Current Price: $612.81
Timeframe: 4H
RSI(6): 33.29 (near oversold)
MA(7): 620.55
MA(25): 618.85
MA(99): 674.79
🔎 Technical Overview
1️⃣ Trend Structure
Price is trading below MA(7) and MA(25) → short-term bearish.
MA(99) is far above price (~674) → strong higher-timeframe downtrend.
Lower highs visible from 645 → 635 → 628 zone.
Immediate support near $608–610 (recent 4H low 608.82).
2️⃣ Momentum
RSI at 33 → approaching oversold territory.
Suggests potential short-term bounce, but trend remains bearish.
3️⃣ Volume
Volume declining on recent drop → selling pressure slowing.
Indicates possible short-term consolidation before next move.
📊 Intraday Trading Scenarios
Because RSI is near oversold and price is sitting near support, two setups are valid:
🟢 Scenario 1: Short-Term Bounce (Counter-Trend Long)
Condition: Price holds above $608 and reclaims $616–618.
✅ Entry:
$615 – $618 (on bullish 4H or strong 1H confirmation)
🛑 Stop-Loss:
$605 (below key support)
🎯 Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: $624
TP2: $630
TP3 (extended): $638
Risk/Reward: ~1:2 to 1:3
This is a quick scalp-type trade.
🔴 Scenario 2: Trend Continuation Short (Higher Probability)
Trend is still bearish overall.
Condition: Rejection near MA(7)/MA(25) zone (~618–622).
✅ Entry:
$618 – $622 (on bearish rejection candle)
🛑 Stop-Loss:
$630
🎯 Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: $608
TP2: $600
TP3: $588
Risk/Reward: ~1:2.5
This setup aligns with dominant trend.
📌 Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: 618 – 622
Major Resistance: 630
Support: 608
Breakdown Level: 600
Major Support: 588
🏆 Preferred Setup
Short positions near 618–622 offer better probability because:
Price is below key moving averages
Higher timeframe trend is bearish
MA(99) still far above → macro downtrend intact
⚠️ Risk Management Tip:
Use maximum 1–2% capital risk per trade. Wait for confirmation candle — avoid entering mid-candle.
If you want, I can also provide a leverage-adjusted futures setup (5x/10x risk model).
