$BTC $DOGE $PEPE As of February 15, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately $68,869 on the daily timeframe.
The 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $94,134.
BTC is currently 27% below this level — a clear bearish signal on the long-term chart.The 200 EMA is widely regarded as the primary bull/bear filter for Bitcoin:
Price above the 200 EMA → long-term uptrend intact (typical bull-market behaviour).Price below the 200 EMA → long-term downtrend or deep correction.
BTC has been trading well below the 200 EMA for weeks, following a decline from highs above $100,000. This distance (~$25,000 gap) means the 200 EMA now acts as major overhead resistance. Reclaiming it would require a sustained rally of more than 36% from current levels and would be a significant bullish reversal signal. Until then, the long-term trend remains bearish.Bollinger Bands Analysis (Daily, 20-period, 2 SD)
Middle band (20-day SMA): ~$74,141Upper band: ~$89,538Lower band: ~$58,744Band width: ~41.5% (moderate-to-high volatility, no squeeze)
BTC is trading inside the bands and below the middle band (roughly 7% below the 20-day SMA).
This is not an extreme overbought or oversold reading — the price is simply in the lower half of the recent volatility range.Key interpretations:
The bands are expanded, reflecting ongoing volatility after the drop from the 2025 highs.The lower band (~$58,700) and the psychological $60,000 level act as near-term support zones.The middle band (~$74,000) is the first meaningful resistance. A decisive close above it would signal short-term bullish momentum.
Combined 200 EMA + Bollinger Bands View
The setup is bearish on the macro (well below 200 EMA) but neutral-to-mildly constructive on the short term (inside Bollinger Bands, no extreme extension).
Traders often watch for:
Bounce plays near the lower band + 200 EMA reclaim (major reversal signal).Mean-reversion toward the middle band as short-term resistance.A squeeze (band width contracting sharply) would signal an impending volatility explosion — not present yet.
Recent price action shows consolidation in the $66,000–$70,000 zone after a steep decline, with the 200 EMA remaining a distant ceiling.Chart IllustrationsHere are recent and historical Bitcoin charts highlighting the 200 EMA and/or Bollinger Bands for visual context:
Summary: The 200 EMA confirms a bearish long-term regime, while the Bollinger Bands show BTC is not yet at an extreme oversold level. The next key levels to watch are support at ~$58,700–$60,000 and resistance at ~$74,000 (BB middle). A sustained move above the 200 EMA would be the strongest bullish development. Always combine with volume, on-chain data, and risk management.
#200EMA #BTC200EMA #BollingerSignal #BollingerBands #MarketRebound