The Fed published a research note that nobody read.
I found something EXTREMELY BAD.
Life insurers now have MORE exposure to below investment grade debt than they had to subprime mortgage bonds in late 2007.
Read that again.
WORSE than 2007.
PRIVATE CREDIT: ~$3 TRILLION.
This isn't a small corner, it's a core pillar for pensions, insurers, and big money, and it's already cracking.
Default rate is ~5.8% and moving higher.
Only 7 of 46 publicly traded private credit funds trade at or above their stated value.
That one fact explains a lot, because if the books were clean, those funds wouldn't trade at a discount.
PIMCO's head of alternatives said it clearly: "Is the industry built for extended redemptions? My answer is no."
THIS IS NOT GOOD AT ALL.
And this isn't the only fault line, it's one of many, and they're all flashing at the same time.
Treasury basis trade: ~$1.4 TRILLION, about 2x what it was when the bond market froze in March 2020.
Hedge fund leverage just hit the highest level ever recorded.
Institutional cash just hit the lowest.
Margin debt just printed its 7th straight all time high.
Now connect the dots.
When leverage is this high and cash is this low, there's no buffer, so any shock spreads fast and forces selling.
And insiders are already acting like they know what's next.
CEOs and CFOs are selling stock at the fastest pace in the dataset's history.
Buy/sell ratio: 0.24, about 30% below the 10 year median.
Central banks are doing the same thing, just bigger.
They're buying gold at the fastest pace in history, and gold's share of reserves just passed Treasuries for the first time since 1996.
They're telling you what they think about the system they run.
Insiders are voting with their own money, institutions are voting with other people's money, and the gap between them has NEVER been wider.
One side is going to get destroyed.
I'm mapping the fault lines and the trigger path now, and I'll post the next part soon.
I've studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.
Follow and turn notifications on.
I'll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.
