movement.

Recently, the fan coin $OG $ATM has performed well, leading many to criticize CHZ as garbage. But what about when CHZ was rising? Every coin has its own performance timing; it’s not possible for every coin to always be performing. Many people chased CHZ a while back, got stuck, sold at a loss, and are now chasing OG, only to criticize OG as a garbage coin later. Such individuals are typical contributors to the market's losses.

Fan coins have a four-year cycle, regardless of the overall market conditions, fan coins will follow an independent trend each year.

Buy when no one is asking, sell when voices are loud.

The judgment on the pressure levels of gold $XAU and silver $XAG is still quite accurate. A few days ago, I told everyone that the pressure level for gold is between 5100 and 5200, and for silver, it is between 85 and 88. For those holding long positions, remember to reduce your positions when the prices rebound to these two levels. Currently, it still looks quite accurate. I have my own set of methods for judging the trends of gold and silver, and so far, it seems to be working well. I will share my insights in the square later and teach everyone how to make judgments. If you want to see it, please give a thumbs up, and if there are many people, I will share it.

This year, global financial markets are expected to bear bearish trends.

Bitcoin is a leading indicator of global risk assets, with the cryptocurrency market peaking first, followed by the US stock market, and finally the A-shares.
If this logic and order are mistaken, everything will be wrong.

Currently, Bitcoin is plummeting, and the logic is simple: in 2014, 2018, 2022, and 2026, we see a four-year cycle; the bear market has simply arrived, nothing to be alarmed about.

Additionally, in 2026, it is highly likely that the A-shares and the US stock market will also be in a bear market. Bitcoin's decline is just more sensitive to liquidity, hence it falls first as a courtesy.

Looking back at the last bear market in 2022, cryptocurrency, the US stock market, and A-shares all went bearish simultaneously.

In 2023, 2024, and 2025, cryptocurrency, the US stock market, and A-shares will all trend upward simultaneously.

Many people might wonder, didn't the A-shares only start to rally at the end of September 2024?

In fact, that is not the case. The new productivity stocks in A-shares, such as the Yizhongtian AI sector and Sailis, actually began to rally in early 2023 alongside the US stock market.

Therefore, I believe that this round of global assets will all go bearish in 2026, and Bitcoin's sharp decline is merely a precursor.

Before June, the A-shares represent the last opportunity for escape; after June, violent harvesting will begin.

Viewing key short-term points and future bear market order points through the star line of $BTC

BT At this position, the 60,000 integer mark has shown increased volume, and I am no longer extremely bearish.

Because the 60,000 mark has released a massive volume, what does low-level volume usually indicate? Either panic selling or someone is buying. Combined with the previous downward trend from the high points, it seems more like - selling from above, buying from below. You can understand it as institutions offloading at high levels and replenishing at low levels. Continuing to view this position emotionally as bearish, the cost-performance ratio is no longer high.

In the short term, I tend to think that this is likely a phase low point.

If this turning point holds, the short-term resistance levels for BTC rebounds can be seen at: 75068, 79787, and there is also peak volume resistance around 80216. Whether it can really stabilize depends on the volume cooperation; before it stabilizes, we won't discuss higher levels.

Of course, if a black swan continues to hit, I also plan to place orders at several key points
First order point: 58739 (previous round bull market high trading marks)
Second order points: 48189, 46216 (annual peak volume resistance line)
Third order point: 43929 (dense area of chips after 2024)

Below 40,000, we can look at 35045, 29184, but to be honest, there is no need to look that far for now.

In the short term, just focus on the gains and losses of these two positions 64168, 62909.
If it holds, it will be a consolidation to build a bottom;
If it breaks, we will talk about deeper positions.

In the short term, it is not suitable to view this emotionally as bearish; structure is more important than opinion.

Vitalik has not changed, so I still have faith in $ETH

Vitalik has always been a principled person. The "three axes of decentralization" he spoke about many years ago still hold true today; his opposition to treating crypto as a political label is correct; his questioning of the "ultrasound money" narrative, emphasizing that Ethereum is an infrastructure rather than a speculative tool, is also correct. Now he says that the rollup-centered roadmap is no longer reasonable, and I still believe he is right.

Back in the day, L2 was developed because L1 couldn't handle the load. Gas fees often reached dozens or hundreds of dollars; Ethereum aimed to become a global settlement layer and had to scale, hence the path of "L1 ensures security, L2 handles execution". But now the situation has changed—L1 is expanding on its own. Transaction fees have dropped to below 1 dollar, the gas limit is set to double, and ZK and data availability solutions are being rolled out one after another. The bottleneck that initially forced the emergence of rollups is disappearing.

L2 has not truly become part of Ethereum; among the 151 L2-related projects, only a handful have reached a fully decentralized stage, with most still controlled by multi-signatures or security committees. TVL and activity are highly concentrated in a few chains, and liquidity is severely fragmented. Users are bridging back and forth between different L2s, and costs, risks, and complexities are all increasing. This is contrary to the initial promise of "shared liquidity, shared state".

