厂长布林带之神

Factory Director | Contract practitioner in the cryptocurrency circle, never asks about worldly matters
Binance private message ID: cz6611
Founder of ultra-short instant orders, founder of the Bollinger Law
Professional trader of private equity funds, proficient in Bollinger Bands and EMA
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Do not chase high or sell low, no hype or negativity, let strength speak.
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Follow today's live broadcast theme to trade and eat $ETH

Bullish conditions: Stabilize above 2050~2100 and consider if it doesn't break down; currently all moving averages are above, and there is weakness in the bulls until a breakthrough.
Bearish conditions: Break below 1900.
The factory manager's thinking is looking upward: 2000~2050, looking downward 1880~1900.
Many people cannot understand the logic of trading and end up failing here.
The only two signals truly worth heavy investment are: Stabilize above 2200.
May enter a mid-level rebound phase.
Breaking below 1740 may initiate a new round of panic.
Other positions, to be honest, all belong to: noise market $ETH

I have been going to bed very late recently, how about you?

#厂长 Is the greater form greater than the technical prowess, tonight's theme $ETH

ETH 4H Structure 1950
The trend is the same as BTC: all moving averages are rebounding downwards with significantly weaker strength. ETH has recently been weaker than BTC.
Currently, it is oscillating downwards within a descending channel. The MACD indicator has crossed bearish and continues to weaken, with the price adhering to the lower trend line, indicating a slow decline structure, rather than a panic crash.
Key positions
Resistance: 2000 – 2100
Strong resistance: Around 2300 (trend moving average pressure)
Support: 1900
Strong support: 1750 (previous low)
Summary from a strategic perspective (key point): The current market state is a medium-term bearish trend with a short-term weak rebound failure, indicating a probability zone for a second bottom rather than a strong bullish environment.
A more reasonable long position strategy is to wait for: $BTC to stand back above 72k
$ETH to stand back above 2100 with the moving averages beginning to flatten, otherwise it's easy to get caught in the middle of the climb.
Short position strategy (pure structural logic)
Usually: A rebound to the moving average resistance zone with a significant upper shadow or top divergence is the structural short position
rather than chasing shorts at low levels.

The troops are shivering again

Bitwise Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated in an interview with CNBC that the 'four-year cycle' is the reason for the cryptocurrency market entering a bear market, a phenomenon that has appeared three times in the cryptocurrency market. 'People always want to find a single culprit for the current Bitcoin pullback. But there isn't a single villain,' he said on the 'ETF Edge' program on Monday.

Hougan believes that investors have recently also tended to direct funds toward other hot investment targets, including gold and artificial intelligence stocks, rather than cryptocurrencies. 'There are some quantum computing risks. The market is also concerned about Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Walsh,' he said, 'all these factors get amplified in a bear market.'

However, Hougan believes that Bitcoin's weakness should ultimately not undermine the momentum of ETF development focused on cryptocurrencies. He believes that what currently dominates the crypto market is a kind of 'self-fulfilling prophecy.'

'Beneath the surface, there is good news, it’s just that they are materializing slowly. Therefore, I do not think that this financialization of Bitcoin fundamentally changes its scarcity argument,' Hougan said. 'It may change some intraday movements or short-term trading dynamics, but it does not change a basic fact: the total supply of Bitcoin is only 21 million. All derivative demand must ultimately be transmitted to the spot market.'

It is worth noting that Matt Hougan publicly stated multiple times on social media, blogs, podcasts, and interviews that 'the four-year cycle is dead' in the second half of 2025 (especially around December). At that time, Bitcoin prices were still high, and Hougan's tone was optimistic and institutionalized, emphasizing that 'this time is different' — the cycle was 'killed' by institutional funds and mature markets. $BTC

Precise positioning for stable meat consumption#厂长布林带之神 $ETH

The short position continues to eat big meat$ETH

Next is the summer of DeFi in 2020, which aggregated 'financial labor.' We became the back-office employees of that never-closing bank: lending, mortgaging, arbitraging, tirelessly searching for that 3000% annualized return, praying every night that it wouldn't run away when we woke up.
Then came 2021, the year of NFTs, which aggregated not just capital, but also people resonating with a certain shared culture, aesthetics, or ideology. Everyone was asking at that time: 'Wait, why should I buy a picture?' 'That's not just a picture, that's culture.'
Everyone was looking for their own 'tribe'; your little picture is your passport, a digital 'insider' badge, and it is your ticket to high-level group chats and upscale gatherings.
By 2024, the era of meme coins, this trend can no longer be ignored. At this point, people were almost no longer concerned about technology. What it was truly aggregating was emotions, identity recognition, and collective jokes within the community.
What you bought was no longer a white paper. What you bought was that phrase 'Those who know, know, and you understand why I am laughing (or crying) hee hee.' What you bought was a 'community' that makes you feel less lonely when the coin price drops by 80%.
Now, we have welcomed prediction markets. What it aggregates is no longer emotions, but judgment, a shared belief in the future. Moreover, these beliefs have truly realized borderless flow.
Take the U.S. presidential election as an example, a focal event for the whole world. But if you are not American, you do not have voting rights. Yet in the prediction market, although you still cannot vote, you can bet on your understanding. At this point, the real transformation becomes evident.
With each cycle, new dimensions are integrated into this large system: money, faith, financial labor, culture, emotions, judgment, ____? What will the next one be?
You will find that every breakthrough in the crypto field essentially gathers people together in a new way. Each stage brings not just more users, but also a new reason for people to stick around—this is the key.
The focus has never been on the token itself; the token is just a topic to bring everyone together so they can play together. What truly flows in this system are those things that can carry an increasingly large scale of native consensus.

Minimum point's more $ETH #厂长布林带之神