小焕很宅

Since the last viewpoint was published, $ASTER has increased by about 30%,
during which most assets remain in a retraction or fluctuation structure.
This indicates that current funds are not flowing back comprehensively, but rather are being selectively priced in a structural manner.

From a cyclical position, the market is still in the stage of risk repair and expectation rebuilding,
funds are prioritized to be allocated to assets with elasticity + narrative bearing capacity,
not a logic of universal increase.

The strength of $ASTER is essentially an advance pricing for the next stage of the game:
The track expectations are being reshaped
Funds are betting on the elastic core for the next major rise
Liquidity is starting to concentrate on high-odds assets

If the cycle enters a stage of further risk appetite elevation,
high-elasticity targets usually form an excess return advantage in the early stages.

The market will not reward everyone at the same time,
but will prioritize rewarding assets that are ahead in the correct cyclical position.

The key moving forward is not in emotional judgment,
but in who will become the leading variable in the next round of structural market trends.

Recently, exchange equity-type assets represented by $BNB have shown insufficient momentum, while other exchanges' platform tokens have performed relatively weaker. This reflects a decline in the current stage of capital's risk appetite for platform-type equity assets.

Meanwhile, $ASTER has shown a significant relative strength.

This is not a contradiction of emotions, but rather a change in the structure of risk preferences:
When the market chooses to bet on Binance as the main line,
capital tends to allocate assets with higher elasticity and sector attributes,
rather than low volatility, equity-like foundational platform tokens.

In the phase of elevated risk appetite,
high-elasticity assets usually receive higher premiums,
which may temporarily suppress the relative performance of $BNB .

The essence of the market is a capital redistribution driven by efficiency.
The differentiation of strength and weakness is essentially a choice of capital regarding odds, rather than an emotional judgment.

In this round of decline, the rebound of $ASTER is considered quite strong.

The subsequent development of Binance will definitely revolve around DEX, which must be a core battleground to seize.

Therefore, the odds of holding $ASTER will be higher than most mainstream coins.

This rebound, among the best in liquidity,
the strongest is $ASTER
almost without hesitation, it is clear that there is capital seizing the opportunity.

$ETH performs normally, following the rebound, but with average performance.

During the rebound phase, it is easiest to see who is strong and who is weak.
If the market allows in the future, $ASTER should be able to create a wave of independent行情.

Recently, the negative emotions around $ETH and $ASTER are truly heavy.
But being in this industry sometimes makes you subconsciously see more.

It may be related to the experience of entering the circle:
Entering the market in 2020, encountering black swans at the level of 312 and 519.
At that time, whether in terms of decline or market panic level, it was much more exaggerated than now.

But it was also from that round that I continued to hold on to the spot market,
and the rewards in the following periods are visible to everyone.

Having experienced a complete cycle from two bear markets to a bull market.
Many things will become calmer:
No longer being swayed by short-term emotions, and not rushing to prove that I am right.

Under the premise of controlling risk,
what needs to be done is to patiently wait.
Emotions will fluctuate, but the cycle will not be absent.

Last year, when $ASTER was above 2U, the plan for building positions below 1U had already been set.

The logic at that time was:
In a bear market, Perp DEX's trading volume and income will definitely drop,
The price of the coin not only follows the market downturn but will also be further devalued by worsening data.
But once we enter a bull market, the situation is exactly the opposite: volume increases → income rises → narrative holds → price spirals upward.

So in my view, Perp DEX is the standard target for value buying in a bear market.

If the overall direction is correct, what remains is patience and execution.
I also summarized a few increasingly confident conclusions:

1. A truly good target has independent trends; it won't follow the mood of $BTC every day, resisting declines in weak markets and leading gains in strong markets.

2. For medium to long-term bottom fishing, you must plan in advance, and stop analyzing too much on Twitter; many so-called analysts can't even come up with two cents.

3. Since it's about building positions in batches, don't be obsessed with the lowest point;
Good prices and good news are hard to appear simultaneously;
Low costs and large positions are also almost impossible to obtain at the same time.

Currently held positions: $ETH , $ASTER , $WLFI
Although most are bearish, I still insist on doing my own trading well; one should not easily change direction due to the current fluctuations. In investing, there is no perfect timing; the most important thing is long-term patience and strategy,

Recently, BMNR and MicroStrategy have been buying crazily, and CZ is also shouting that a super bull market is coming, but the market just doesn’t rise, and now the stock market, gold, and silver are all surging. Many risk-averse funds see the stock market and gold and silver rising too sharply and are withdrawing from crypto, turning to other places.

It’s once again the stage where bulls and bears call each other idiots; the market is something that is waited for. Before the market moves, there is no right or wrong, the financial market has no right or wrong, only profit and loss.

Why can $ETH of 1600 keep holding on until now,
Why does $ASTER , which everyone shouts is falling, continue to buy,
The logic is actually very simple.

If you are optimistic about a bull market, just buy;
If you judge that we are entering a bear market, then clear.
That's all there is to it.

When others are fearful, you have to be bold,
but you also have to accept a fact:
You may incur losses,
and you will never buy at the lowest, nor sell at the highest.

We have never aimed to appear overly ostentatious or calm,
but simply to record our own understanding and real operations.
There is no betting against anyone,
earning or losing, is all the result given by the market.

What is truly valuable is
the process of constantly correcting ourselves,
seeing the cycle clearly,
and being able to meet a group of people on the same path.

$ASTER The team itself is very strong.
Execution is on point, and the strategic direction hasn’t deviated.
The key is that the team structure is very complementary; some understand products, some understand trading, and some understand ecological advancement.

