dxy

🗓️ Po silnym raporcie NFP w USA, oczekiwania na wkrótce zapowiedziane cięcia stóp procentowych Federal Reserve zostały przesunięte. Rynki teraz widzą czerwiec jako najwcześniejszy realistyczny początek luzowania.
🗓️ Inflacja CPI jest kolejnym kluczowym czynnikiem wyzwalającym. Inflacja pozostaje powyżej celu Fed wynoszącego 2%, a nadchodzący odczyt ma być nieco niższy o około 0,1%
🗓️ Ramy reakcji rynku są jasne:
🔥 Gorący CPI: wzmacnia pogląd "wyższe przez dłużej", wspierający DXY, negatywny dla akcji.
💧 Chłodny CPI: przywraca oczekiwania na wczesne cięcia, obciążając DXY i wspierając aktywa ryzykowne.

Last night I was reading a thread about Russia possibly shifting back toward dollar based settlements. Many people instantly said this is bad for gold. Bad for stocks. Bad for crypto.

But markets are not that simple.

For the past few years the big narrative was de dollarization. Countries reducing reliance on the US dollar. Buying gold. Selling treasuries. Creating alternative trade systems. That story helped gold rally. It also supported Bitcoin because when trust in fiat drops people look for alternatives.

Now imagine that story starts reversing.

If major economies move back toward the dollar, global USD demand increases. When demand increases price strengthens. And historically when the dollar gets strong, risk assets feel pressure.

This is where things get interesting.

When global trade flows shift toward the dollar, liquidity tightens outside the US. Emerging markets feel stress first. Commodities slow down. Speculative assets become unstable.

Gold usually performs best when people fear currency debasement. If the dollar regains strength, that fear reduces. That can slow gold momentum.

Bitcoin is slightly different.

Bitcoin is no longer only an inflation hedge. It behaves like a liquidity asset. When global liquidity expands, Bitcoin runs. When liquidity tightens sharply, Bitcoin reacts.

But here is the part most people ignore.

A stronger dollar can also mean stability. If inflation cools because energy supply improves and global tensions reduce, then the Federal Reserve becomes less aggressive. That removes policy fear from markets.

Lower inflation plus policy clarity is not always bearish.

Short term markets may panic. Long term they adjust.

Gold could struggle if real yields rise and inflation falls. Stocks might dip if dollar spikes quickly. Crypto could see volatility if liquidity tightens fast.

But if certainty improves and recession fears decline, risk assets usually recover.

Look at history. In 2023 Bitcoin rallied despite rate hikes. Markets price future conditions, not current headlines. Traders focus on direction of policy, not just level of rates.

If inflation falls and the Fed signals stability, capital rotates back into growth assets.

Now think about psychology.

Macro headlines create instant fear. Social media amplifies that fear. People assume worst case scenario. They overreact.

The first move after a headline is emotional. The second move is structural.

If the dollar spikes aggressively, expect short term pain.
If the dollar strengthens gradually with falling inflation, markets may stabilize quicker than expected.

Gold depends heavily on instability narrative.
Crypto depends on liquidity and adoption narrative.
Stocks depend on earnings and economic confidence.

They are connected but not identical.

Another key factor is capital rotation.

Money does not disappear. It moves. If metals weaken, funds rotate into equities. If equities overheat, capital may shift into crypto. Institutional money follows risk adjusted return.

So is a stronger dollar good or bad

Short term it often pressures risk assets.
Medium term it depends on inflation and policy.
Long term adoption trends matter more than currency headlines.

For gold this shift could be heavier because its strength relies strongly on debasement fear.
For crypto it could mean volatility but not necessarily structural damage.
For equities it depends on earnings growth versus dollar pressure.

The real mistake is reacting emotionally.

Instead of asking will gold crash or will crypto die, ask these questions

Is inflation cooling
Is the Fed becoming less hawkish
Is liquidity stabilizing
Is global uncertainty declining

Those factors matter more than a single geopolitical shift.

Markets move in cycles of fear and clarity.

Right now the debate creates fear. But clarity creates opportunity.

Strong dollar does not automatically kill crypto. It does not automatically destroy stocks. It changes flow dynamics.

If stability increases, the mid to long term setup for risk assets can actually improve after initial volatility.

That is why I never chase first move. I watch structure.

And in markets structure always speaks louder than headlines.
$BTC $XAU $ETH
#USDOLLAR #DXY #bitcoin #GOLD #CPIWatch