What's Happening?
The US-Israel war against Iran has spread across the Middle East, threatening to plunge the global economy into chaos, with Gulf energy exporters dragged into the conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz
This narrow passage handles approximately 21–22 million barrels per day of petroleum — roughly 20–21% of global oil consumption — and serves as the primary export corridor for Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar. It is now effectively closed.
Oil Prices Surging
Oil prices have jumped to as high as $119 a barrel — the highest since 2022 — as the Strait of Hormuz remains all but closed and attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East have forced output cuts.
LNG Crisis
Countries across Europe and Asia are facing a potential energy crisis after an Iranian drone strike shut down Qatar's LNG exports, cutting off nations from India to Italy from a crucial energy source.
Global Economic Impact
Global stocks have shed $3.2 trillion in value, with fears of a 2026 recession mounting as oil nears $85 (and now beyond). The blockade has halted 20% of global LNG and oil flows.
Structural Vulnerabilities Too
Even before the war, the global energy sector was under pressure — nearly a quarter of new energy capacity worldwide was being held back by grid bottlenecks, permitting delays, and regulatory uncertainty.
Bottom line: A perfect storm of geopolitical conflict, infrastructure disruption, and structural energy weaknesses is pushing the world toward a serious energy and inflation shock in 2026.
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