This configuration really resembles the early Binance team, where everyone plays their role, the rhythm is clear, and things are implemented step by step.

Whether the project can go far depends heavily on the team's long-term reliability.

$ASTER This wave of market trends has likely seen the bottom appear, and the low points are starting to rise.

If it can follow through for a while, it should quickly return to near the CZ cost, but the prerequisite is that $BTC must stand above 97000.

$ASTER currently cannot develop an independent trend.
As I mentioned before, I am cautious about BTC; if the big coin starts to crash down, ASTER has a chance of dropping to around 0.65.

At this stage, ASTER is indeed underperforming compared to the market, having retraced 65% from its ATH.

It's hard for ASTER to truly turn around on its own. Whether it can develop an independent trend still depends on the movement of the big coin.

$ASTER With the launch of the L1 mainnet, continuous buybacks, increasing DEX trading volume, and ecological expansion, you think the performance in the next cycle shouldn't be too bad.

The launch of the L1 mainnet is a significant milestone:
Once the mainnet is truly operational, it will bring more on-chain assets, more users, and more complex DeFi models, truly giving ASTER a growth logic.

Continuous buybacks lead to supply tightening:
As selling pressure is gradually absorbed and supply decreases, it inherently supports the price.

DEX activity + ecological expansion
User activity, trading behavior, and LP liquidity will all drive demand growth. Compared to relying solely on narratives, ecological participation is more important.

So $ASTER if these factors continue to materialize in 2026, the next cycle will definitely be a trend-driven rise.

Are there any differing opinions, brothers? Let's discuss in the comments, all kinds of different views are welcome, but there must be a basis for them (=^ェ^=)

$ETH is a base asset, $ASTER is a trend asset.

For ordinary investors, the most important thing to learn is patience.
Frequent trading and back-and-forth transactions, when viewed over a longer period, show that most people are just paying tuition to institutions and platforms.

The market's story changes with each round of bull and bear, but the only constant is the assets that transcend cycles.
Take it slow, move less, and spend time on the right assets.

emmmm, $GIGGLE is still here, brothers.

I've just deliberately stopped checking on it recently.
Under the impact of Chinese memes, its popularity has dropped to below zero.
At this stage, reducing attention on it might be a better choice.

Sometimes the more you focus,
the more your emotions get pulled by the price.
I'm really afraid that one day I'll accidentally
sell my position without realizing it.

So now I'm not adding, not reducing, not looking.

#币安钱包 launched Perp DEX based on $ASTER so quickly,
which is the most direct response to the so-called 'succession struggle' incident.

Genuis received investment from YZiLabs, but the underlying development is directly based on $ASTER .

In short, to get support from Binance ecosystem,
just integrate $ASTER first.

The direction, path, and priority are clearly laid out.

$ASTER has taken a leading position in the PerpDEX market, fully integrated with SafePal, Trust Wallet, and Binance Wallet.

Open interest has just reached a new high in nearly two months, and capital is beginning to re-focus. In terms of scale and product maturity, $ASTER and $HYPE are now on par.

Binance Wallet has introduced a new reward mechanism, and airdrop unlocking is now underway—now we just need the news of a price ATH!

Market sentiment is improving.
Current position remains unchanged: $ETH , $ASTER , $WLFI

For ordinary people, the real challenge has never been about predicting direction,
but having the courage and patience to hold on.

Ultimately, the market is fair:
If you want to save time, you have to spend money;
if you don't have much money, you have to spend time;
if your understanding is limited, you can only rely on luck to gamble.

You can't have all three at once,
you can only trade two for one.

Actually forgot about this purchase of $BNB ,
It was bought to qualify for VIP status and reduce transaction fees,
But it turned out to be the most profitable move in recent years.

$BNB has recently started to show signs of activity.

This is crucial for $ASTER and the entire BNBChain ecosystem.
If BNB truly strengthens, on-chain sentiment will follow suit.

If BNB can effectively break through and hold above 930U,
BNBChain is likely to experience a systemic rally, rather than just isolated pump.

More importantly,
this step will make the 'super cycle' narrative no longer empty talk.

The price of $ASTER is still weak, and there are two reasons for this:

First, the overall market truly lacks liquidity.
Second, the current repurchase intensity is still insufficient to absorb the shares unlocked.

If $ASTER is to embark on a meaningful recovery,
Q1 is a good time window.

But if it doesn't pick up during the first quarter,
then this situation will have to be viewed over a longer period:
Wait for substantial progress in L1
Wait for the unlocking pressure to gradually ease
Enter a longer period of consolidation / accumulation phase

Bought at 1600, $ETH , why not sell at 4800?

To be honest, if I had known it would drop back below 3000,
I would have sold everything at 4800,
but the truth is, no one knows the answer before the market moves.

My first purchase of $ETH was at 2000,
and after buying, it dropped straight to 1400.
At that time, many people told me to sell because it would go to 500.
I did waver, as the market sentiment was truly awful back then.

After holding it for several months, when the rebound started,
from 2000 to 3000,
another group of people urged me to sell,
saying it was just a short-term bounce after a sharp drop, and it would fall again soon.

As everyone can see now.
I exited my principal at 4200,
and held the rest until today.

The most amusing part is,
the people who were shouting 500 at the beginning,
started saying 8000 when ETH hit above 4000.

The market always works this way.
Before the price moves, everyone is just expressing their own emotions.
You must stick to your own trading plan,
and filter out the noise—only you can be responsible for your own funds.