CPI Softens, Fed Cut Bets Rise — What’s Next for XAU?
Gold markets have been volatile over the last few sessions.
On Feb 13, Gold sharply dropped to the $4,900 zone, triggering concerns of a deeper correction. Analysts attributed that move to technical + flow factors, not a clear macro shock.
Now?
Gold has stabilized and is trading near $4,975–$5,030 range.
This is no longer panic. This is structure.
Current Market Snapshot (Live Context)
XAUUSDT (Perp - Binance)
• Last Price: ~$4,975–$4,980
• 24H High: ~$5,042
• 24H Low: ~$4,970
• 21-day SMA: ~$4,973 (Immediate dynamic support)
• RSI (14-day): ~54 (Neutral momentum)
Technically:
✔ 21-day SMA above 50, 100 & 200 SMAs
✔ All major SMAs sloping upward
✔ Medium-term trend remains bullish
✔ Momentum normalized after recent spike
This is consolidation inside an uptrend, not structural breakdown.
What Triggered the Volatility?
The key macro driver:
US CPI slowdown January Data:
• MoM CPI: +0.2% (vs 0.3% expected)
• Annual CPI: 2.4% (vs 2.5% expected)
• Core CPI: 0.3% (in line)
Impact:
• Bond yields fell
• USD weakened
• Fed rate cut bets increased
Futures markets now price:
• ~68% chance of June rate cut
• ~62 bps easing expected this year
Soft inflation = supportive for non-yielding assets like Gold.
Technical Levels That Matter
Measured from:
High: ~$5,597
Low: ~$4,401
Key retracement zones:
• 50% level → ~$4,999
• 61.8% level → ~$5,141
Currently: Gold is hovering just below the 50% retracement.
This area acts as:
🔹 Psychological barrier
🔹 Technical resistance
🔹 Momentum decision zone
If price closes firmly above $5,050–$5,100 → continuation likely. If rejected → range trade between $4,970–$5,050.
Derivatives Insight:
Open Interest: Recently cooled from highs but stabilizing. Top Trader Long/Short Ratio: Accounts leaning long Positions more balanced
This tells us:
• No extreme leverage build-up yet
• No panic liquidation cascade
• Market positioning relatively controlled
Volatility compression phase in progress.
Macro Backdrop
Other important context:
• Chinese New Year liquidity thinner
• US GDP data pending
• Geopolitical tensions uncertain
• AI-driven capital rotation affecting broader risk sentiment
But structurally: Rate cut expectations support gold. USD weakness supports gold. Bond yields declining support gold. Macro alignment is not bearish.
Trader Perspective
Short-Term Traders: Expect range-bound volatility between $4,970 and $5,100. Watch bond yields + USD index.
Swing Traders: As long as price holds above 21-day SMA (~$4,973), bias remains constructive.
Position Traders: Medium-term structure intact. 50/100-day SMA alignment remains bullish.
Breakdown risk only increases if: Daily close below ~$4,950 with rising yields.
So Is the Worst Over?
The sharp drop to $4,900 appears more like:
✔ Technical flush
✔ Liquidity sweep
✔ Flow-driven reset
Not a macro reversal.
Gold is now: Consolidating, Digesting CPI data, Waiting for next catalyst. This is typically how trends pause — not how they end.
Conclusion
Gold remains structurally bullish but tactically cautious.
• Inflation cooling
• Fed easing expectations rising
• SMAs aligned bullish
• RSI neutral
• Volatility compressing
The next decisive move will depend on: Bond yield direction, USD strength/weakness, Upcoming GDP data, Break above $5,100 resistance
Until then: This looks like consolidation within strength. Not collapse.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
Educational purpose only. Not financial advice. Always manage risk and use proper position sizing.
#CPIWatch #FedWatch #RateCutExpectations #BinanceSquareTalks
