aliumutzabun

I hope Bitcoin doesn't fall below $49,000; because this area is not only psychologically critical but also a technically significant EMA clustering zone. While the EMA 20 and EMA 50 on the daily chart show short-term pressure, the EMA 200, which is the main determinant, is still being maintained. In the 2021 downturn, the price fell below the EMA 200 and the structure completely broke down; today, the picture is different.
This process looks more like leverage clearing and liquidity hunting than a trend break. Whales are not taking full risk; approximately 35% of their positions are active, the rest are waiting in cash. In other words, big money is not acting aggressively without confirmation of direction. The real weakness lies on the altcoin side. New token issuance, key openings, and weak retail demand are dispersing liquidity; therefore, projects are struggling to maintain price stability.

However, macroeconomic conditions are not the same as in 2021: the ETF channel is open, stablecoin supply is not shrinking, and global liquidity has not been completely withdrawn. Therefore, I see the current pullback as a consolidation process rather than a structural collapse. Unless the EMA 200 is broken, the macroeconomic downturn scenario cannot be considered technically confirmed.

$BTC

It has been a long time since I’ve been this genuinely curious about where a project could be in five years. Not the next candle. Not the next breakout. Not the next hype cycle. I’m talking about real evolution over time.
Yes, I’m talking about $ASTER .
Just a few hours ago, the team announced that Aster Mainnet will be launching in March. For many, that might sound like a routine milestone. For me, it’s a defining moment.
Because a project’s true identity is not revealed in testnet. It’s revealed in mainnet.
Mainnet means real users.
Real liquidity.
Real stress conditions.
Real on-chain economics.
It’s where theory meets execution.
And this is exactly where ASTER is heading.
What makes ASTER different to me is that it’s not built around a single product narrative. It’s not just a trading interface. It’s not just a perp DEX trying to capture volume. It’s attempting to build infrastructure.
Liquidity architecture, depth management, low-latency execution, sustainable on-chain mechanics. These are not flashy buzzwords. They are the foundations of long-term value creation.
Many projects generate revenue. Very few build systems.
ASTER is trying to build a system.
When I compare it to Hyperliquid, the contrast becomes clearer.
Hyperliquid is a strong product. There’s volume. There’s user traction. There’s a working model. It’s proven, and that deserves respect. But Hyperliquid is primarily a product success story.
ASTER is positioning itself as an infrastructure and ecosystem story.
Products can be cyclical. Volume fluctuates. Competition intensifies. Market sentiment shifts. But well-designed infrastructure compounds over time. If built correctly, multiple products, integrations, and ecosystems can grow on top of it.
That’s where the asymmetry lies.
Hyperliquid has already priced in much of its success. It’s more established, more recognized. That often means lower uncertainty, but also potentially lower surprise.
ASTER, on the other hand, is entering its mainnet phase. Its real on-chain metrics are about to begin. This is still early.
Early stage means risk, yes.
But it also means upside.
Markets tend to price hype early and infrastructure late. But when infrastructure proves itself, repricing can be aggressive. I see ASTER in that category.
Now let’s address something people mention often: CZ’s reported $2M investment at a $0.90 cost basis. This isn’t about “buy because CZ bought.” That’s not how I think. But when serious capital allocates into a project, it usually means deeper due diligence has taken place beyond short-term price action.
Institutional-level players don’t enter for a random candle. They enter for structural potential.
With Mainnet launching in March, several things become measurable:
Real TVL dynamics
Real user behavior
Real revenue testing
Real execution under pressure
That’s what I’m watching.
Some projects are positioned for the next pump. Others are positioned for the next cycle. ASTER, in my view, belongs to the second category.
Short-term volatility will exist. Corrections will happen. The broader market may remain uncertain. But strong projects build in weak markets and get priced in strong ones.
Five years from now, I don’t know exactly where ASTER will stand.
But I do know this:
It has been a long time since I’ve been this interested in watching a project evolve at the infrastructure level.
And that curiosity is not driven by hype.
It’s driven by the possibility of witnessing a system being built.
For me, that’s what $ASTER represents.

#AsterDEX $ASTER