金融汪搬运号

Looking at the current market dynamics, all major asset classes have encountered significant downward pressure. Specifically, gold and the stock market have plummeted, while silver and cryptocurrencies have seen massive declines; meanwhile, the US dollar has also failed to maintain its value, showing a trend of depreciation.

This rapid cooling of risk appetite is, in fact, the result of multiple complex factors pressing together. These include the uncertainty surrounding interest rate cut expectations, changes in the position of the Federal Reserve Chair, the disruption of business models by artificial intelligence technology, volatility brought about by Trump’s policies, and the ongoing impact of geopolitical conflicts.

In light of this situation, it might be worth revisiting that famous investment adage: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.

$COIN Financial Report Quick Review: Facing Net Loss Challenges in the Fourth Quarter

Coinbase disclosed its financial performance for the fourth quarter and the entire fiscal year 2025 after the market closed. Although the total trading volume for the year set a historical record, the revenue and profit performance for the fourth quarter fell short of market expectations, primarily due to fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market and losses in investment income.

Focusing on the financial situation for the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4 2025), the company recorded a GAAP net loss of 667 million dollars, mainly attributable to paper losses from its cryptocurrency asset portfolio and strategic investments. The adjusted net profit for the quarter was 178 million dollars, significantly down from 931 million dollars in the same period last year; the adjusted earnings per share (EPS) was 0.66 dollars, below the expected value of 0.96 dollars. Additionally, the adjusted EBITDA was 566 million dollars. In terms of revenue, the total revenue for the quarter was 1.78 billion dollars, a year-on-year decline of approximately 22%, and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5%, a figure that fell short of analysts' previous forecasts of a range between 1.83 billion and 1.85 billion dollars.

At the core business level, transaction revenue decreased by 6% quarter-on-quarter to 983 million dollars. This change reflects the impact of cooling market sentiment on retail trading, while user migration to low-fee products like Coinbase One also caused some disruption; however, the derivatives business remained robust. Subscription and service revenue (S&S) was 727 million dollars, down slightly by 3% quarter-on-quarter. Although USDC holdings and staking continued to play a key supporting role, their quarter-on-quarter growth rate has shown signs of slowing down.

Looking back at the performance for the entire year of 2025, the highlight was the significant expansion of market share, with total trading volume soaring to 52 trillion dollars, a year-on-year increase of 156%, resulting in a doubling of market share. Total revenue for the year reached 720 million dollars, a 9% year-on-year increase. The company has made significant progress in business diversification, with 12 products achieving an annualized revenue of over 100 million dollars, two of which exceed 1 billion dollars, indicating that the company's dependence on single transaction fee income is gradually weakening. Moreover, the number of paid subscribers for Coinbase One has reached approximately 1 million, tripling over three years.

Regarding assets and shareholder returns, as of the end of 2025, Coinbase boasts a cash and cash equivalents reserve of 11.3 billion dollars (including USDC). The company has also actively returned value to shareholders, repurchasing approximately 1.7 billion dollars of Class A common stock from Q4 2025 to February 10, 2026.

Looking ahead, CEO Brian Armstrong pointed out that the company is at a critical stage in transitioning to an "Everything Exchange" and is optimistic about the development prospects in the prediction market, derivatives, and stablecoin payment sectors for 2026. From a stock price perspective, since the beginning of 2026, Coinbase's stock price has already dropped by 36%, and from the peak in 2025, the decline has exceeded 68%.

Russia is seeking to restore its dollar settlement status

According to news from Bloomberg, as part of a comprehensive economic cooperation plan reached with President Trump, Russia is assessing the feasibility of reusing the dollar.

This potential strategic partnership covers the following key dimensions: first, collaboration between Russia and the United States in the fossil fuel industry; second, joint investment in the gas sector; and it will also establish cooperative relationships regarding offshore oil and key raw materials. For American companies, this could mean unexpected substantial profits. As a core part of this plan, Russia will return to the dollar settlement system.

Watching the live broadcast of the Attorney General's hearing feels like witnessing another civil war erupting on American soil. No television series can achieve this level of dramatic effect; this real-life drama is more exciting than any American TV show, and even the classic 'House of Cards' pales in comparison.

The scene of this hearing for the Attorney General was filled with tension, and the intensity of the confrontation made it feel as if the United States were experiencing another civil war. The dramatic tension presented in this live broadcast surpasses all fictional American TV dramas, even works as tumultuous as 'House of Cards' can only bow down in the face of such a real struggle.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is also a joke

According to the latest revisions, the U.S. economy added only 181,000 jobs last year—15,000 jobs per month, a significant decrease from the previously revised 49,000 jobs per month.

Everyone is very curious about the current state of xAI, especially since there has been a significant amount of personnel loss recently, and among the departing team members are several influential figures. Has this change been influenced by Elon’s recent public announcement to open source Xchat? I honestly don't quite understand this; I'm just purely curious to learn more.

The prediction market now shows incredible vitality. News from Kalshi's CEO, a prediction platform, indicates that on Super Bowl day, the platform's market performance was outstanding, with a single-day betting transaction total reaching the 1 billion dollar mark. This achievement is not only eye-catching but also represents an astonishing growth of 27 times year-on-year.

In the specific segments, the halftime show featuring 'Bad Bunny' became the focus of funding attention. The scale of prediction transactions for his opening song alone reached 100 million dollars; meanwhile, the betting related to who will perform as a guest alongside Bad Bunny is also hot, with the stakes involved exceeding 4500 million dollars.

