Lately, I’ve been looking at Ethereum and the daily structure is pretty clearlower highs, lower lows, and a clean descending channel. Momentum is still favoring sellers. Every bounce into resistance feels like supply stepping in, not fresh breakout energy.
But here’s where it gets interesting.
On-chain tells a slightly different story.
Over 30% of $ETH supply is now staked. That’s a massive float reduction. At the same time, daily transactions recently pushed toward multi-million levels again, and active addresses remain strong. So while price looks weak technically, the network itself isn’t dying it’s actually active.
That creates tension.
Technically bearish. Fundamentally compressing supply.
For the next 1–2 months, here’s how I’m thinking about it:
Base Case (Most Likely):
We continue drifting lower inside the daily downtrend. If macro risk-off continues or BTC weakens, ETH could sweep deeper support zones before real accumulation steps in. Until we break the descending trendline and reclaim higher resistance levels, recover are suspect.
Alternative Scenario:
If we see sustained exchange outflows + a daily close that flips structure (strong reclaim of major resistance), sentiment could shift fast. ETH moves violently when structure flips.
What I’m not doing? Blindly buying every dip.
What I’m also not doing? Panic shorting into major support.
This feels like a compression phase either distribution before another leg down, or quiet positioning before a reversal. The next structural break decides.
Right now, patience > prediction.
Would you treat this as gathering… or continuation?