The next narrative for ETH. Vitalik has shifted his focus to AI—not just speculating on concepts, but creating a trustless economic layer between AIs. AI agents need to pay, collateralize, build reputation, and resolve disputes, which traditional banking systems cannot achieve, but blockchain can. Standards like ERC-8004 for agent identity and reputation are laying the foundation for "AI hiring AI".

Ethereum is upgrading from a "DeFi foundational layer" to an "AI economic settlement layer". If this line succeeds, the previous five years of rollup detours were merely a phase of exploration.

The rollup path is ending, not because it has failed, but because the premise has changed. L1 can scale now, L2 is beginning to differentiate, and new opportunities lie in the AI direction. Vitalik is simply adjusting the course again in response to changes in the data.

Many times, investment is mainly about the founder; Vitalik has maintained his original intention in the crypto market for so many years, so what reason do I have not to be optimistic about ETH?

This market is really awesome. As long as it rebounds to the resistance level, you can make money by shorting without thinking. I guess the big players have gone to do their annual business, directly using robots for grid trading.

The market has drawn a door again, everything is as expected
This afternoon in the contract community, the strategy I shared with everyone is to short on rallies, short in batches when $BTC rebounds to 67800～68200, and short in batches when $ETH rebounds to 1990～2010. So far, the strategy has been problem-free. From a profit and loss perspective, shorting ETH offers the best cost-performance ratio and is also the most comfortable profit. Ethereum has relatively large fluctuations, and the current market is in a range-bound consolidation. Friends who understand a bit of technology can make easy money in such a consolidating market. This is also why our contract community's strategies have been so accurate during this time; if you don't have the skills, you really can't dare to lead trades. There is still strength.

Register for trading through the following link to follow the contract community

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New user spot contract rebate invitation code: BTC9638

$AVNT This trend is quite interesting, it quickly crashed to 0.22, this trend is not a big problem, the current market has just started, so this morning in the community I directly let everyone exchange $XLM for $AVNT , I also opened a long position myself, some people say I am calling the shots, but I am also in the car, HYPE finished pulling ASTER, after ASTER pulled it finished pulling AVNT, we need to grasp the rhythm of market rotation, decentralized exchanges are the future, retail investors are fed up with centralized exchanges harvesting, the DEX track will continue to be hyped, wait until HYPE ASTER AVNT has finished rising, even the junk coins DYDX GMX can have a surge, just wait and see.

Currently, there is basically no one discussing or paying attention to altcoins in the market, whether it's KOLs or retail investors, because everyone knows that today's gainers list is tomorrow's losers list, and retail investors are no longer falling for it. However, the cryptocurrency market cannot lack altcoins; without altcoins, there would be no current crypto space. There are still two main lines that can be speculated on in the market: one is the World Cup fan tokens, which will have positive news related to the World Cup soon, such as $OG $CHZ , and the other is the DEX track, such as $HYPE ASTER AVNT. These are basically taking turns to rise, so if you see a position that hasn't increased much, you can stealthily enter. If BTC stabilizes at 70000, altcoins can collectively rebound.

$UNI this trend is a bit ridiculous, BlackRock buying such a large benefit actually still able to smash the盘 back, but at the moment at the position of 3.4, I still think it can be bought. After the specific cooperation matters of BlackRock are disclosed, it should still be able to rise.

Retail investors are beginning to awaken, unable to tolerate the manipulation of centralized exchanges. They are starting to transfer their funds to decentralized exchanges for trading. The decline of CEX is inevitable; DEX is the future. Ultimately, this industry will return to decentralization. This can be seen from the trends of $HYPE and $ASTER over the past few days. Currently, $AVNT hasn't risen much yet, it's just a matter of time. For the DEX track, we can focus on these three coins. The previous bull market coins like DYDX and GMX have already been swept into the historical trash bin, so there’s no need to pay attention to them. Of course, there are still many die-hard fans of DYDX, and many people are still unconvinced, but that's okay; time will provide the answer.

For tokens in the Ethereum L2 space like OP, ARB, ZK, STRK, it is advisable to stop-loss and sell during the rebound.

Ethereum has completed the Fusaka upgrade, and the gas fees for transfers are now about $0.01. Previously, everyone thought ETH's gas fees were too high, and the speed was too slow, so a bunch of L2 solutions were created, such as OP, ARB, ZK, STRK, METIS, etc. Now that ETH has completed the Fusaka upgrade, gas fees have decreased, but there are not many users anymore, and the on-chain activity is significantly lower than before. It's like having a highway that's been improved but with a much lower toll, yet there are no cars running on it anymore.

Additionally, recently $ENS directly abandoned its own L2 and deployed ENS v2 back to the Ethereum mainnet for a simple reason—the mainnet has become cheap enough that L2 is unnecessary. After the Fusaka upgrade, gas fees plummeted by 99%, making the operational costs comparable to or even lower than many L2 solutions. In the future, the gas limit will be increased to three times its current level, and the mainnet will only become faster and cheaper.

