Crypto-Ibrahim7

The current financial market is permeated with the main theme of 'consolidation', with Bitcoin$BTC and U.S. stocks both caught in a directionless stalemate.
Bitcoin experienced a dramatic drop from 86,000 to 60,000 at the beginning of the month, then rebounded strongly back to 70,000. Currently, it is trading in a range of 67,000 to 71,000. This is not merely a price stagnation, but rather a period of pain for market deleveraging: futures funding rates remain low, and although there have been sporadic buying activities since over $3 billion exited ETFs in January, institutions are no longer chasing higher prices, adopting a cautious stance of 'bullish but not buying' to price risks. On the technical front, the weekly RSI has fallen to an extreme oversold level of 15.9, a ten-year low, and historical experience suggests there is resilience at the lower levels, but it can only be seen as a corrective rebound until it stabilizes above 72,000.

I officially started live streaming on Binance Square on July 25, 2025, and to this day, it has been 203 days since Wanli and I achieved certification as creators from scratch. During this period, I’ve been growing on Binance Square every day and meeting many friends both domestically and internationally.
Especially this time, the growth in promoting USD1 is still fresh in my memory.
I learned how to live stream using a computer, and during the learning process, there was fun and also a realization of my potential [facepalm]. For those who are cultured and know how to use a computer, it's very simple, but for me, it was very difficult [facepalm]. I studied until 3 AM on the 7th, fortunately, Wanli was there to accompany and guide me, and I am very grateful to her for being there. Because of my own reasons, I hadn’t used the computer for a long time, and I couldn’t log in to the Binance Square website. At that moment, I decisively downloaded a system reinstall online. The system installation took until 11:30 PM, which startled many friends around me. With their help, I finally logged into the Binance Square on my computer, feeling a great sense of accomplishment and passion to keep moving forward. The next step was to learn how to stream. I thought I had finally completed it, and tomorrow I could properly use the computer to promote USD1 [facepalm]. Little did I know that reality was playing tricks on me again, as the computer crashed. At that moment, my head was buzzing, and it became a huge issue for me. Sigh, all I could think was to get a good sleep, maybe when I wake up, the computer won’t crash! With this hopeful thought, I slept for 3 hours, but how could I really sleep peacefully when I had things on my mind? In the morning, I checked and found it was finished. I quickly called a taxi to go fix the computer. When I asked the technician about the situation, I finally relaxed. Who knew the technician said it was back to square one? He said he hadn’t encountered such a problem in over 10 years. Although the computer technician asked about the situation, he was still repeating my actions from last night. After more than an hour, I finally could use the external microphone, which startled all my friends who then tested the microphone with me [facepalm]. Until now, I really enjoy this process.

The price of Bitcoin and MSTR (MicroStrategy) shares has formed a highly convergent leveraged proxy relationship. MSTR is no longer essentially a software company, but rather a 'Bitcoin leveraged ETF': its beta value reaches 1.77, showing greater elasticity when the coin price rises, and significantly magnified declines when it falls.
The latest holdings show that MSTR holds over 714,000 bitcoins, with an average cost of about $76,056. As the price of Bitcoin fell to $69,000, the unrealized losses expanded to between $4.8 billion and $6.5 billion, and MSTR's stock price has plummeted nearly 80% from its peak.
In terms of market capitalization, the key indicator is the premium rate (mNAV). When the premium is above 1, the company can issue shares at low prices to finance and buy coins at high prices to create a positive feedback loop; however, the current premium has compressed to 1.09 and even briefly fell below 1, resulting in stagnant financing and interrupting the traditional 'issue shares to buy coins' cycle. Market focus has shifted from 'whether to sell coins' to 'whether to refinance at low cost', which will determine whether this highly leveraged model can survive a bear market.

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