Rising oil prices are shaking global markets, but the U.S. is largely insulated and bitcoin seems to be riding the wave alongside Wall Street.
Oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel amid conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel, pressuring global markets but leaving bitcoin largely unchanged around $67,000.
Bitcoin is increasingly trading like a U.S. risk asset, buoyed by the relative resilience of Wall Street, America’s status as a net oil exporter and growing institutional access through spot ETFs.
While U.S. energy independence may delay the impact of higher oil prices at the gas pump, a prolonged conflict and sustained oil spike could eventually feed into American inflation and consumer costs.
The week-long war between Iran, the U.S., and Israel has pushed oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic past $100 a barrel, threatening to inject inflation into the global economy. Asian markets are taking a hit, bond yields are climbing, and yet bitcoin
$68,953.70
has barely budged, hovering around $67,000, where it was 24 hours ago.
A likely reason? Bitcoin's strong links to Wall Street. Since the conflict started last week, U.S. stocks have held up relatively well compared to Asian and European equities, probably benefiting from America’s position as a net oil exporter. Bitcoin, which closely tracks U.S. tech and Nasdaq moves, seems to have caught some of that same resilience.
"The United States is not meaningfully exposed to oil from Iran, or, more broadly, the Middle East," JP Morgan's Executive Director Kriti Gupta and Global Investment Strategist Justin Beimann said in a note to clients Friday, noting the relative strength of the U.S. stocks.
They explained that the U.S. imports oil mostly from Canada and Mexico, and just 4% from Saudi Arabia, and that it is now the world's largest net oil exporter. This means the U.S. is largely insulated from disruptions to oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, while China and other Asian countries, such as India and South Korea, are most affected.