Bitcoin has regained some footing after a volatile start to the year. The top cryptocurrency rebounded from a local trough of roughly $60,000 in early February and is trading near $71,000 — a roughly 7.2% gain over the past month (press time price: $71,639). The rally comes amid intensifying geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East. According to reports, after a coordinated US–Israel strike on Iran, Tehran has moved to close the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint that handles about 20% of global oil flows. The closure raises the prospect of a meaningful disruption to global energy supplies. In a QuickTake on CryptoQuant, XWIN Research Japan warns that a prolonged stoppage of traffic through the strait could trigger an energy shock. With few viable alternatives for the same shipping capacity, continued cuts to shipping activity would likely push oil and gas prices higher, feeding broader inflation given how central petroleum products are to modern economies. That inflationary pressure tends to provoke tighter monetary policy. Central banks commonly respond to energy-driven inflation by hiking rates to cool activity, which can drive investors toward yield-bearing fiat assets (notably the US dollar) and away from volatile risk assets. XWIN’s analysis suggests Bitcoin behaves like a risk asset during geopolitical stress, so an initial wave of BTC outflows would be likely if the Strait remains closed. However, the firm emphasizes that the market impact will depend more on the financial ecosystem’s response than the energy shock alone. Key drivers will be global liquidity conditions, central-bank policy moves, and overall market leverage. Traders and investors should watch derivatives metrics closely: rising Open Interest alongside extreme funding rates can indicate crowded positions and a fragile market structure prone to sharp corrections if a shock hits. Bottom line: Bitcoin has climbed back above $70k, but renewed geopolitical risk and the potential for policy-driven market flows mean volatility could increase. Keep a close eye on OI and funding rates for signals of positioning stress while policymakers react to any sustained energy disruption. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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