News Hunter BNB

The retail narrative is that Bitcoin is "consolidating" at $70k. The On-Chain data says Bitcoin is DISTRIBUTING. We just hit an "Invisible Sell Wall" driven by three massive structural failures. This is not a dip to buy; it is a Rational Deleveraging triggered by a $6.3B supply shock that the market cannot absorb.

1. THE ON-CHAIN REALITY (SUPPLY SHOCK) ⛏️
• Miner Capitulation: Miners transferred 90,000 BTC ($6.3B) to exchanges in the last 72 hours.
• Historic Magnitude: This is the largest miner sell-off since 2024, signaling they are selling to survive as margins tighten.
• The Impact: Spot demand cannot absorb $6.3B in selling pressure without a significant repricing event. The "Wall" is real.

2. THE MACRO & STRUCTURE 📉

Bearish Triggers:
• Yield Spike: US 10-Year Treasury Yields spiked to 4.17%. When risk-free rates rise, capital flees crypto.
• Capital Flight: While BTC is down -3%, high-beta alts (BNB, ZEC, SUI) are down -6%+, signaling a "Risk-Off" environment where liquidity exits to USD, not Alts.
• Broken Support: We lost the 200-Week EMA at ~$68,000, a major secular bull/bear line.

The Conflict:
Retail is waiting for "Alt Season" while Institutions are executing a "Flight to Safety." The divergence between the Miner Sell Wall and retail hope creates a trap at $66k.

3. THE TRADE SETUP 🎯

🔴 Scenario A: The Rational Deleveraging
• Trigger: Rejection at $67,500 - $68,000 (Retest of broken 200W EMA support)
• Entry: $67,500 zone (selling into the Miner Wall)
• Target 1: $62,000 (October Support Cluster)
• Target 2: $59,800 (The "Weak Low" Liquidity Sweep)
• Stop: 4H close above $70,500 (Invalidates the Miner Capitulation thesis)

🟢 Scenario B: The Reclaim (Low Probability)
• Trigger: Daily close back above $70,000
• Context: Requires Miners to stop selling and Coinbase Premium to flip positive
• Target: $74,000 range high

MY VERDICT
The "Miner Wall" is too heavy. The market needs to clear the leverage at $59,800 before the bull run can resume. I am positioning SHORT into any relief rally near $67.6k. Confidence: 75% Bearish

#BTC #TrendingTopic #GoldSilverRally

XRP falls below all major EMAs, trading near $1.37 after breaking multi-month trendline support.Goldman Sachs discloses $153M XRP exposure through spot ETFs, contributing to $1.01B total ETF assets.Spot outflows surge to $29.82M on February 11 as price tests the $1.35 psychological support zone.
XRP price today trades near $1.3723, down nearly 2% in the past 24 hours after breaking below the descending trendline that has guided price action since July. The move comes as Goldman Sachs disclosed $153 million in XRP exposure through regulated ETFs, yet spot outflows and technical weakness continue to pressure the token.
Goldman Sachs Reveals XRP Holdings Through ETFs
According to its Q4 2025 13F filing, Goldman Sachs now holds approximately $153 million in XRP exposure through spot ETFs. The bank’s crypto portfolio includes $1.1 billion in Bitcoin, $1 billion in Ethereum, $153 million in XRP, and $108 million in Solana.
The exposure comes through regulated investment vehicles rather than direct token custody. Goldman’s XRP holdings spread across multiple products including Bitwise XRP ETF, Franklin Templeton $XRP ETF, Grayscale XRP ETF, and 21Shares XRP ETF. The bank’s $153 million investment contributes significantly to the $1.01 billion in total XRP ETF assets.
On the day of disclosure, XRP ETFs recorded $3.26 million in new inflows, with only Bitwise and Grayscale posting positive flows. Trading volume reached $15 million, indicating modest institutional activity despite the major disclosure.
Spot Outflows Accelerate As Selling Pressure Mounts

Spot flows tell a different story. Coinglass data shows XRP recorded $29.82 million in net outflows on February 11, one of the largest single-session exits in recent weeks. 
When spot outflows reach this magnitude while ETF flows remain modest, it signals that broader market participants are reducing exposure faster than institutions are accumulating.
All Major EMAs Turn Into Resistance

On the daily chart, $XRP has broken below every major moving average. The 20-day EMA sits at $1.5922, the 50-day at $1.7950, the 100-day at $1.9889, and the 200-day at $2.1787. All four EMAs are stacked downward, creating a clear resistance ceiling.
The chart shows:
Price breaking below the descending trendline from the July peakMultiple failed attempts to reclaim the 20-day EMASupport zone at $1.50 now being tested
XRP lost the $1.50 support level that held through most of January. The break places the token at its lowest level since late 2024 and opens the door to a retest of the $1.35 psychological zone. RSI sits at 32.79, approaching oversold territory but not yet showing reversal signals.
A daily close below $1.35 would confirm a clean breakdown and expose the next demand zone near $0.50, where price consolidated before the July rally. Without reclaiming the 20-day EMA at $1.5922, the structure remains decisively bearish.
Descending Trendline Caps Recovery Attempts