As the mainnet expands itself, the original narrative of 'cost reduction and expansion' in Layer 2 has become obsolete. The founder of $ETH , Vitalik Buterin, has also mentioned that tokens in the L2 space should find their own way out.

Currently, there are very few L2s with real users; most have low daily active users and remain in the multi-signature control phase, meaning asset security still fundamentally relies on the project team. There is also a lot of fluff in TVL, with many being propped up by incentives.

Therefore, let the tokens that should go to zero go to zero, as it also helps to squeeze out the market bubble.

"Maji" is no longer bearish and has canceled all limit ETH short positions
I have to say, I think this time Maji might win 😂

Talk about your views on the POW sector and privacy coins in the next bull market.

Currently, the mainstream in the PoW track includes a few: BTC, BCH, LTC, DOGE, ETC, ZEC. Except for BTC, the prices of other coins have reached a point where mining is basically not as economical as buying. Electricity costs, equipment depreciation, and increasing difficulty are all factors to consider, and it turns out that buying directly on the secondary market is more cost-effective.

In this bear market for the PoW sector, I personally still prefer to hold $BTC . The reason is simple: liquidity, consensus, and institutional allocation depth are not comparable to other PoW coins.

Additionally, privacy coins $XMR and $ZEC can effectively innovate to new highs in both the 2021 and 2026 cycles, while ETH has not achieved a true historical high in this round. What does this indicate? It shows that the market's choice of value anchors changes at different stages. BTC is the core, and privacy coins have premium space in specific stages, but the public chain narrative does not necessarily dominate in every cycle.

Therefore, if we extend to the logic of bottom-fishing in a bear market, I will focus more on three directions: BTC, coins with strong privacy attributes, and leading platform tokens. These three categories have relatively stronger capabilities to traverse cycles.

Currently, after discussions with some manufacturers, everyone is cautious about new PoW projects and there is no obvious willingness to push new chains. So compared to waiting for someone to launch new coins, I am more concerned about whether it is possible to mine companion mining tokens from the Bitcoin ecosystem. The true paradigm of the next round of the mining circle may not be a new public chain, but rather a derivative mining structure around the BTC network.

I have closed the empty order of $HYPE , just to let everyone know.

Funding in the HYPE market has obviously started to gain attention. However, it is precisely because the overall market sentiment is currently cold that it makes it more interesting. Hyperliquid's positioning is no longer just a DEX, but is actively challenging the liquidity and trading experience of traditional CEXs. This narrative is actually more likely to create an independent market trend in a weak market.

From a technical perspective, the current price is just touching the H4 level EMA200. This position is usually a medium-term watershed for bulls and bears. The lower level tested around 28's SMA200, which is a stronger support.

My thinking is to gradually start building small positions for long orders, with the stop-loss set below 27. If it effectively breaks down, I will cut losses to control risk. At the same time, I will not go all in at once, but rather add positions gradually as it moves, using a dollar-cost averaging approach to flatten the cost. This position is not about mindlessly betting, but about making a trend play under the premise of risk control.

The emergence of the Chinese MEME coin was not sudden; it evolved step by step.

In March 2025, during that market wave, a bunch of Pinyin coins popped up. I even complained about it in the square back then, like this LUXUN coin, which is essentially a transitional form of Chinese narrative. At that time, domestic funds were eager to speculate on Chinese memes but had some concerns, fearing that foreigners wouldn't understand, so they could only use Pinyin as a compromise. In simple terms, they wanted to express Chinese culture but didn't dare to fully localize it in Chinese.

By October 2025, during that wave, the market sentiment had completely changed, and everyone stopped pretending, directly using Chinese. The logic is simple: since it's Chinese narrative, Chinese sentiment, and dominated by Chinese capital, why still cater to an English context? If you don't understand Chinese, go learn it; didn't you also not understand Pinyin at first?

This actually reflects a change in discourse power. From initially imitating Western narratives to later daring to name assets with their own cultural symbols, it essentially shows an increase in capital scale and market confidence. The Chinese coin is not a gimmick; it is a phased product of emotional and power shift.

Therefore, in conclusion, I still hold a positive outlook on $币安人生 . I will buy this coin at the bottom during the bear market, purchasing a few tens of thousands of U as a lottery ticket. The next bull market should show good performance.

Talk about the characteristics at the bottom of $BTC

The bear market bottom does not require excessive speculation, as the trading volume at the bottom will be very low. Most people either give up or completely lose hope and sell out. The candlestick chart forms a flat bottom for about a few weeks or even months, with trading volume being very small, far below any stage during the entire bear market process. Referring to the bottom of the bear market in 2022, Bitcoin dropped to 15,000, and 90% of the market participants dared not buy the dip. That was the real bottom. Currently, many people are still averaging down in BTC, so it is highly likely that we have not yet reached the bottom.

Only those who enter the market at this time, when no one is paying attention, are truly wise and understand how to buy the dip.

Do not overcomplicate Bitcoin, nor should you simplify it too much.