$TSLA Tesla has finally provided the answer that customers have been eagerly awaiting, officially announcing the price of its 500-mile Semi truck, which has been confirmed at 290,000 USD. This latest price level represents a significant increase compared to the company's quote when it first launched the Semi advertising in 2017. Looking back at the data from that time, the 300-mile version was priced at 150,000 USD, while the 500-mile version was priced at 180,000 USD. After comparison, the current final price is 61% higher than the initial estimated price.

After a long period of market anticipation, customers have finally received the pricing news for the $TSLA Tesla Semi truck. The price for this model, which has a range of 500 miles, has been confirmed to be 290,000 USD. This price contrasts sharply with the quotes when the Semi was initially promoted in 2017: at that time, the price for the 300-mile version was 150,000 USD, while the 500-mile version was quoted at 180,000 USD. This means that the current price has risen by 61% compared to the promotional figures from that year. #tesla #tesla #semi

The latest progress brought by @IsomorphicLabs is truly exciting. They have just released a technical report on IsoDDE. According to the report data, IsoDDE demonstrated performance exceeding AlphaFold 3 by more than twice in challenging benchmark tests, such as identifying hidden binding pockets. Moreover, in terms of handling antibody-antigen interfaces, the model's performance reached 2.3 times that of AlphaFold 3. This significant breakthrough has far-reaching implications for tackling difficult diseases like cancer and is expected to significantly accelerate the process of computer-aided drug development.

【Books and Movies】【Trevor Noah's Stand-Up】

Trevor Noah's latest stand-up comedy special is now officially available on his eponymous YouTube channel. I initially watched this work on the Netflix platform, and I speculate that the exclusive copyright period has now expired, so everyone can enjoy it for free.

The narrative perspective of this performance is quite unique. Trevor uses his travel experiences in Berlin as a starting point, observing the German people's ongoing profound reflections on World War II history, and then expands to explore why Americans seem so challenged in changing the status quo.

In today's America, where populism is on the rise, the social sphere indeed needs more thought-provoking voices like this.

Gemini experienced a downtime today, an event that resembles a stress test on the impact of the AI era on our work and life. At its core, among the demands for token computation, network transmission, and power consumption, which one is truly the shortcoming that determines the stable working capacity of AI according to the law of the barrel?

Just today, Google officially announced that it will issue $20 billion in corporate bonds, aimed at providing funding support for its data center projects. This move also reflects the major trend in the industry: based on existing data, the total capital expenditure of the five largest cloud service providers is expected to rise to $660 billion by 2026.

In response to this phenomenon, Morgan Stanley analysis pointed out that by 2026, the total financing amount for large-scale cloud vendors in the market will exceed $400 billion. This scale represents a significant increase compared to $165 billion in 2015. With the surge in financing demand, the supply in the U.S. high-grade corporate bond market will significantly expand, undoubtedly leading to an increasing trend in yield spreads between different companies.

This is a warm reminder that the individual is involved in fraudulent activities, so everyone must remain vigilant. To protect everyone's rights and interests, please pass the message along to prevent being deceived.

【I have a question: Where exactly is the end with higher added value located in the future commercial value chain?】

I have been often lost in thought lately: Given the powerful capabilities demonstrated by artificial intelligence, it is not only restructuring workflows but also fundamentally changing the way products are created. This encompasses all fields involving text, plans, and service outputs, including media, advertising, film production, financial products, as well as legal documents and financial audit reports. When the input costs that once concentrated human intellectual labor (i.e., added value) are compressed to an insignificant degree, what are the elements that can ultimately build a solid competitive moat from a business logic perspective?

Could it be the distribution channels of products? Or network effects? Or those links that can truly achieve physical reach?

I would love to hear everyone's thoughts and insights on this question.

Recently, domestic financial institutions have received 'window guidance' from the Chinese government, requiring them to limit their purchases of U.S. Treasuries and moderately adjust their current holdings of U.S. Treasury positions. As a result of this guidance, the market reaction has shown a slight uptick in U.S. Treasury yields across various maturities, while the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against major currencies has experienced a slight decline. Although the situation's development is concerning, some analysts have expressed differing views, pointing out that China may simply be transferring some U.S. Treasuries to overseas custody accounts located in Belgium. Therefore, the actual reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings may not be as severe as it appears.

I just carefully watched a series of video content generated by ByteDance Seedance 2.0, and the level of technical proficiency presented is truly astonishing. However, while being deeply impressed, this rapid advancement also inevitably brings about a sense of anxiety once again.

Dear friends, when we delve into the political and economic situation in Japan as well as various market dynamics, our original intention is certainly not to praise any specific political figure. Our core focus is on observing the public, the entire market environment, and capital flows, to see how they express their voting stance on the current situation through actual actions.

In reality, there is often a situation where, at the institutional design level involving core interests, the relevant parties often lose their right to voice through voting. Fundamentally, this is because these groups are all situated within a framework of rules set by others, and what they can do is merely to engage in so-called institutional arbitrage within this framework.

If we review the final actual results, many have indeed gained positive returns through institutional arbitrage. It can even be argued that these systems, when initially designed, already contained a certain degree of tolerance for such arbitrage behavior. Looking at the present, elected governments around the world seem to be showing a consistent trend of turning to the right. This is akin to the pendulum of history, which after swinging back and forth, appears to have returned to the era of the rise of right-wing forces a hundred years ago. The impact of this trend will be long-lasting and profound; it weighs heavily on the shoulders of those who are helpless and can only passively endure.