The 30-minute chart reveals XRP testing support near $1.3702 after breaking below the descending trendline. Parabolic SAR dots sit above price at $1.3546, confirming bearish momentum. RSI holds at 44.45, neutral but declining as sellers defend each bounce attempt.
The structure shows:
Price trading below the descending resistance lineLower highs forming since February 9SAR flipping bearish after failed breakout attempts
Buyers need to reclaim $1.40 and break above the descending trendline to shift momentum back toward neutral. Until that happens, every bounce remains a relief rally inside a bearish pattern. The chart shows no signs of capitulation, but also no signs of demand stepping in to defend current levels.
Outlook: Will XRP Go Up?
The next move depends on whether $XRP can hold the $1.35 support zone.
Bullish case: A bounce from $1.35 with a close above $1.40 and the descending trendline would shift momentum and place $1.50 back in range. Reclaiming $1.5922 confirms trend exhaustion.Bearish case: A daily close below $1.35 exposes the $1.00 psychological level and eventually the $0.50 demand zone from mid-2024. Losing $1.35 marks a new multi-month low.
#Xrp🔥🔥 #TrendingTopic #Write2Earn

Bitcoin’s double-digit rebound and brief trading above $72,000 may confirm $60,000 was the bottom, but data shows top traders are refusing to open longs.
Key takeaways:
The Bitcoin long-to-short indicator at Binance hit a 30-day low, signaling a sharp decline in bullish leverage demand.US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds reversed a negative trend with $516 million in net inflows following a period of heavy liquidations.
$BTC $67,507  has fluctuated within a tight 8% range over the last four days, consolidating near $69,000 after an abrupt slide to $60,130 on Friday. Traders are currently grappling with the primary catalysts for this correction, particularly as the S&P 500 holds near record highs and gold prices have climbed 20% over a two-month period.
The uncertainty following the 52% retreat from Bitcoin’s $126,220 all-time high in October 2025 has likely prompted an ultra-skeptical stance among top traders, stoking concerns of further price declines.

Whales and market makers on Binance have steadily pared back bullish exposure since Wednesday. This shift is reflected in the long-to-short ratio, which dropped to 1.20 from 1.93. This reading represents a 30-day low for the exchange, suggesting that demand for leveraged long positions in margin and futures markets has cooled, even with BTC hitting 15-month lows.
Meanwhile, the long-to-short ratio for top traders at OKX hit 1.7 on Tuesday, a sharp reversal from its 4.3 peak on Thursday. This transition aligns with a $1 billion liquidation event in leveraged bullish BTC futures, where market participants were forced to close positions due to inadequate margin. Importantly, this specific data point reflects forced exits rather than a deliberate directional bet on further downside.
Strong ETF demand suggests Bitcoin whales are still bullish
Demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) serves as strong evidence that whales haven’t flipped bearish, despite recent price weakness.

Since Friday, US-listed Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $516 million in net inflows, reversing a trend from the previous three trading days. Consequently, the conditions that triggered the $2.2 billion in net outflows from Jan. 27 to Feb. 5 appear to have faded. A leading theory for that pressure pointed to an Asian fund that collapsed after leveraging ETF options positions via cheap Japanese yen funding.
Franklin Bi, a general partner at Pantera Capital, argued that a non-crypto-native trading company is the most likely culprit. He noted that a broader cross-asset margin unwind coincided with sharp corrections in metals. For instance, silver faced a staggering 45% decline in the seven days ending Feb. 5, erasing two months of gains. However, official data has yet to be released to validate this thesis.
The Bitcoin options market followed a similar trajectory, with a spike in neutral-to-bearish strategies on Thursday. Traders pivoted after Bitcoin’s price slipped below $72,000 rather than anticipating worsening conditions.

The BTC options premium put-to-call ratio at Deribit surged to 3.1 on Thursday, heavily favoring put (sell) instruments, though the indicator has since retreated to 1.7. Overall, the past two weeks have been marked by low demand for bullish positioning through BTC derivatives. While sentiment has worsened, lower leverage provides a healthier setup for sustainable price gains once the tide turns.
It remains unclear what could shift investor perception back toward Bitcoin, as core values like censorship resistance and strict monetary policy stay unchanged. The weak demand for Bitcoin derivatives should not be interpreted as a lack of confidence. Instead, it represents a surge in uncertainty until it becomes clear that exchanges and market makers were unaffected by the price crash.
Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed sentiment indicator fell to its lowest ever level, leading some analysts to suggest that $60,000 was the bottom for BTC. Does historical data agree?
Key takeaways:
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to a record low of 7, showing extreme fear in the market.More than $5.5 billion in short liquidations above current prices may fuel a rebound.Weak price trends and rising derivatives selling may still drag Bitcoin below $60,000.
Sentiment and liquidation suggest $60,000 remains support
MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin is flashing sentiment readings that have previously marked market bottoms. According to Van De Poppe, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index had dropped to 5 over the weekend (final recorded reading is 7), its lowest reading in history, while the daily relative strength index (RSI) for BTC has fallen to 15, signaling deeply oversold conditions.

