After identifying several key shifts in bitcoin’s market structure, including lower volatility, larger market cap, and institutional adoption, it is important to examine how these changes have affected various data sets. $BTC
There are many different approaches to compare bitcoin’s historical cycles, but this analysis will focus strictly on the period in each cycle when the percentage of addresses in profit first exceeded 95% to the instance where it last remained above 95%. Using this strict framework allows for a clearer understanding of each bull market environment and helps to identify potential deviations in the current cycle.
More specifically, the following timeframes will be compared:
2013 Cycle: January 21, 2013 – December 4, 2013
2017 Cycle: June 12, 2016 – January 6, 2018
2021 Cycle: August 1, 2020 – November 15, 2021
2025 Cycle: February 26, 2024 – October 26, 2025
The first metric reviewed was bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV). This compares bitcoin’s market value to realized value over time by dividing market cap by realized cap (realized cap representing the total amount of capital invested in an asset).
The data in this current cycle reflects a notably stable bitcoin as its market cap has remained roughly twice the realized cap throughout most of the bull market. When compared with previous cycles, as seen on the chart “Bitcoin’s Entity-Adjusted Market Value to Realized Value,” past cycles appear more erratic, exhibiting pronounced shifts to the upside during high-profit conditions:
This means that over the last year and a half, bitcoin has largely been valued within a reasonable range relative to the total capital invested. Despite elevated profit levels, the market cap has primarily remained between two to three times the realized cap.
By comparison, during the 2013 bull market, bitcoin’s market cap reached six times the value of realized cap. Moreover, the 2017 and 2021 cycles both saw market cap reach four times the value of realized cap.
The 2025 cycle’s more subdued activity offers insight into how bitcoin may be behaving differently as a larger, more liquid asset. If bitcoin’s market cap were to reach even four times the value of realized cap this cycle, it would imply a market cap of roughly $4.5 trillion and a bitcoin price of roughly $225,000 as of February 2, 2026.
The next metric that signals the possibility of a more mature bitcoin market is the Puell Multiple, which is calculated by dividing the value of the daily issuance of bitcoin by the value of the 365-day moving average of daily issuance.
By incorporating bitcoin’s annual supply issuance, the Puell Multiple provides an effective gauge as to whether significant price deviations have occurred within the past year. As demonstrated in the chart “Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple,” the metric has remained remarkably close to one throughout the current cycle. This means that the value of the daily issuance has not deviated much from the 365-day moving average.
Moreover, from the 2013 cycle to today, each successive cycle has had less dramatic swings, showing the maturation of bitcoin over the years and making the current cycle appear comparatively restrained.
Lastly, the Fidelity Digital Assets Research team created a new metric, the “Profit to Volatility Ratio.” This metric calculates the percentage of bitcoin addresses in profit divided by one-year realized volatility, providing insight into the overall stability of the bitcoin market over time.
A measurement above 0.01 can be considered very stable, as achieving such a result requires both generally high profit and generally low volatility. Conversely, a measurement below 0.01 should be viewed with caution, as it indicates that profit is falling swiftly, volatility is swiftly rising, or a combination of both.
As shown in the chart “Bitcoin’s Profit to Volatility Cycles,” each previous cycle has seen this ratio trend lower over time, driven largely by rising volatility, given that this analysis focuses on periods of high profit.
This is very different compared to the current cycle, where persistently high profit is occurring alongside declining volatility. To reiterate, in each previous cycle, the downward trajectory of this metric suggested increasing volatility as profit persisted, a pattern more akin to traditional boom-and-bust dynamics. However, the current data reflects a divergence in behavior.
If this cycle is indeed different, as the data suggests, and a classic boom-bust pattern is not the likely outcome, it would be reasonable to anticipate that the chances of a prolonged bear market are lower as well.
In fact, the notable stability showcased over the last year and a half may suggest that while bitcoin is not rising to dramatic new heights, it is also avoiding steep lows. In an extended environment of high profit and low volatility, bitcoin may simply grind higher over time without the extreme swings that defined earlier cycles.
Lastly, when examining the full history of the “Bitcoin’s Profit to Volatility Ratio” chart, it can be seen that the ratio has remained above 0.015 since late 2023. This suggests a more stable bitcoin for over two years, the longest sustained period at these levels in the asset’s history. Moreover, bitcoin remains well above the 0.01 threshold identified earlier, even as a recent downturn in price brought the asset below $70,000 as of February 2026.
