Perspective ale comunității și sentimentul pieței #bitcoincycles

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When long term channel resistance aligns with a round number, volatility usually follows 🚨⬆️ Bitcoin has once again demonstrated its cyclical nature in the current market phase The chart of the BTCUSDT perpetual contract (monthly timeframe) highlights a striking parallel: Bitcoin is currently down roughly -52% from its recent all-time high, mirroring the drawdown seen in the previous cycle before the major bounce and recovery began.In the 2021 bull run, Bitcoin peaked around $69,000 in November 2021 It then entered a prolonged bear market, dropping approximately -52% (to levels around $33,000–$35,000) by mid-2022, before the steeper leg down to the ultimate bottom near $15,500 (total drawdown ~77–78%) That intermediate -52% point marked a phase of significant capitulation, yet it preceded the multi-month consolidation and eventual strong rebound into new highs as macro conditions improved and adoption grew.Fast-forward to the 2025 cycle: Bitcoin surged to a peak of approximately $126,000 in October 2025, driven by institutional inflows, ETF momentum, and broader risk-on sentiment . Now, in February 2026, the price hovers around $69,000 (with recent trading between ~$68,900–$70,900), reflecting a drawdown of about -52% to -55% from that high—eerily similar to the prior cycle's intermediate correction level This isn't coincidence; Bitcoin's history shows deep but decreasing severity drawdowns across cycles as the asset matures:2011 cycle: ~93% drawdown 2013–2017: ~84–87% 2017–2021: ~83–84% 2021–2022: ~77% The pattern suggests bear markets become less punishing over time due to larger market cap, institutional participation, and reduced leverage extremes. A -52% pullback today aligns with historical "healthy" corrections within bull-to-bear transitions, often occurring before final capitulation or reversal The chart annotations emphasize this symmetry: previous deep drops (e.g., -52.44% and -52.60% zones) preceded explosive recoveries once sentiment bottomed and liquidity returned The current "?" oval near the dotted line at ~$70,000 (close to prior ATH support) raises the key question—will this level hold as accumulation begins, or extend lower toward cycle-average bottoms (potentially 65–75% total drawdown, implying $30,000–$45,000 range)?For long-term holders, this phase echoes past opportunities The -52% mark has historically been a point of reflection rather than the end—often where weak hands exit and strong conviction builds While macro risks (regulation, liquidity shifts) remain, Bitcoin's track record shows resilience: every major drawdown has eventually given way to new all-time highs, rewarding patience through volatility Whether this cycle fully repeats the pattern or evolves due to maturation, the current -52% drawdown invites comparison and cautious optimism. History doesn't guarantee repetition, but it rhymes strongly here—suggesting the bounce could emerge once fear peaks and fundamentals reassert #MarketRebound #BitcoinCycles #MarketCorrection $BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT)

When long term channel resistance aligns with a round number, volatility usually follows 🚨

⬆️ Bitcoin has once again demonstrated its cyclical nature in the current market phase

The chart of the BTCUSDT perpetual contract (monthly timeframe) highlights a striking parallel: Bitcoin is currently down roughly -52% from its recent all-time high, mirroring the drawdown seen in the previous cycle before the major bounce and recovery began.In the 2021 bull run, Bitcoin peaked around $69,000 in November 2021

It then entered a prolonged bear market, dropping approximately -52% (to levels around $33,000–$35,000) by mid-2022, before the steeper leg down to the ultimate bottom near $15,500 (total drawdown ~77–78%)

That intermediate -52% point marked a phase of significant capitulation, yet it preceded the multi-month consolidation and eventual strong rebound into new highs as macro conditions improved and adoption grew.Fast-forward to the 2025 cycle: Bitcoin surged to a peak of approximately $126,000 in October 2025, driven by institutional inflows, ETF momentum, and broader risk-on sentiment
. Now, in February 2026, the price hovers around $69,000 (with recent trading between ~$68,900–$70,900), reflecting a drawdown of about -52% to -55% from that high—eerily similar to the prior cycle's intermediate correction level

This isn't coincidence;

Bitcoin's history shows deep but decreasing severity drawdowns across cycles as the asset matures:2011 cycle: ~93% drawdown
2013–2017: ~84–87%
2017–2021: ~83–84%
2021–2022: ~77%

The pattern suggests bear markets become less punishing over time due to larger market cap, institutional participation, and reduced leverage extremes. A -52% pullback today aligns with historical "healthy" corrections within bull-to-bear transitions, often occurring before final capitulation or reversal

The chart annotations emphasize this symmetry: previous deep drops (e.g., -52.44% and -52.60% zones) preceded explosive recoveries once sentiment bottomed and liquidity returned The current "?" oval near the dotted line at ~$70,000 (close to prior ATH support) raises the key question—will this level hold as accumulation begins, or extend lower toward cycle-average bottoms (potentially 65–75% total drawdown, implying $30,000–$45,000 range)?For long-term holders, this phase echoes past opportunities

The -52% mark has historically been a point of reflection rather than the end—often where weak hands exit and strong conviction builds

While macro risks (regulation, liquidity shifts) remain, Bitcoin's track record shows resilience: every major drawdown has eventually given way to new all-time highs, rewarding patience through volatility

Whether this cycle fully repeats the pattern or evolves due to maturation, the current -52% drawdown invites comparison and cautious optimism. History doesn't guarantee repetition, but it rhymes strongly here—suggesting the bounce could emerge once fear peaks and fundamentals reassert

#MarketRebound #BitcoinCycles #MarketCorrection

$BTC

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