These levels were last seen during the 2018 bear market and the March 2020 COVID-19 crash. Van de Poppe said such conditions may allow BTC to recover and avoid an immediate retest of the $60,000 level.
CoinGlass data adds to the bullish case. Bitcoin’s liquidation heatmap shows over $5.45 billion in cumulative short liquidations positioned if the price moves roughly $10,000 higher, compared with $2.4 billion in liquidations on a retest of $60,000.
This imbalance suggests that an upward move may trigger forced shorts covering, leading to a BTC rally.

BTC structural weakness keeps downside risks in focus
Data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin trading below its 50-day moving average near $87,000, while further below the 200-day moving average around $102,000. This wide gap reflects a corrective or “repricing” phase following the prior rally.

CryptoQuant’s Price Z-Score is also negative at -1.6, indicating BTC is trading below its statistical mean, a sign of selling pressure and trend exhaustion. Such conditions have preceded extended base-building rather than immediate rebounds.
Crypto analyst Darkfost highlighted a growing selling dominance in the derivatives markets. Monthly net taker volume has turned sharply negative at -$272 million on Sunday, while Binance’s taker buy-sell ratio has slipped below 1, signaling a strong selling pressure.
With futures volumes outweighing spot flows at the moment, stronger spot demand is needed to trigger a bullish reaction from BTC.
Adding a longer-term caution, Bitcoin investor Jelle noted that past Bitcoin bear market bottoms formed below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. For the current cycle, that level sits near $57,000, with deeper downside scenarios extending toward $42,000 if history repeats.

#BTC #bitcoin #fear&greed #TrendingTopic

This is the Bitcoin Situation for the Next 3 Years

Since last August I warned that the $108,000 level could not be lost in Bitcoin or else we entered a bearish cycle and it was going to be hard.

I am not a guru nor do I have a crystal ball.

But I try to get informed and I dedicate a lot of time to understanding what a Halving is. I understand mining costs. I understand staking. I understand leverage.

But above all we need to understand how all this leads us to CYCLES.

This chart is very powerful for understanding Bitcoin.

Each line is a cycle since its Halving. This event happens every 4 years.

The first cycle (the blue one) made the high somewhat earlier but the following cycles have made their highs at the same moment. All the lows have happened one year after reaching this high.

This last cycle (the strong yellow one) looks smaller and this is not a coincidence. Notice that each cycle is smaller than the previous one.

And this makes sense.

Bitcoin cycles are INFLATIONARY AND LOGARITHMIC.

Inflationary and logarithmic?

This is vital. Let me translate it for you.

Bitcoin should follow inflation because it is a finite asset like gold or real estate in certain areas.

Easy but logarithmic?

This is something you can't IGNORE anymore.

🤔 Bitcoin cycles go up less every time.

One reason is that the more an asset capitalizes the more it costs to keep it going up. Money in the world is finite and therefore when something capitalizes billions it starts to be complicated to make it grow in a faster rate than inflation.

But you must also know that in the Halvings the rewards to miners are reduced.

At the beginning this meant a beastly reduction of many BTCs which drove the price very high. But now the reward is barely reduced by 3 or 1 BTC so the price cannot rise at the same pace.

If we pay attention to previous cycles Bitcoin will keep falling in 2026 until the end of the year before starting a recovery. This is the most likely scenario right now.

So much for Bitcoin theory so let us go to the practical part.

🚀 Where will this low happen?

I do not know and nobody knows but we have clues.

In each of the cycles we have seen the price retreat from highs.

And a lot.

The first cycle down 85%
The second down 80%
The third down 75%

And now?

Maybe 70%? It could be. It is just an approximation.

This last drop to $60,000 is already a great milestone as the price has corrected 50% but in previous cycles we see that the best is still to come. It can fall another 50% down to $30k or $40k to meet the levels close to 70% correction which would seem plausible based on previous behavior.

In terms of price it seems there is a gap to fill and in terms of time it is even better.

Correction time of first cycle is 12 months
Correction time of second cycle is 12 months
Correction time of third cycle is 12 months

If this fourth cycle lasts the same as the previous ones we will be talking about seeing the moment of maximum pain in October 2026.

That is the moment where we will all say that $BTC is going to 0.

Who knows.

But, if we start accumulating in the $60k zone and save some money for the $30-40k area, we could easily average a $50k position during 2026.

After three years we should be at the next cycle peak which following a logarithmic progression could be somewhat higher than these last $120k (current cycle peak).

Let us assume $150k. (Which is a number I get from the serie of previous rallies, but there is too much math for today)

We are talking about selling the investment for triple the price in 3 years. That is a return that is not bad at all.

The risk is total. I go without a Stop Loss. It is aspirational investment and in no case is it capital protection.

And while we wait for the price to reach the right zone to keep buying, you could also make a quick trade to catch the next 10% rally.

👇 WANT MORE?

🚀 Hit the rocket, read my profile and follow so we can find each other again.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic