小龙先生

BTC Short-term Contract Trading Strategy in Volatile Market

Let's first take a look at the current market analysis and order logic of Bitcoin:

1) Four-hour: In the past few days, the bearish volume has been significantly stronger than the bullish volume, but the bearish volume is small and lacks sustainability. Therefore, the price is oscillating and declining within a downward channel;

2) Daily: The center of the candlesticks is moving downwards, and the price is oscillating and declining. It is highly likely that it will test the bottom above $62,800 again;

3) ETF Institutions: Yesterday, there was a net outflow of $270 million, and the recent net outflow is greater than the net inflow. ETF institutions seem to be large-scale retail investors that buy high and sell low.

4) Important US CPI data will be released tonight Beijing time, which is expected to be good news. This could stimulate the BTC price to potentially rebound to the upper boundary of the downward channel around $67,000.

Based on the above four points of logical analysis, it is highly likely that the BTC price will continue to oscillate and decline along the downward channel. If the price rebounds, it will face resistance at the upper pressure level and may again drop to around $62,800. The price of BTC is currently unlikely to plummet directly to around $40,000; instead, it is more likely to continue wide-range oscillation, with the price potentially rebounding again to around $72,000.

Therefore, the short-term trading strategy for BTC is to short on highs. We can short BTC lightly when the price rebounds to around $67,000, with the take-profit point set around $62,800 and the stop-loss point set around $68,000.

Remember, it is currently a wide-range oscillation market rather than a one-sided trend market. Contract trading is suitable for light positions and quick entry and exit strategies.

BTC Short-term Market Analysis Early Shift

First, let's review, and then comment on the current BTC market.
From January 2022 to June 2022, the ascending channel + symmetrical triangle's downward continuation structure and oscillation period are very similar to the current downward structure and oscillation period from November 2025 to present.

History always has striking similarities. The current oscillation range of 60,000-72,000, with the recent rebound high also at the 0.618 position of a small Fibonacci retracement, can the price rebound to around 74,500? Looking at the volume, this seems a bit uncertain and difficult.

Now let's take a look at the latest BTC market trend:

1) Four-hour: Both bullish and bearish volumes are quite sluggish, with bearish volume slightly stronger, and any favorable rebounds are pushed down, indicating a weak market;
2) Daily: Three consecutive small bearish candlesticks, the price center is gradually moving down;
3) The consensus among the public and institutions in the crypto space on BTC entering a bear market has been reached, and bear market rebounds are opportunities to escape, with a major bottom around 40,000;

BTC is highly likely to test the bottom around 62,800 again.

BTC Short-term Market Analysis and Trading Strategy:

1) On the four-hour chart, both bullish and bearish volumes are shrinking, and price fluctuations are small, estimated to oscillate in the range of 68,000-71,000 for a while;
2) The order book is thin, with both buy and sell orders being small, and both sides are evenly matched;
3) ETF institutions had a net inflow of only 145 million yesterday; in a sluggish market, this is considered decent for ETFs;

In the subsequent market, BTC is expected to oscillate in the range of 68,000-71,000 for a while, and there is a high probability it will rebound to around 74,500.

With a balance of intensity and relaxation, the duality of literature and martial arts. BTC experienced a period of unilateral downward trend a few days ago; without negative news, it won't initiate a downward trend in a short time.

Prices need to oscillate and build momentum, and market makers need to cultivate a group of bullish counterparties. Around March 6, BTC is expected to face another wave of downward trend. Keep the rhythm and hit the price level, one son: act.

Short-term trading strategy: Short near 71,000, go long above 68,000, and trade lightly in the short term.

BTC price prediction chart for the next month (Chart 1)

Speculated price trend from February 6 to March 6, 2026:
BTC price fluctuates up and down for about 30 days, frequently creating resistance levels, forming a triangular descending continuation structure, with a rebound peak around 74,500, and then starting a unilateral downward trend, with a target price around 40,000.

Theoretical fluctuation period: 30 days;
Theoretical rebound increase: 25%;
Predicted rebound peak: around 74,500.

BTC weekly level 5-wave decline model: (Chart 2)
1) Currently, the BTC price is in the rebound wave of the 4th wave; it is estimated that the rebound period will end around March 6;
2) The 5th wave is the last wave of the downward trend, with considerable impact, causing despair among many retail investors and institutions, dropping to around 40,000, breaking out of the golden pit;
3) After the 5th wave, the bottom will consolidate for about two to three months, and it may even create new lows to induce short selling, with a drop to 38,000 also possible.

Teach you how to capture the market bottom price of this round of Bitcoin bear market!

Personal estimation:
1) BTC is highly likely to fall to the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.786, which is around 40,000;
2) This round of bear market is expected to bottom out and end around October 5th this year;

If the BTC price falls to 40,000-50,000 around October, start buying in batches: when it falls to the price of 50,000, first buy 20% of the position, buy 30% of the position when it falls to 45,000, and if the price falls to 40,000, continue to buy 30%. In extreme cases, if BTC falls below 38,000, buy the remaining 20% of the position.

The article below published on Binance Square explains in detail why BTC in this round of bear market will fall to around the market bottom price of 40,000 👇

BTC is expected to enter a wide-ranging volatility market in about a month!

1) Even in a bear market, there can be strong rebounds; a severe oversell will lead to a rebound. BTC quickly dropped from 98,000 to 60,000, a decline of 38,000, which is a severe oversell;
2) BTC rebounded from 80,000 to 98,000 over nearly two months. Now, it is rebounding from 60,000 to 75,000–78,000, and will at least consolidate for about a month, possibly close to two months;
3) The rebound target price is seen at 75,000–78,000. If it rebounds to 83,500, that would be beyond expectations;
4) After BTC rebounds to the target price and consolidates for about a month, the price will again start to decline, with a target price around 40,000.
5) Around 40,000 will undergo a prolonged sideways consolidation to build a bottom, lasting at least more than two months. Therefore, we have enough time and foresight to catch the epic market bottom.

Currently, the contract trading in the ongoing volatility market is only suitable for quick in-and-out actions, rather than opening a position. To establish a subsequent medium-term short position for BTC, one must wait patiently for about a month, and then wait for the price to rebound to 75,000–78,000 or even 83,500.

A chart that helps you understand the price trend of Bitcoin for the next year and when to buy at the bottom!

BTC recently fell to sixty thousand, reaching the weekly Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618, where there is strong support, and will start a rebound. The target price for the rebound is around seventy-four thousand five hundred. In the next half month, the price of BTC may fluctuate and accumulate in the range of 60,000-74,500.

Next, the Bitcoin price will break this consolidation structure, continue to decline and seek the bottom, initiating a downward trend, with the estimated price likely to drop to the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.786, which is in the range of thirty-eight thousand to forty thousand. The decline is about -70%; if calculated based on the historical bear market duration of 12 months, this bear market will likely end around October 5, 2026.

This means that the true market bottom price for Bitcoin is between thirty-eight thousand and forty thousand, occurring before October of this year.

The chart is as follows, the price trend relatively follows the wave theory's five-wave decline:

In the next half month, BTC will enter a range-bound market rather than a trending market.

I have closed my long position of BTC at 63500 near 70500 for profit. Taking a break over the weekend, pausing contract trading.

Currently, BTC is neither up nor down. Based on the bullish volume and the accumulated buy orders in the order book, I believe the current price pullback is just a rebound consolidation. It is highly likely that it will continue to surge to around 74,500, and then only will it start a second bottoming above 60,000. Therefore, patiently waiting for BTC to rebound to around 74,500 to short BTC provides a better risk-reward ratio and certainty.

BTC has been consolidating in the range of 80,000-98,000 for 55 days before starting a new wave of downward trends.

Now BTC needs to fluctuate in the range of 60,000-75,000, which is estimated to take more than half a month. BTC is unlikely to drop directly from 75,000 to 40,000; it needs to oscillate and build up momentum repeatedly before it can drop deeper and more sharply.

Therefore, in the next half month or so, BTC is highly likely to enter a range-bound market rather than a one-sided trending market.

The bear market has arrived. What is the true bottom price of Bitcoin and the possible timing?\n\nThe price of BTC has plummeted to $60,000 at an astonishing speed, far exceeding many people's expectations. Are you also wondering: what is the true bottom price of Bitcoin in this bear market? When will the bull market return? This article will take you deep into the recent trends, dissecting key points for the coming year from capital flows, long and short battles to market sentiment, while also predicting the true bottom of the bear market here and possible timing. Please see below 👇

The market is not a battlefield, yet it tests one's character more than a battlefield. Most people rush in with the fervor of gamblers, only to scatter like the receding tide, leaving behind a sigh of regret. They mistakenly regard contract trading as a lever to amplify their desires, rather than a dojo for refining one's character.

Little do they know, those who can traverse the bull and bear markets hold a key that is not merely courage or arithmetic, but a balance that is as subtle as art and as strong as nature.

Technique + mindset, neither can be lacking. Three parts technique, seven parts mindset. Trading is like being a person; it's difficult to excel in contract trading, and even harder to reach a higher realm of being! Even if it is challenging, one must face difficulties head-on, strive for excellence, and not give in to despair or dejection.

What transcends the bull and bear markets is not a single precise long or short position, but a trading soul that becomes increasingly full and clear through countless shifts between longs and shorts.

No longer just a market participant, but part of the market's rhythm, like the robustness of the bull that carries the earth, and the sharpness of the bear that perceives the slightest changes.

The alternation of bulls and bears is merely the breath of heaven and earth, and in each inhalation and exhalation, one strives for excellence, continuously growing, ultimately becoming the most enduring and silent stronghold in the market.

I am Mr. Xiao Long, a small seedling growing robustly in the field of contract trading and spot trading.

To refine and strengthen contract trading, it really can traverse bull and bear markets.

However, I am still just a young sapling of contract trading that is growing vigorously. I wish that one day I can grow into a "tall tree" of contract trading and become a professional expert.

Going long is like being a bull, going short is like being a bear. Both bulls and bears are strong, striving for excellence and constantly growing.

BTC has dropped from 80,000 to 60,000, experiencing a continuous and rapid decline, which is sure to lead to a quick rebound.

Based on the currently strong bullish momentum over the last four hours, the likelihood of a final rebound to around 74,500 is very high! Once the rebound is complete, there will be another deep and significant drop, leading to market despair, with a large number of users' positions being liquidated and institutions facing massive losses.

The most desperate and terrifying crash in the market has not yet arrived, but it will ultimately come! The true bottom for BTC is around 38,000-40,000.

The oversold rebound of BTC has finally arrived!

On the weekly chart, BTC's price has dropped to near the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618, with a low of 60,000 and an expectation of 58,000, just 2,000 points apart.

On the daily chart, there is a divergence between BTC's volume and price, with the trading volume doubling compared to the volume on the day of 1011. This divergence indicates that the price is oversold, and a rebound trend is expected.

On the four-hour chart: Currently, it is a bullish candlestick with a long lower shadow, and we need to see how it closes at twelve o'clock.

The first target price for the rebound is 68,000, and the second target price is 74,500. Once the rebound is complete, BTC will once again decline to test the bottom, with the next bottom expected to be around 40,000.

Pay attention to position control after the rebound is in place and the risks of another decline to test the bottom.

The BTC rebound after a sharp decline has begun, with the first target price for the rebound estimated to be around 71,000, and the second target price around 75,800.

The speed and depth of this BTC drop exceeded expectations, and while a rebound was anticipated around 65,000, it actually fell sharply to around 62,500. Moving forward, BTC is likely to experience a small-level rebound, with the following logic:

1) Daily price drop with increased volume, a divergence between volume and price, with trading volume nearly double that of the 1011 crash;
2) The four-hour chart shows a dominant bearish energy, with bears being absolutely strong, limiting the height of the rebound, and further declines are expected;
3) There is a buildup of order book buy orders, but some orders have been canceled, so the overall buy order amount is not considered excessively large;
4) ETF institutions have become the main force in market sell-offs, while retail investors are buying the dip; therefore, as BTC rebounds, it is estimated that ETF institutions will continue to offload, as ETFs are the big players, buying high and selling low, and they move faster than anyone else.

Personally, I predict that a rebound to 71,000 for BTC would be good; if it can rebound to around 75,800, that would be beyond expectations. This is a dead cat bounce, and once the rebound is completed, further declines are still expected. It is estimated that BTC prices will drop to around 58,000 before a significant rebound occurs. Now, buying the dip can only be short-term trading, entering and exiting positions, as there will be further significant declines ahead.

For truly bottoming out BTC, there is no need to rush; there will be plenty of time and opportunities to buy BTC starting with a 5, and it might even be possible to buy BTC around 40,000.

BTC has fallen to above 65,000, and there is a high probability of a rebound!\nThe logic is as follows:\n\n1) BTC has dropped to around 65,000, and the current daily trading volume has exceeded the 1011 crash and the daily trading volume when it fell to 80,000. Currently, the BTC price shows a divergence between volume and price and is severely oversold; see Figure 1.\n\n2) The opinions of retail investors are very consistent: BTC will continue to drop straight down, and they will continue to short BTC. When the consensus among the public is high, the actual market trend is often the opposite.\n\n3) The amount of buy orders on the BTC order book is continuously accumulating, and the amount is getting larger, indicating that bottom-fishing is entering the market; see Figure 2.\n\nTherefore, I predict that BTC will fall to around 65,000, and there is a high probability of a rebound. BTC will bounce back up, and only then can it fall more violently and deeply!\n\nOf course, the less probable scenario is: BTC falls straight to the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618, which is around 58,000, before a larger rebound occurs.\n\nWe can patiently wait for 8 AM in the UTC+8 time zone, and after the daily close, we will look at the trading volume and bullish momentum to decide whether to enter for short-term trading.

Thank you, Ying Ge! Thank you, Binance Square, thank you, Binance!
@币安广场

Today BTC rapidly fell below the 70,000 mark, with the current price fluctuating around 67,000. The ETF institutions have been selling BTC too aggressively. Therefore, I am more confident in my two bold predictions in the crypto circle below. I believe the probability of these two bold predictions coming true is as high as 80%,

Bold Prediction One: This round of bear market cycle will last about 400 days, with a significant bottom expected to appear around mid-November this year, and the price is extremely close to 40,000.

Bold Prediction Two: In this bear market, the ETH price will spike down to around 1,000, and the long positions of some ETH institutions will eventually be liquidated in this bear market.

This post serves as evidence! Let time provide the answer.

Has BTC reached a temporary bottom?

1) The daily chart shows a downtrend, and while there hasn't been a significant volume spike, it is approaching the densely traded area near 68,000;
2) The order book is starting to show large buy orders, indicating that bottom-fishing is entering the market;
3) On the four-hour chart, there is still no sign of bullish volume or absolute strength from the bulls;

Based on the large buy orders in the order book, a temporary bottom is likely approaching, estimated around 68,000, just waiting for bullish signals. I believe that if Bitcoin drops to around 68,000, we will see a significant rebound, with an estimated peak around 80,000.

Friends, be prepared to enter for short-term bottom-fishing of BTC or to take small positions to go long on BTC.