Triggering Context
On February 28, 2026, the American-Israeli military operation "Epic Fury" against Iran led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz - triggering a major global economic shock.
Why This Strait Is So Critical
Only 33 km wide, it channels 31% of global seaborne oil flows, 20% of LNG trade, and 30% of the world's aviation fuel supply. The closure was amplified by Lloyd's of London withdrawing shipping insurance coverage, immobilizing over 150 tankers by March 3rd.
Iran's Strategy
Iran possesses a formidable asymmetric military doctrine: fast boat swarms, long-range anti-ship missiles, and over 2,000 advanced naval mines. However, this strategy comes at a cost - Iran is also cutting off its own export revenues from China and India, at a time when it is already battered by heavy sanctions and widespread internal protests since December 2025.
Economic Consequences
Brent crude surged by +15% in the first trading sessions, surpassing $82/barrel with projections reaching up to $150 if the blockade is prolonged. Global supply chains are severely disrupted, with the Cape of Good Hope rerouting adding 2 to 3 weeks of transit time. The risk of global stagflation is real, placing central banks in a near-impossible dilemma.
Asian economies are the most exposed - Japan relies on the strait for 75% of its oil, South Korea for 60%, and countries like Bangladesh for nearly 99% of their LNG.
Geopolitical Stakes
The United States' unilateral action, taken without consulting European allies, has weakened NATO and called American hegemonic leadership into question. According to Robert Gilpin's theory, this crisis could accelerate the transition toward a multipolar world.
In short, the Strait of Hormuz acts as the "aorta of the global economy" - its closure exposes the fragility of global interdependencies and the urgent need for multilateral diplomacy to prevent a worldwide recession.
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