📊 Current Market Context (4H)
Price: 612.84
24H High / Low: 642.49 / 610.17
MA(7): 628.93
MA(25): 618.65
MA(99): 681.93
🔎 Technical Observations
Trend Structure
Price is trading below MA(7) and MA(25) → short-term bearish.
Price is far below MA(99) → broader 4H trend still under long-term pressure.
MA(7) is below MA(25) → bearish crossover already active.
Recent Price Action
Rejection near 630–635 zone.
Strong red candles pushing price toward 610 support.
Lower highs forming → short-term downtrend structure.
Key Levels
Immediate resistance: 618–620 (MA25 area)
Major resistance: 628–635
Immediate support: 610
Next support: 600
Major support: 587 (previous 4H swing low)
📉 Primary Intraday Bias: Bearish (Sell on Pullback)
Momentum favors continuation lower unless 620 is reclaimed.
🔴 SHORT SETUP (Higher Probability)
✅ Entry Options:
Option 1 – Pullback Entry (Preferred)
Entry: 618–622 zone
(Retest of MA25 / broken support)
Option 2 – Breakdown Entry
Entry: Below 608 (4H confirmation close or strong breakdown candle)
🛑 Stop-Loss:
Conservative: 632
Aggressive: 625
(Above recent lower high structure)
🎯 Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: 600
TP2: 592
TP3: 585–587
Risk-to-reward:
Pullback short gives approx 1:2 to 1:3 R:R
🟢 Counter-Trend LONG Setup (Lower Probability)
Only valid if price reclaims 622 with strong bullish volume.
✅ Entry:
623–625 after bullish confirmation candle
🛑 Stop-Loss:
608
🎯 Targets:
TP1: 635
TP2: 645
This is a scalp against 4H momentum — manage risk tightly.
📌 Trade Management Notes
If price consolidates above 620 for multiple 4H candles → bearish setup weakens.
If 600 breaks with volume → expect fast move toward 587.
Watch volume spikes near 610 — could trigger bounce.
🔥 Best Setup Right Now:
👉 Wait for a pullback to 618–622 and short with SL above 630.
If you'd like, I can also:
Add a scalping plan (15m/1H refinement)
Or create a risk-adjusted position sizing plan
Or map a full intraday execution strategy (with trailing stops)
